Boston College '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.10 (fleet 2.93) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–24 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 15–18 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 7–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (46 matches) the record is 22–24 against 23.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-26 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | skipper | 2.34 | 0.06 | 9–7 | 13.2 | −2.28 | 7.4 | >99% |
| 2022-03-19 | Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.24 | 2.53 | 6–11 | 5.2 | +0.29 | 0.2 | 41% |
| 2021-03-27 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 1.92 | 3.83 | 6–2 | 3.9 | +1.91 | 2.9 | 6% |
| 2021-03-07 | St. Mary's TR Opener | skipper | 1.68 | 1.46 | 1–4 | 1.1 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 77% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.4 | 2.45 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 13 | 31% | — |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| Boston University Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.5 | 3.22 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.6 | 3.20 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| St. Mary's Spring Opener | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.4 | 1.15 |
| Salve Regina Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 9 | 14.9 | — |
| St. Mary's TR Opener | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 9 | 13.1 | 1.33 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.0 | 1.25 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Francis Selldorff |  Belmont Hill School |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
