St. Mary's Spring Opener

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 68
2 Boston College Boston College Eagles 1 73
3 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 114
4 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 138
5 Boston College Boston College Eagles 3 145
6 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 151
7 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 152
8 Boston College Boston College Eagles 2 155
9 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 192
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 A 4 5 10 5 2 1 1 28 Lewis Cooper '21
Sophia Taczak '21
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 A 3 2 7 2 10 5 4 33 Matt Logue '22
Allison Forsyth '22
Boston College Boston College Eagles 1 A 6 11 1 3 7 4 2 34 Colleen O'Brien '24
Declan Mcgranahan '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 B 8 6 2 1 1 14 3 35 Soenke Jordan '21
Ruby Gordon '23
Boston College Boston College Eagles 1 B 2 1 9 6 8 7 6 39 Robert Hunter '22
Nicole Moeder '22
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 B 7 8 6 13 3 11 8 56 Keiran James Golden '24
Ellie Sekowski '23
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 A 16 10 5 7 BYE 2 10 58 Hunter Cutting '21
Sam Muir '22
Boston College Boston College Eagles 3 A 1 3 3 11 11 15 RAF 63 Jack Denatale '22
Mikayla Mathieu '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 A 10 14 8 8 6 9 9 64 Michael Ehnot '22
Genevieve Mumma '24
Boston College Boston College Eagles 2 A 11 4 11 10 13 6 11 66 Francis Selldorff '23
Mikayla Mathieu '22
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 B 5 17 16 12 4 3 16 73 Katherine Bennett '22 [1-6]
Lucas Masiello '23 [7]
Rachel O'Neill '24 [1-6]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 A 18 9 14 9 5 10 13 78 Gloria Kevliciute '21
Laura Dennison '21
Boston College Boston College Eagles 3 B 13 7 4 18 15 13 12 82 Libby Redmond '24
Laura Ferraris '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 A 12 13 12 15 9 12 15 88 John Deruff '21
Sydney Register '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 B 14 16 13 14 16 8 7 88 Chiara Perotti Correa '22
Mikaela Smith '22
Boston College Boston College Eagles 2 B 15 15 17 4 17 16 5 89 Katelyn Mcgauley '24
Elizabeth Russell '21
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 B 9 18 15 16 12 17 17 104 Sarah Hardee '22
Taylor Milefchik '22
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 B 17 12 18 17 14 18 14 110 Thomas Walker '21
Allison Gingerich '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (19 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles 11111111
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles 23333333
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles 35555555
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 17777777
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 29999999
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 311111111111111
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 113131313131313
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 215151515151515
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 317171717171717

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles 12222222
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles 24444444
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles 36666666
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 18888888
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 210101010101010
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 312121212121212
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 114141414141414
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 216161616161616
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 318181818181818

Conditions — 03/06/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 45%  ·  Pressure 1021.2 hPa

Temperature

42°F
↑ 45°F   ↓ 34°F
Feels like 33°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.6 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 23.7 kn
From WNW (289°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover44% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1021.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Mary's: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.11 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.29 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →