St. Mary's College of Maryland '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.61 (fleet 2.27) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.04 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–30 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 3–2 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 0–15 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 6–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (44 matches) the record is 14–30 against 24.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−10.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 21 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-12 | St. Mary's Team Race InterConference | skipper | 1.84 | 3.02 | 3–2 | 1.6 | +1.18 | 1.2 | 19% |
| 2021-03-14 | SMC Spring Fling Team Race | skipper | 1.83 | -1.17 | 0–10 | 4.5 | ≤−3.00 | 10.0 | >99% |
| 2021-03-07 | St. Mary's TR Opener | skipper | 1.70 | -1.30 | 0–5 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| 2020-02-29 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 1.62 | 1.04 | 5–4 | 5.8 | −0.58 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 2018-03-17 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.39 | -0.63 | 6–9 | 10.7 | −2.02 | 6.8 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race InterConference | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Navy Spring Regatta | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.6 | 2.04 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Spring Opener | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.3 | 1.87 |
| SMC Spring Fling Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 0% | — |
| SMC Spring Fling | Skipper | B | 5 | 12.2 | 0.53 |
| The Seahawk Wave Showdown | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.0 | — |
| Seahawk Colonial Showdown | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.2 | 1.31 |
| St. Mary's TR Opener | Skipper | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 15 | 15.5 | 0.95 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.8 | 2.45 |
| Chesapeake Invitational Sat 420's | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.1 | 1.87 |
| Caboose Cup Classic | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.0 | 1.61 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.8 | 1.13 |
| Arrigan Memorial Regatta (Sat) | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.3 | 1.90 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | C | 6 | 12.0 | 0.08 |
| Oyster Bowl Fleet 2 | Skipper | B | 8 | 13.6 | -0.59 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.9 | 1.49 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| SMC Quad Fleet Race II Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.0 | 2.80 |
| SMC Quad Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.0 | 1.59 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 18.7 | -0.11 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
