| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 11–4 |
| 2 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 11–4 |
| 3 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 11–4 |
| 4 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 6–9 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 6–9 |
| 6 |  |
Washington College | Shoremen | 0–15 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 14,383 team race matches sailed before 2020-02-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 31 of 45 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.582 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.71 ± 0.28: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 6% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Fordham University | 6.06 | 8.54 | 11–4 | 5.0 | +2.48 | 11.1 | <1% |
| 2 | University of Pennsylvania | 7.70 | 8.26 | 11–4 | 9.8 | +0.56 | 0.5 | 32% |
| 4 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 6.71 | 6.26 | 6–9 | 7.0 | −0.45 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 1 | Georgetown University | 8.91 | 7.85 | 11–4 | 13.2 | −1.06 | 1.8 | 98% |
| 5 | U. S. Naval Academy | 7.73 | 6.12 | 6–9 | 9.7 | −1.61 | 4.3 | >99% |
| 6 | Washington College | 3.06 | 0.06 | 0–15 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Corsig | Fordham University | 2.00 | 5.00 | 3–0 | 2.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 81% |
| Thomas Rice | Fordham University | 0.56 | 3.04 | 11–4 | 5.0 | +2.48 | 11.1 | <1% |
| Clayton Snyder | Fordham University | 2.41 | 4.88 | 8–4 | 2.2 | +2.47 | 10.9 | <1% |
| Samuel Gavula | University of Pennsylvania | 2.25 | 2.81 | 11–4 | 9.8 | +0.56 | 0.5 | 32% |
| William Gallagher | University of Pennsylvania | 2.39 | 2.95 | 11–4 | 9.8 | +0.56 | 0.5 | 32% |
| Hunter Cutting | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 1.62 | 1.04 | 5–4 | 5.8 | −0.58 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Thomas Mccann | Georgetown University | 2.47 | 1.50 | 5–1 | 5.5 | −0.97 | 0.4 | 93% |
| Edward Cook | Georgetown University | 2.30 | 1.23 | 8–4 | 10.2 | −1.07 | 1.8 | 98% |
| Andrew Person | Georgetown University | 3.35 | 2.27 | 9–3 | 10.6 | −1.08 | 1.4 | 97% |
| Andrew Vernon | Washington College | 1.10 | -1.90 | 0–15 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| John Mecca | Washington College | -0.15 | -3.15 | 0–15 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Quakers | Rams | Seahawks | Midshipmen | Shoremen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 5–0 | W | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Washington College Shoremen | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Quakers | Rams | Seahawks | Midshipmen | Shoremen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 2–3 | ✕ | L | W | L | L | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 4–1 | W | ✕ | W | W | L | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 2–3 | W | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–1 | W | W | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Washington College Shoremen | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Quakers | Rams | Seahawks | Midshipmen | Shoremen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Washington College Shoremen | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 DSQ |
| 2 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Rams | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Quakers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Quakers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-3-6 |
| 14 | |
Midshipmen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 2-3-6 |
| 15 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 1-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Quakers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Quakers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Quakers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 1-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 1-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 43 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | Andrew Person '21 Edward Cook '23 Scott Mais '23 Thomas Mccann '22 |
Lucy Beimfohr '21 Grace Flanagan '23 Maya Rabinowitz '21 Eugénie Le Picart '22 |
|
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | Lenox Butcher '20 Samuel Gavula '24 William Gallagher '20 |
Laura Whelan '20 Jenna Weiner '21 Meghan Perez '22 |
|
Fordham University | Rams | Clayton Snyder '22 Grace Howie '20 Kenneth Corsig '23 Thomas Rice '23 |
Lauren Miller '23 Elizabeth Hupp '21 Maggie Costikyan '22 Annika Ekholm '20 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Christopher Booher '20 Hunter Cutting '21 Katherine Bennett '22 Oscar Macgillivray '23 |
Emma Gronda '22 Ryan Lacey '22 Allison Gingerich '21 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Caden Scheiblauer '23 Louis Margay '22 Olivia De Olazarra '22 |
Fiona Lobon '22 Anna Cutler '20 Jack Carminati '22 |
|
Washington College | Shoremen | Andrew Vernon '20 John Mecca '21 Stewart Gurnell '23 |
Andrew Tran '23 Emma Macturk '23 Eloise Lienert '20 Jonathan Kelly '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
