Fordham University '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.48 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–11 (54%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 13–11 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 13–11 against 6.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | skipper | 1.26 | 1.46 | 2–7 | 1.7 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2020-02-29 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 0.56 | 3.04 | 11–4 | 5.0 | +2.48 | 11.1 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
