Fordham University '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.14 (fleet 2.91) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 34–47 (42%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 11–4 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 6–9 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 8–16 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 9–18 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (81 matches) the record is 34–47 against 21.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+12.4). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 24 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-29 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 2.66 | 5.14 | 11–4 | 5.0 | +2.48 | 11.1 | <1% |
| 2019-03-16 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.66 | 2.22 | 6–9 | 7.1 | −0.44 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2018-03-24 | Seahawk Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.23 | 3.90 | 8–16 | 2.5 | +1.67 | 7.4 | <1% |
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.03 | 0.67 | 1–11 | 2.8 | −1.35 | 1.6 | 97% |
| 2017-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.86 | 3.13 | 8–7 | 4.2 | +1.26 | 3.6 | 2% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.6 | 2.67 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Qualifier B Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.0 | 3.15 |
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.8 | — |
| KP Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.6 | 3.78 |
| Jen Harris Women's Showcase Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.5 | 2.61 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.0 | 2.63 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 11.5 | 2.63 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.1 | 2.80 |
| MAISA Spring Women's Dinghy Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.8 | 2.36 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.9 | 2.84 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Final B Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.1 | 3.03 |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.7 | 2.13 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.4 | 3.32 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.1 | 2.28 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.5 | 2.73 |
| Seahawk Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 10 | 0% | — |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 12.9 | 2.49 |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.5 | 2.08 |
| GW Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.5 | 3.28 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.5 | 2.61 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.4 | 3.15 |
| North Fall Qualifier | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.7 | 1.67 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.5 | 3.59 |
| Jesuit Interconference | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.3 | 2.71 |
| Jen Harris Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.1 | 2.91 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.0 | 2.27 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 14.8 | 1.32 |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 13.5 | 0.10 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| Central Spring Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.3 | 1.87 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 13.4 | 1.83 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 13.2 | 1.94 |
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.0 | 1.21 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 11.5 | 1.79 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.6 | 1.93 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Grace Howie |  Coral Gables Senior High |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
