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North Fall Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 10 14 24
2 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 28 19 47
3 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 19 39 58
4 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 35 37 72
5 University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 50 32 82
6 Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 45 43 88
7 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 54 35 89
8 University of Toronto University of Toronto True Blue 46 68 114
9 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 58 60 118
10 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 84 59 143
11 Gannon University Gannon University Knights 67 86 153
12 Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 79 79 158
13 Hamilton College Hamilton College Hamilton 83 MRP 101 MRP 184 MRP
14 University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 97 89 186
15 University of Ottawa University of Ottawa University of Ottawa 119 119 238
16 Royal Military College Royal Military College Paladins 119 119 238
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 10 Hector Guzman '20
Maya Weber '20
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 5 4 1 2 3 2 2 19 Zachary Hill '18
Andreas Adam '18
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 1 8 6 2 6 4 28 Connor Kelter '18 [1-4]
Gerard Eastman '21 [5-7]
Diana Otis '19 [1-4]
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 3 3 5 3 6 7 8 35 Roberto Stevens '19
Cortney Rielly '20
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 9 5 4 4 9 9 5 45 Lauren Sullivan '20
Benjamin Halverson '21
University of Toronto University of Toronto True Blue 8 7 3 7 8 10 3 46 Aleks Vagnesr '19
Ching Fung Li '20
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 6 10 7 5 5 8 9 50 Tyler Rochon '18 [1-4]
Brent Calabresi '20 [5-7]
Jieming Zhang '20 [1-2]
James Emery '18 [3-7]
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 10 8 6 11 7 5 7 54 Liliana Loosbrock '21
Elizabeth Keeney '19
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 11 6 10 12 10 3 6 58 Zachary Warner '19
Diego Becerra '21
Gannon University Gannon University Knights 7 9 9 8 11 11 12 67 Michal Szelwach '19
Samantha Kenyon '20
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 12 12 11 10 12 12 10 79 Kaylie Byrnes '22
Douglas Cochran '21
Hamilton College Hamilton College Hamilton 4 11 13 13 4 4 14 83 MRP James Reynolds '20 [1-4]
Sofia Maeztu '20 [5-7]
Sarah Downey '21 [1-3]
Richard Huiskamp '21 [4-7]
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 13 13 12 9 13 13 11 84 Chloe Headrick '21
Jennifer Suter '19
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 97 Brendan Mccue '21
Raymond Bryant '21
University of Ottawa University of Ottawa University of Ottawa DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 119 No Show
No Show
Royal Military College Royal Military College Paladins DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 119 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 1 1 1 6 1 1 14 Charles Miller '19
Lindsey Kloc '19
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 3 2 3 1 2 3 19 Thomas Balk '18 [1-4]
Sebby Turner '20 [5-7]
Kate Selley '20 [1-4]
Adeline Sutton '21 [5-7]
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 7 4 3 4 2 5 7 32 Scott Mckinney '21
Samara Levy '19
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 2 6 7 7 4 3 6 35 Nicole Edwards '18
Bailey Fryer '18
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 DSQ 5 5 3 4 2 37 Grace Howie '20 [1-4]
Scott Mckenzie '21 [5-7]
Makena Masterson '19 [1-4]
Elizabeth Hupp '21 [5-7]
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 6 5 6 6 5 6 5 39 Juan Lejarraga '19 [1-6]
Aidan Molesky '20 [7]
Brian Buckley '21 [1-6]
Christian Neuman '21 [7]
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 4 2 4 2 10 DSQ 4 43 Scott Gittens '20
Marc De Verteuil '20
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 9 7 9 9 8 9 8 59 Jacob Hare '21
Ruby Garcia '18
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 60 Parker Klebahn '22 [1-4]
John Colby '20 [5-7]
John Lightcap '20 [1-4]
Samuel Mcarthur '20 [5-7]
University of Toronto University of Toronto True Blue 11 11 10 12 7 7 10 68 Avery Schwarz '21
Rudolph Guliani '16
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 10 13 11 13 11 8 13 79 Ben Wilson '19
Tyler Tomasik '20
Gannon University Gannon University Knights 13 10 14 11 12 12 14 86 Andrew Burris '19
Stephen Knouse '19
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 14 12 13 14 13 11 12 89 Max Paikin '21
Rachel Bebak '20
Hamilton College Hamilton College Hamilton 12 9 12 10 14 13 11 101 MRP Michael Moubarak '21 [1-4]
Sarah Keefe '20 [5-7]
Liesl Guenther '21 [1-3]
Roger Dunham '21 [4-5]
Lizzy Ely '21 [6-7]
University of Ottawa University of Ottawa University of Ottawa DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 119 No Show
No Show
Royal Military College Royal Military College Paladins DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 119 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (27 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights12121010886
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls13131515113
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions1133557
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red221616141412
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams3355779
Gannon UniversityGannon University Knights4422161614
Hamilton CollegeHamilton College Hamilton55779911
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen66442216
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers101088664
University of OttawaUniversity of Ottawa University of Ottawa14141212101010
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels7799111115
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers8866442
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets151511335
Royal Military CollegeRoyal Military College Paladins991111131313
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange1111131315151
University of TorontoUniversity of Toronto True Blue1616141412128

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights111199775
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls14141616224
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions2244668
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red111515141411
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams4466887
Gannon UniversityGannon University Knights3311151516
Hamilton CollegeHamilton College Hamilton66889912
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen55331115
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers9977553
University of OttawaUniversity of Ottawa University of Ottawa13131111101010
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels881010121214
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers7755331
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets161622446
Royal Military CollegeRoyal Military College Paladins10101212131313
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange1212141416162
University of TorontoUniversity of Toronto True Blue1515131311119
School / Team SkipperCrew
Columbia University Columbia University Liliana Loosbrock '21 Elizabeth Keeney '19
Lions Nicole Edwards '18 Bailey Fryer '18
Cornell University Cornell University Connor Kelter '18 [1-4]
Gerard Eastman '21 [5-7]		 Diana Otis '19 [1-4]
Big Red Thomas Balk '18 [1-4]
Sebby Turner '20 [5-7]		 Kate Selley '20 [1-4]
Adeline Sutton '21 [5-7]
Fordham University Fordham University Roberto Stevens '19 Cortney Rielly '20
Rams Grace Howie '20 [1-4]
Scott Mckenzie '21 [5-7]		 Makena Masterson '19 [1-4]
Elizabeth Hupp '21 [5-7]
Gannon University Gannon University Michal Szelwach '19 Samantha Kenyon '20
Knights Andrew Burris '19 Stephen Knouse '19
Hamilton College Hamilton College James Reynolds '20 [1-4]
Sofia Maeztu '20 [5-7]		 Sarah Downey '21 [1-3]
Richard Huiskamp '21 [4-7]
Hamilton Michael Moubarak '21 [1-4]
Sarah Keefe '20 [5-7]		 Liesl Guenther '21 [1-3]
Roger Dunham '21 [4-5]
Lizzy Ely '21 [6-7]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hector Guzman '20 Maya Weber '20
Statesmen Charles Miller '19 Lindsey Kloc '19
Queen's University Queen's University Lauren Sullivan '20 Benjamin Halverson '21
Gaels Scott Gittens '20 Marc De Verteuil '20
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Kaylie Byrnes '22 Douglas Cochran '21
Tigers Ben Wilson '19 Tyler Tomasik '20
Royal Military College Royal Military College No Show No Show
Paladins No Show No Show
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Zachary Hill '18 Andreas Adam '18
Privateers Juan Lejarraga '19 [1-6]
Aidan Molesky '20 [7]		 Brian Buckley '21 [1-6]
Christian Neuman '21 [7]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Zachary Warner '19 Diego Becerra '21
Orange Parker Klebahn '22 [1-4]
John Colby '20 [5-7]		 John Lightcap '20 [1-4]
Samuel Mcarthur '20 [5-7]
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Chloe Headrick '21 Jennifer Suter '19
Black Knights Jacob Hare '21 Ruby Garcia '18
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Brendan Mccue '21 Raymond Bryant '21
Bulls Max Paikin '21 Rachel Bebak '20
University of Ottawa University of Ottawa No Show No Show
University of Ottawa No Show No Show
University of Rochester University of Rochester Tyler Rochon '18 [1-4]
Brent Calabresi '20 [5-7]		 Jieming Zhang '20 [1-2]
James Emery '18 [3-7]
Yellowjackets Scott Mckinney '21 Samara Levy '19
University of Toronto University of Toronto Aleks Vagnesr '19 Ching Fung Li '20
True Blue Avery Schwarz '21 Rudolph Guliani '16

Conditions — 09/23/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.5 kn
avg  ·  max 5.3 kn
Gusts to 14.4 kn
From NNW (337°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover9% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1019.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 7 kn · N 7 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Cornell: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →