Cornell University '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.26 (fleet 3.10) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 59–73 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 7 | 47–56 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 2–12 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 10–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (132 matches) the record is 59–73 against 54.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.2). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-26 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.81 | 2.55 | 5–10 | 5.5 | −0.26 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2018-04-07 | Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship | skipper | 2.71 | 2.87 | 9–12 | 8.3 | +0.16 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2018-03-31 | Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.66 | 4.05 | 14–1 | 11.8 | +1.40 | 1.9 | 13% |
| 2018-03-24 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.69 | 2.35 | 3–11 | 3.8 | −0.34 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.71 | 2.42 | 5–11 | 5.7 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2018-03-10 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.75 | 2.71 | 8–9 | 8.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2018-03-03 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 2.63 | 4.75 | 3–2 | 1.1 | +2.12 | 3.1 | 5% |
| 2016-03-12 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.30 | 1.99 | 2–12 | 2.5 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2015-03-21 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.34 | 3.22 | 10–5 | 8.1 | +0.88 | 1.2 | 16% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Thomas Balk |  Lake Forest High School |
'14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
