Washington College Team Race

HostWashington College
Date03/21/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	George Washington University	Colonials	14–1
2	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	10–5
3	Cornell University	Big Red	10–5
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	8–7
5	Webb Institute	Clippers	2–13
6	Washington College	Shoremen	1–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,579 team race matches sailed before 2015-03-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 38 of 45 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.308 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.30 ± 0.28: an orderly event, more orderly than 76% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	George Washington University Colonials	1	9.36 school −0.25	Roger Dorr / Shira Golub 3.23 Brendan Shanahan / Gabriella Malek 2.85 Kai Friesecke / Matthew Homa 3.13	90%	14–1 (93%)	+0.5
2	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	2	8.15 school −0.31	Andrew Bates / Clara Ashton Charles Lomax / Patrick Scollard Max Neubelt / Vincent Storino 2.58 9–3 Ryan Wood / Vincent Storino 1–2	74%	10–5 (67%)	−1.1
3	Cornell University Big Red	3	7.44 school +0.16	Thomas Balk / Ryan Buccellato Daniel Birmingham / Noelle Crough 1.87 Matthew Schofield / Lindsay Gimple 2.78	54%	10–5 (67%)	+1.9
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4	6.47 school +0.10	Connor Swikart / Christine Moloney Noah Barrengos Barrengos / Sarah Warren 6–3 Parker Trepton / Erica Oosterhoff 3–6 William Fortenbaugh / Sarah Warren 2–4 William Fortenbaugh / Erica Oosterhoff 3–0 Noah Barrengos Barrengos / Parker Trepton 2–1	47%	8–7 (53%)	+1.0
5	Webb Institute Clippers	5	5.28 school +0.21	Casey Brown / Ian Lawson 1.85 James Morrissey / Kurt Gavel Sean Walker / Alex Dzinbal	23%	2–13 (13%)	−1.5
6	Washington College Shoremen	6	5.00 school +0.32, home +0.29	Matthew Mcdermaid / Bridgette Hindt 1.64 Hannah Schmidt / Maura Matthews Alexander Smith / Allison Cochran 1.08 1–8 Alexander Smith / Karlyn Long 1.19 0–6	12%	1–14 (7%)	−0.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Cornell University	7.44	8.32	10–5	8.1	+0.88	1.2	16%
1	George Washington University	9.36	9.89	14–1	13.5	+0.53	0.2	52%
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	6.47	6.88	8–7	7.0	+0.41	0.3	37%
2	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	8.15	7.63	10–5	11.1	−0.52	0.4	87%
6	Washington College	5.00	4.17	1–14	1.9	−0.83	0.5	90%
5	Webb Institute	5.28	4.41	2–13	3.5	−0.87	0.9	93%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
William Fortenbaugh	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	0.84	2.32	5–4	2.8	+1.49	2.4	7%
Daniel Birmingham	Cornell University	1.87	2.75	10–5	8.1	+0.88	1.2	16%
Matthew Schofield	Cornell University	2.78	3.65	10–5	8.1	+0.88	1.2	16%
Brendan Shanahan	George Washington University	2.85	3.39	14–1	13.5	+0.53	0.2	52%
Noah Barrengos Barrengos	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	1.87	2.36	8–4	6.9	+0.49	0.4	34%
Max Neubelt	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	2.58	2.60	9–3	9.0	+0.01	0.0	67%
Andrew Bates	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	2.52	2.00	10–5	11.1	−0.52	0.4	87%
Charles Lomax	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	3.13	2.61	10–5	11.1	−0.52	0.4	87%
Matthew Mcdermaid	Washington College	1.64	0.81	1–14	1.9	−0.83	0.5	90%
Alexander Smith	Washington College	1.08	0.25	1–14	1.9	−0.83	0.5	90%
Hannah Schmidt	Washington College	1.19	0.36	1–14	1.9	−0.83	0.5	90%
Casey Brown	Webb Institute	1.85	0.98	2–13	3.5	−0.87	0.9	93%
James Morrissey	Webb Institute	1.36	0.49	2–13	3.5	−0.87	0.9	93%
Ryan Wood	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	0.68	-0.91	1–2	2.1	−1.59	1.3	98%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Washington College	96%
1	2	George Washington University	Cornell University	86%
1	3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Webb Institute	55%
1	4	Cornell University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	29%	upset
1	5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Washington College	91%
1	6	George Washington University	Webb Institute	98%
1	7	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	53%
1	8	George Washington University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	71%
1	9	Webb Institute	Washington College	58%
1	10	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	96%
1	11	Cornell University	Washington College	93%
1	12	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Webb Institute	96%
1	13	George Washington University	Washington College	99%
1	14	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	71%
1	15	Cornell University	Webb Institute	90%
2	16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Washington College	97%
2	17	George Washington University	Cornell University	87%
2	18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Webb Institute	60%
2	19	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Cornell University	76%
2	20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Washington College	91%
2	21	George Washington University	Webb Institute	98%
2	22	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	49%	upset
2	23	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	George Washington University	32%	upset
2	24	Washington College	Webb Institute	42%	upset
2	25	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	96%
2	26	Cornell University	Washington College	92%
2	27	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Webb Institute	96%
2	28	George Washington University	Washington College	99%
2	29	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	29%	upset
2	30	Cornell University	Webb Institute	89%
3	31	George Washington University	Cornell University	87%
3	32	Webb Institute	Washington College	58%
3	33	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	29%	upset
3	34	Cornell University	Washington College	92%
3	35	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	96%
3	36	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Webb Institute	97%
3	37	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Washington College	92%
3	38	Cornell University	Webb Institute	89%
3	39	George Washington University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	67%
3	40	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Webb Institute	61%
3	41	George Washington University	Washington College	99%
3	42	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Cornell University	78%
3	43	George Washington University	Webb Institute	98%
3	44	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	47%	upset
3	45	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Washington College	97%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Colonials	Mariners	Red	Statesmen	Clippers	Shoremen
George Washington University Colonials	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	3–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	4–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Webb Institute Clippers	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Washington College Shoremen	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Colonials	Mariners	Red	Statesmen	Clippers	Shoremen
George Washington University Colonials	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	4–1	W	✕	W	L	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–2	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Webb Institute Clippers	0–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L
Washington College Shoremen	1–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Colonials	Mariners	Red	Statesmen	Clippers	Shoremen
George Washington University Colonials	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	3–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–2	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Webb Institute Clippers	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Washington College Shoremen	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Mariners	2-3-4	def.	Shoremen	1-5-6
2	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
3	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
4	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
5	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
6	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Clippers	3-4-6
7	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
8	Colonials	1-3-5	def.	Mariners	2-4-6
9	Clippers	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
10	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
11	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
12	Mariners	1-2-4	def.	Clippers	3-5-6
13	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
14	Mariners	1-3-4	def.	Statesmen	2-5-6
15	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Clippers	3-5-6
16	Mariners	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
17	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
18	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Clippers	3-5-6
19	Mariners	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
20	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
21	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
22	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
23	Mariners	1-4-5	def.	Colonials	2-3-6
24	Shoremen	1-2-5	def.	Clippers	3-4-6
25	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
26	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
27	Mariners	2-3-4	def.	Clippers	1-5-6
28	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Shoremen	3-4-5
29	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
30	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Clippers	3-5-6
31	Colonials	2-3-6	def.	Big Red	1-4-5 DSQ
32	Clippers	1-3-6	def.	Shoremen	2-4-5
33	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
34	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
35	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
36	Mariners	1-2-5	def.	Clippers	3-4-6
37	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
38	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Clippers	3-4-6
39	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
40	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
41	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
42	Mariners	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
43	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Clippers	1-5-6
44	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Statesmen	2-4-6
45	Mariners	1-2-6	def.	Shoremen	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
George Washington University	Colonials	Brendan Shanahan '17 Kai Friesecke '18 Roger Dorr '18	Gabriella Malek '17 Matthew Homa '18 Shira Golub '18
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	Andrew Bates '15 Charles Lomax '18 Max Neubelt '17 Ryan Wood '17	Clara Ashton '18 Patrick Scollard '17 Vincent Storino '18
Cornell University	Big Red	Daniel Birmingham '17 Matthew Schofield '17 Thomas Balk '18	Noelle Crough '18 Lindsay Gimple '17 Ryan Buccellato '17
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Connor Swikart '18 Noah Barrengos Barrengos '18 Parker Trepton '18 William Fortenbaugh '18	Christine Moloney '17 Parker Trepton '18 Sarah Warren '18 Erica Oosterhoff '18
Webb Institute	Clippers	Casey Brown '16 James Morrissey '17 Sean Walker '18	Ian Lawson '17 Kurt Gavel '16 Alex Dzinbal '17
Washington College	Shoremen	Alexander Smith '17 Hannah Schmidt '17 Matthew Mcdermaid '17	Karlyn Long '17 Allison Cochran '18 Maura Matthews '18 Bridgette Hindt '18

Conditions — 03/21/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 72% · Pressure 1017.5 hPa

Temperature

44°F

↑ 51°F ↓ 33°F

Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.0 kn

avg · max 8.7 kn

Gusts to 18.3 kn

From W (264°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover62% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1017.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Washington College — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Washington College in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled fleet-race days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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