U. S. Merchant Marine Academy '17
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 34.11 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.114 rating points from 15 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.43 (fleet 3.36) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 19–66 (22%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 2–34 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 15–22 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 2–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (85 matches) the record is 19–66 against 26.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−7.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.95 | 2.52 | 1–20 | 1.5 | −0.43 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 2017-03-18 | Graham Hall | skipper | 2.89 | 3.78 | 1–14 | 0.5 | +0.89 | 0.4 | 37% |
| 2015-04-04 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.80 | 1.07 | 2–5 | 4.1 | −1.74 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2015-03-28 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.64 | 1.52 | 4–14 | 7.7 | −1.13 | 2.9 | 99% |
| 2015-03-21 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.58 | 2.60 | 9–3 | 9.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2014-03-29 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.42 | 0.16 | 1–6 | 2.5 | −2.26 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 2014-02-22 | Pirates 3 on 3 | skipper | 2.48 | 1.65 | 1–4 | 1.7 | −0.83 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| Gill Coed College Sailing National Championship | Skipper | B | 17 | 13.3 | 3.01 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.7 | 3.78 |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | A | 17 | 11.9 | 2.54 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | B | 3 | 5.3 | 4.53 |
| 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 5% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial Backup | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.5 | 3.85 |
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | A | 3 | 10.0 | 3.37 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.2 | 3.26 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.7 | 3.61 |
| Kennedy Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 7.7 | — |
| David Lee Arnoff | Skipper | A | 13 | 3.1 | 4.34 |
| Central Fall Qualifier | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.8 | 3.38 |
| 43rd Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.9 | 3.06 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.1 | 3.15 |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 17 | 8.7 | 3.35 |
| St. Mary's College of MD Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.5 | 3.50 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 12.4 | 2.43 |
| MAISA Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | B | 15 | 12.1 | 2.51 |
| Central Fall Qualifier | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.6 | 3.78 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 15 | 14.0 | 2.49 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 22% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 2 | 13.0 | 2.85 |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.5 | 3.75 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.2 | 2.98 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.3 | 3.08 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.2 | 2.50 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.0 | 2.81 |
| McMillan Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 4.7 | — |
| Luce Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.7 | 2.38 |
| Kennedy Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 5.5 | — |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.8 | 2.32 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 13.1 | 2.42 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Pirates 3 on 3 | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.5 | 2.41 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.1 | 2.58 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 11.3 | 2.63 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 15.6 | 2.00 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 11 | 11.2 | 2.52 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.2 | 3.82 |
| North Fall 2 | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.4 | 3.75 |
| North Fall #1 | Crew | B | 9 | 7.6 | — |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Crew | A | 6 | 15.0 | — |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.4 | 2.88 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.2 | 3.07 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
