Admiral Moore Team Race

HostNY Maritime
Date03/28/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	15–3
2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	14–4
3	Roger Williams University	Hawks	11–7
4	Dartmouth College	Big Green	10–8
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	9–9
6	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	8–10
7	George Washington University	Colonials	8–10
8	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	6–12
9	University of Michigan	Wolverines	5–13
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	4–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,801 team race matches sailed before 2015-03-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 59 of 90 matches (66%) with a log-loss of 0.663 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.50 ± 0.23: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 10% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	3	9.82 school −0.15, home +0.25	Zachary Hill / Christopher Whalen 3.85 Nick Valente / Caitlin Cummings 3.62 Austin Buonsignore / Matthew Romanuski 2.21 13–3 John Nothacker / Matthew Romanuski 2.01 2–0	65%	15–3 (83%)	+3.4
2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2	10.39 school +0.08	Greiner Hobbs / Kelly Monahan 3.52 Eddie Cox / Haley Okun 3.32 12–4 Elliott Morrill / Sarah Warren 3.40 12–4 Eddie Cox / Sarah Warren 3.27 2–0 Elliott Morrill / Liana Folger 3.13 2–0	76%	14–4 (78%)	+0.2
3	Roger Williams University Hawks	5	9.05	Martim Anderson / Michael Mcbrien 2.76 Mackenzie Bryan / Rebecca Anderson 2.91 Dirk Johnson / Megan Roach 2.94	48%	11–7 (61%)	+2.4
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	8	8.55 school −0.24	Hunter Johnstone / John Lewis Nathaniel Johansson / Connor Lehan Erik Weis / Mia Steck	37%	10–8 (56%)	+3.4
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	1	10.72 school −0.24	Nikole Barnes / Andrew Britton 3.97 Dana Rohde / Robert Turley Avery Fanning / Hannah Herring 3.85	82%	9–9 (50%)	−5.8
6	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	4	9.38	Stephen Long / Kristina Miller 3.51 Joseph Schiff / Samantha Solem 2.49 Ian Stokes / Ginger Luckey 3.27	56%	8–10 (44%)	−2.0
7	George Washington University Colonials	6	8.92 school −0.21	Roger Dorr / Shira Golub 3.30 Brendan Shanahan / Miranda Bakos 3.22 Sam White / Isabel Strachan	45%	8–10 (44%)	−0.0
8	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	9	8.41 school −0.40	Drew Gallagher / Patricia Andrade 2.82 5–11 Keen Butcher / Carolyn Kearney 4–6 Jack Swikart / Nina Kaledin 3.21 3–7 Keen Butcher / Catie Hopkins 2–6 Jack Swikart / Catie Hopkins 3.49 2–2 Jack Swikart / Carolyn Kearney 3.34 1–3 Drew Gallagher / Nina Kaledin 2.63 1–1	32%	6–12 (33%)	+0.2
9	University of Michigan Wolverines	10	7.58	Christopher Cyr / Lane Tobin 2.39 Thomas Etheridge / Michael Gapuz 1.91 Alex Ramos / Sarah Sloan 3.01	17%	5–13 (28%)	+1.9
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	7	8.82 school −0.41	Max Neubelt / Gabrielle Neubelt 2.64 Charles Lomax / Patrick Scollard 3.35 Andrew Bates / Vincent Storino 2.94 3–9 Andrew Bates / Clara Ashton 2.93 1–5	43%	4–14 (22%)	−3.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	SUNY Maritime College	9.82	10.99	15–3	11.6	+1.17	2.6	6%
4	Dartmouth College	8.55	9.49	10–8	6.6	+0.93	2.3	6%
9	University of Michigan	7.58	8.25	5–13	3.1	+0.68	1.0	17%
3	Roger Williams University	9.05	9.71	11–7	8.6	+0.66	1.2	16%
2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	10.39	10.48	14–4	13.7	+0.09	0.0	58%
8	University of Pennsylvania	8.41	8.46	6–12	5.8	+0.05	0.0	56%
7	George Washington University	8.92	8.92	8–10	8.0	−0.01	0.0	61%
6	University of California at Santa Barbara	9.38	8.85	8–10	10.0	−0.53	0.8	90%
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	8.82	7.69	4–14	7.7	−1.13	2.9	99%
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10.72	9.00	9–9	14.8	−1.72	7.8	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Zachary Hill	SUNY Maritime College	3.85	5.03	15–3	11.6	+1.17	2.6	6%
Nick Valente	SUNY Maritime College	3.62	4.79	15–3	11.6	+1.17	2.6	6%
Austin Buonsignore	SUNY Maritime College	2.21	3.26	13–3	10.3	+1.05	1.9	10%
Hunter Johnstone	Dartmouth College	2.70	3.63	10–8	6.6	+0.93	2.3	6%
Christopher Cyr	University of Michigan	2.39	3.06	5–13	3.1	+0.68	1.0	17%
Thomas Etheridge	University of Michigan	1.91	2.59	5–13	3.1	+0.68	1.0	17%
Alex Ramos	University of Michigan	3.01	3.69	5–13	3.1	+0.68	1.0	17%
Martim Anderson	Roger Williams University	2.76	3.42	11–7	8.6	+0.66	1.2	16%
Eddie Cox	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.32	3.41	14–4	13.7	+0.09	0.0	58%
Elliott Morrill	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.40	3.49	14–4	13.7	+0.09	0.0	58%
Keen Butcher	University of Pennsylvania	2.21	2.26	6–12	5.8	+0.05	0.0	56%
Drew Gallagher	University of Pennsylvania	2.82	2.87	6–12	5.8	+0.05	0.0	56%
Jack Swikart	University of Pennsylvania	3.21	3.25	6–12	5.8	+0.05	0.0	56%
Brendan Shanahan	George Washington University	3.22	3.22	8–10	8.0	−0.01	0.0	61%
Sam White	George Washington University	2.41	2.40	8–10	8.0	−0.01	0.0	61%
Stephen Long	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.51	2.98	8–10	10.0	−0.53	0.8	90%
Joseph Schiff	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.49	1.96	8–10	10.0	−0.53	0.8	90%
Ian Stokes	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.27	2.74	8–10	10.0	−0.53	0.8	90%
Andrew Bates	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	2.94	1.82	4–14	7.7	−1.13	2.9	99%
Max Neubelt	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	2.64	1.52	4–14	7.7	−1.13	2.9	99%
Charles Lomax	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	3.35	2.23	4–14	7.7	−1.13	2.9	99%
Nikole Barnes	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.97	2.25	9–9	14.8	−1.72	7.8	>99%
Avery Fanning	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.85	2.13	9–9	14.8	−1.72	7.8	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	George Washington University	Roger Williams University	53%
1	2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Dartmouth College	92%
1	3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	88%
1	4	SUNY Maritime College	University of Michigan	93%
1	5	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Pennsylvania	75%
1	6	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	65%
1	7	George Washington University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	14%	upset
1	8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Michigan	95%
1	9	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	34%	upset
1	10	SUNY Maritime College	University of California at Santa Barbara	63%
1	11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dartmouth College	92%
1	12	Roger Williams University	University of Michigan	80%
1	13	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	37%	upset
1	14	SUNY Maritime College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	37%	upset
1	15	University of California at Santa Barbara	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	65%
1	16	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Michigan	96%
1	17	Dartmouth College	University of Pennsylvania	54%
1	18	SUNY Maritime College	Roger Williams University	72%
1	19	George Washington University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	54%
1	20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of California at Santa Barbara	67%
1	21	University of Michigan	University of Pennsylvania	34%	upset
1	22	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	30%	upset
1	23	Dartmouth College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	42%	upset
1	24	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	81%
1	25	University of California at Santa Barbara	George Washington University	61%
1	26	SUNY Maritime College	University of Pennsylvania	80%
1	27	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	University of Michigan	78%
1	28	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	43%	upset
1	29	Dartmouth College	George Washington University	40%	upset
1	30	Roger Williams University	University of California at Santa Barbara	41%	upset
1	31	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	69%
1	32	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	88%
1	33	George Washington University	University of Michigan	79%
1	34	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	84%
1	35	University of California at Santa Barbara	Dartmouth College	70%
1	36	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	17%	upset
1	37	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	28%	upset
1	38	Roger Williams University	University of Pennsylvania	67%
1	39	Dartmouth College	University of Michigan	73%
1	40	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of California at Santa Barbara	79%
1	41	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	82%
1	42	Roger Williams University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	56%
1	43	Dartmouth College	SUNY Maritime College	22%	upset
1	44	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10%	upset
1	45	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Michigan	86%
2	46	Roger Williams University	George Washington University	54%
2	47	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Dartmouth College	86%
2	48	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	87%
2	49	SUNY Maritime College	University of Michigan	90%
2	50	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Pennsylvania	70%
2	51	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	61%
2	52	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	George Washington University	86%
2	53	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Michigan	94%
2	54	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	39%	upset
2	55	SUNY Maritime College	University of California at Santa Barbara	61%
2	56	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	11%	upset
2	57	University of Michigan	Roger Williams University	18%	upset
2	58	George Washington University	University of Pennsylvania	60%
2	59	SUNY Maritime College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	36%	upset
2	60	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	University of California at Santa Barbara	37%	upset
2	61	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Michigan	96%
2	62	Dartmouth College	University of Pennsylvania	56%
2	63	SUNY Maritime College	Roger Williams University	67%
2	64	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	George Washington University	48%	upset
2	65	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of California at Santa Barbara	68%
2	66	University of Pennsylvania	University of Michigan	68%
2	67	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	29%	upset
2	68	Dartmouth College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	46%	upset
2	69	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	78%
2	70	University of California at Santa Barbara	George Washington University	61%
2	71	SUNY Maritime College	University of Pennsylvania	78%
2	72	University of Michigan	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	22%	upset
2	73	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	58%
2	74	George Washington University	Dartmouth College	55%
2	75	Roger Williams University	University of California at Santa Barbara	44%	upset
2	76	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	67%
2	77	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	87%
2	78	University of Michigan	George Washington University	22%	upset
2	79	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	17%	upset
2	80	Dartmouth College	University of California at Santa Barbara	34%	upset
2	81	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	82%
2	82	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	30%	upset
2	83	Roger Williams University	University of Pennsylvania	66%
2	84	Dartmouth College	University of Michigan	75%
2	85	University of California at Santa Barbara	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	21%	upset
2	86	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	81%
2	87	Roger Williams University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	57%
2	88	SUNY Maritime College	Dartmouth College	74%
2	89	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10%	upset
2	90	University of Michigan	University of California at Santa Barbara	15%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Privateers	Statesmen	Hawks	Green	Bears	Gauchos	Colonials	Quakers	Wolverines	Mariners
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	7–2	✕	W	W	L	W	W	L	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	7–2	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–4	L	L	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–4	W	L	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5–4	L	L	W	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	5–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	5–4	W	L	W	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	L	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	2–7	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Privateers	Statesmen	Hawks	Green	Bears	Gauchos	Colonials	Quakers	Wolverines	Mariners
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	8–1	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	7–2	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–3	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–4	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–5	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	3–6	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	L
George Washington University Colonials	3–6	W	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L	L
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	4–5	L	L	W	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
2	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
3	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
4	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
5	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
6	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
7	Colonials	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
8	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
9	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
10	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
11	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
12	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
13	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
14	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
15	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
16	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Wolverines	2-3-6
17	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
18	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
19	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
20	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
21	Wolverines	1-3-5	def.	Quakers	2-4-6
22	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
23	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
24	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
25	Gauchos	1-3-5	def.	Colonials	2-4-6
26	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
27	Mariners	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
28	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
29	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
30	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Gauchos	2-5-6
31	Privateers	1-4-5	def.	Mariners	2-3-6
32	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
33	Colonials	1-3-5	def.	Wolverines	2-4-6
34	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
35	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
36	Mariners	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
37	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
38	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
39	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
40	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
41	Statesmen	2-3-5	def.	Colonials	1-4-6
42	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
43	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
44	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
45	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
46	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
47	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
48	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
49	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
50	Gauchos	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
51	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
52	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
53	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
54	Quakers	2-3-5	def.	Mariners	1-4-6
55	Privateers	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
56	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
57	Wolverines	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
58	Colonials	2-3-5	def.	Quakers	1-4-6
59	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
60	Mariners	1-3-4	def.	Gauchos	2-5-6
61	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Wolverines	1-4-6
62	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
63	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
64	Mariners	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
65	Statesmen	1-4-5	def.	Gauchos	2-3-6
66	Quakers	1-4-5	def.	Wolverines	2-3-6
67	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
68	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Mariners	2-5-6
69	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
70	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
71	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
72	Wolverines	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
73	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
74	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
75	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Gauchos	2-4-6
76	Privateers	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
77	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
78	Wolverines	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
79	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
80	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
81	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
82	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
83	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
84	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
85	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
86	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
87	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
88	Privateers	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
89	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
90	Wolverines	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Austin Buonsignore '16 John Nothacker '16 Nick Valente '16 Zachary Hill '18	Matthew Romanuski '16 Caitlin Cummings '18 Christopher Whalen '15
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Eddie Cox '16 Elliott Morrill '15 Greiner Hobbs '18	Haley Okun '18 Sarah Warren '18 Liana Folger '15 Kelly Monahan '18
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Dirk Johnson '18 Mackenzie Bryan '18 Martim Anderson '18	Megan Roach '18 Rebecca Anderson '18 Michael Mcbrien '18
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Erik Weis '18 Hunter Johnstone '16 Nathaniel Johansson '18	Mia Steck '17 John Lewis '17 Connor Lehan '18
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Avery Fanning '16 Dana Rohde '18 Nikole Barnes '17	Hannah Herring '18 Robert Turley '16 Andrew Britton '16
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Ian Stokes '16 Joseph Schiff '17 Stephen Long '17	Ginger Luckey '16 Samantha Solem '15 Kristina Miller '17
George Washington University	Colonials	Brendan Shanahan '17 Roger Dorr '18 Sam White '18	Miranda Bakos '18 Shira Golub '18 Isabel Strachan '18
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Drew Gallagher '18 Jack Swikart '15 Keen Butcher '18	Patricia Andrade '15 Nina Kaledin '16 Catie Hopkins '17 Carolyn Kearney '18
University of Michigan	Wolverines	Alex Ramos '15 Christopher Cyr '16 Thomas Etheridge '16	Sarah Sloan '16 Lane Tobin '18 Michael Gapuz '18
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	Andrew Bates '15 Charles Lomax '18 Max Neubelt '17	Vincent Storino '18 Clara Ashton '18 Patrick Scollard '17 Gabrielle Neubelt '17

Conditions — 03/28/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1010.7 hPa

Temperature

36°F

↑ 38°F ↓ 33°F

Feels like 26°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.3 kn

avg · max 13.3 kn

Gusts to 23.7 kn

From NNW (334°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine5.9 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1010.7 hPa Snow0.08 in

What this breeze does at NY Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at NY Maritime in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at NY Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled fleet-race days at NY Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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