Roger Williams University '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 65.18 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.071 rating points from 392 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.28 (fleet 1.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 105–77 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | — | 17–13 |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | — | 1–4 |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | — | 10–6 |
| Spring 2016 | 3 | — | 34–27 |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | — | 9–7 |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | — | 23–15 |
| Fall 2014 | 2 | — | 11–5 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 14 graded regattas (182 matches) the record is 105–77 against 111.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−6.6). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 7 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 21 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-31 | Camel Team Race | crew | 2.46 | 2.73 | 11–5 | 10.2 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 45% |
| 2018-03-24 | Admiral Moore Team Race | crew | 2.58 | 1.91 | 6–8 | 7.6 | −0.67 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2017-11-04 | Hap Moore Team Race | crew | 2.48 | 1.41 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −1.07 | 0.5 | 94% |
| 2017-04-02 | Camel Team Race | crew | 3.13 | 4.51 | 5–1 | 3.3 | +1.38 | 1.5 | 17% |
| 2017-03-26 | BU Team Race | crew | 2.72 | 1.55 | 5–5 | 7.2 | −1.16 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2016-03-26 | Admiral Moore Team Race | crew | 3.00 | 3.31 | 10–9 | 8.8 | +0.31 | 0.3 | 35% |
| 2016-03-12 | Arctic Circle Team Race | crew | 2.95 | 3.04 | 15–4 | 14.8 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 2016-03-05 | Bob Bavier Team Race | crew | 3.63 | 2.53 | 9–14 | 13.4 | −1.11 | 3.5 | 99% |
| 2015-11-07 | Hap Moore Team Race | crew | 3.68 | 2.28 | 9–7 | 12.7 | −1.39 | 3.9 | >99% |
| 2015-04-11 | Mystic Lake Team Race | crew | 3.12 | 0.63 | 3–5 | 5.8 | −2.49 | 5.0 | >99% |
| 2015-04-04 | Barque Eagle Team Race | crew | 3.00 | 4.01 | 9–3 | 6.4 | +1.01 | 1.8 | 10% |
| 2015-03-28 | Admiral Moore Team Race | crew | 2.94 | 3.60 | 11–7 | 8.6 | +0.66 | 1.2 | 16% |
| 2014-10-19 | Lane Trophy | crew | 3.22 | 4.14 | 4–1 | 3.3 | +0.92 | 0.5 | 41% |
| 2014-10-18 | Norman Reid Team Race | crew | 2.65 | 2.20 | 7–4 | 7.9 | −0.46 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 12.0 | — |
| Vietor Trophy | Crew | A | 3 | 6.3 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 9.4 | — |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Crew | A | 16 | 11.1 | — |
| Camel Team Race | Crew | TR | 16 | 69% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta 2018 | Skipper | B | 8 | 14.6 | 1.59 |
| NEISA Match Race Championships Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | B | 7 | 10.4 | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Crew | C | 3 | 16.0 | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 7.0 | — |
| 75th Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 15 | 4.2 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 7.5 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 12.2 | — |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 10.2 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 15 | 10.3 | — |
| Central Series 2 | Crew | A | 4 | 5.5 | — |
| Camel Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| BU Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 9.2 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Crew | A | 13 | 7.5 | — |
| Rose Bowl | Crew | A | 3 | 14.3 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 8.4 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 16 | 10.8 | — |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Crew | A | 6 | 4.2 | — |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 5.4 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 16 | 8.8 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 8.8 | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Crew | TR | 23 | 39% | — |
| Arctic Circle Team Race | Crew | TR | 19 | 79% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 19 | 53% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 10.7 | — |
| Truxtun Umsted | Crew | B | 18 | 11.2 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Crew | A | 15 | 10.3 | — |
| Southern Series 5 | Crew | A | 10 | 6.2 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 7 | 12.1 | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Crew | C | 14 | 6.0 | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Crew | B | 8 | 6.8 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Crew | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Barque Eagle Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 61% | — |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Crew | C | 9 | 10.4 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 13 | 4.5 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Crew | B | 8 | 12.8 | — |
| Roger Williams Invitational | Crew | B | 10 | 2.7 | — |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Crew | A | 9 | 3.3 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Crew | A | 11 | 3.8 | — |
| Lane Trophy | Crew | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| 32nd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 11.2 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | C | 15 | 7.2 | — |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 9 | 11.8 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Megan Roach |  Newport Harbor High School |
'14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
