Hap Moore Team Race

HostCoast Guard
Date11/07/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED Two-Conference
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Brown University	Bears	12–4
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	12–4
3	Boston College	Eagles	10–6
4	Georgetown University	Hoyas	10–6
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	10–6
6	Tufts University	Jumbos	9–7
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	9–7
8	Roger Williams University	Hawks	9–7
9	Harvard University	Crimson	8–8
10	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	4–12
11	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	3–13
12	University of Vermont	Catamounts	0–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 5,978 team race matches sailed before 2015-11-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 72 of 97 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.523 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.08 ± 0.20: a typical event, more orderly than 33% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Brown University Bears	1	11.53 school +0.31	Nathan Allman / Ragna Eide 3.76 Patrick Shanahan / Katherine Sudol Pearson Potts / Haley Carter 3.82 11–3 Pearson Potts / Jessica O'Dell 3.90 2–1	83%	13–4 (76%)	−1.1
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6	10.31 school +0.59	Bradley Adam / Hannah Chapman 3.08 Kyle Burgess / Grace Mcdougall 3.06 Chase Quinn / Elleanor Wells 3.46	56%	12–5 (71%)	+2.4
3	Boston College Eagles	7	9.96 school +0.14	Henry Dumke / Fiona Walsh 3.30 8–5 Harry Koeppel / Kyla Maclennan 3.48 8–5 Maxwell Simmons / Brooke Hensley 3.52 3–2 Peter Lynn / Brooke Hensley 2–2 Wade Waddell / Brooke Hensley 2–1 Peter Lynn / Alex Palfrey 2–1 Peter Lynn / Fiona Walsh 1–1 Wade Waddell / Alex Palfrey 1–1 Henry Dumke / Peter Lynn 3.12 1–0 Harry Koeppel / Alex Palfrey 3.54 1–0 Wade Waddell / Fiona Walsh 1–0	51%	10–6 (62%)	+1.8
4	Georgetown University Hoyas	5	10.52	Aj Reiter / Antonia Leggett 3.45 8–4 Campbell D'Eliscu / Claire Mohun 7–2 Roger Dorr / Rebecca Fung 3.54 5–1 Andy Reiter / Hollis Dana 3–3 Greg Martinez / Haley Shea 3.28 2–4 Jack Marshall / Antonia Leggett 3.11 1–2 Andy Reiter / Rebecca Fung 2–0 Jack Marshall / Claire Mohun 3.18 1–1 Jack Marshall / Rebecca Fung 3.32 1–1	59%	10–6 (62%)	+0.6
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4	10.46 school −0.36, home +0.25	Avery Fanning / Robert Turley 3.98 Nikole Barnes / Anna Morin 3.87 8–6 August Sturm / Hannah Herring 7–3 Kayla Ellis / Andrew Britton 2.89 3–3 Nikole Barnes / Andrew Britton 3.99 2–0	60%	10–6 (62%)	+0.4
6	Tufts University Jumbos	8	9.94 school +0.15	John Rolander / Emily Shanley-Roberts 3.29 8–7 James Moody / Caroline Ambros 3.08 8–7 Scott Barbano / Ian Morgan 3.18 6–7 Scott Barbano / Alexander Tong 3.58 2–0 Scott Barbano / Florian Eenkema Van Dijk 3.19 1–0 John Rolander / Alexander Tong 3.39 1–0 James Moody / Ian Morgan 3.02 1–0	49%	9–7 (56%)	+1.2
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3	10.01 school −0.23	Joseph Paggi / Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan 3.38 Ty Ingram / Greta Farrell Cutter O'Connell / Christopher Ford 3.41	60%	9–7 (56%)	−0.7
8	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	10.95 school +0.10	Stewart Draheim / Michael Mcbrien 3.80 Martim Anderson / Rebecca Anderson 3.30 Mackenzie Bryan / Megan Roach 3.68	79%	9–7 (56%)	−3.7
9	Harvard University Crimson	10	8.30 school −0.27	Nick Digiovanni / Pryiscilla Russo Nick Sertl / Nomin-Erdene Jagdagdorj 3.26 Jackson Wagner / Olivia Kjorlien	28%	8–8 (50%)	+3.5
10	Old Dominion University Monarchs	9	8.61 school −0.26	Alec Chicoine / Lily Brady Lee Dumaliang / Carter Little 3.12 Jack Elkin / Katelyn Talley	35%	4–12 (25%)	−1.5
11	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	12	7.32 school −0.12	John Lawless / Matthew Romanuski 2–13 Juan Lejarraga / Christopher Whalen 2–13 Kyle Comerford / Raquel Riolo 3–9 Kyle Comerford / Christa Case 0–4 John Lawless / Christopher Whalen 1–0 Matthew Romanuski / Christa Case 1.50 1–0	13%	3–13 (19%)	+0.9
12	University of Vermont Catamounts	11	8.04 school +0.06	William Crary / Brittney Manning 3.04 Benjamin Craig / Tijani Marou Jan Kite-Powell / Sydney Connor	24%	0–16 (0%)	−3.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
9	Harvard University	8.30	9.62	8–8	4.5	+1.32	3.4	3%
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.31	11.07	12–5	9.6	+0.76	1.3	15%
3	Boston College	9.96	10.55	10–6	8.2	+0.59	0.8	23%
11	SUNY Maritime College	7.32	7.80	3–13	2.1	+0.48	0.3	36%
6	Tufts University	9.94	10.32	9–7	7.8	+0.38	0.3	34%
4	Georgetown University	10.52	10.73	10–6	9.4	+0.21	0.1	47%
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10.46	10.59	10–6	9.6	+0.13	0.0	52%
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.01	9.76	9–7	9.7	−0.25	0.1	77%
1	Brown University	11.53	11.11	13–4	14.1	−0.42	0.3	85%
10	Old Dominion University	8.61	7.96	4–12	5.5	−0.65	0.7	91%
8	Roger Williams University	10.95	9.56	9–7	12.7	−1.39	3.9	>99%
12	University of Vermont	8.04	5.04	0–16	3.9	≤−3.00	7.0	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Nick Digiovanni	Harvard University	2.22	3.54	8–8	4.5	+1.32	3.4	3%
Bradley Adam	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.08	3.84	12–5	9.6	+0.76	1.3	15%
Kyle Burgess	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.06	3.82	12–5	9.6	+0.76	1.3	15%
Chase Quinn	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.46	4.22	12–5	9.6	+0.76	1.3	15%
Andy Reiter	Georgetown University	3.39	4.12	5–3	3.8	+0.73	0.6	29%
Henry Dumke	Boston College	3.30	4.00	9–5	7.1	+0.69	0.9	20%
Harry Koeppel	Boston College	3.48	4.18	9–5	7.1	+0.69	0.9	20%
Wade Waddell	Boston College	3.01	3.62	4–2	3.4	+0.61	0.3	46%
Aj Reiter	Georgetown University	3.45	3.93	8–4	6.9	+0.48	0.4	35%
John Lawless	SUNY Maritime College	2.27	2.75	3–13	2.1	+0.48	0.3	36%
August Sturm	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.39	2.85	7–3	6.2	+0.47	0.3	42%
Scott Barbano	Tufts University	3.18	3.56	9–7	7.8	+0.38	0.3	34%
John Rolander	Tufts University	3.29	3.68	9–7	7.8	+0.38	0.3	34%
James Moody	Tufts University	3.08	3.46	9–7	7.8	+0.38	0.3	34%
Avery Fanning	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.98	4.11	10–6	9.6	+0.13	0.0	52%
Nikole Barnes	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.87	4.00	10–6	9.6	+0.13	0.0	52%
Juan Lejarraga	SUNY Maritime College	2.12	2.08	2–13	2.1	−0.04	0.0	65%
Maxwell Simmons	Boston College	3.52	3.48	3–2	3.0	−0.04	0.0	72%
Jack Marshall	Georgetown University	3.11	3.05	3–4	3.1	−0.06	0.0	68%
Kayla Ellis	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.89	2.64	3–3	3.4	−0.25	0.1	76%
Joseph Paggi	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.38	3.12	9–7	9.7	−0.25	0.1	77%
Ty Ingram	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.37	3.11	9–7	9.7	−0.25	0.1	77%
Nathan Allman	Brown University	3.76	3.35	13–4	14.1	−0.42	0.3	85%
Alec Chicoine	Old Dominion University	2.15	1.50	4–12	5.5	−0.65	0.7	91%
Lee Dumaliang	Old Dominion University	3.12	2.47	4–12	5.5	−0.65	0.7	91%
Martim Anderson	Roger Williams University	3.30	1.90	9–7	12.7	−1.39	3.9	>99%
Greg Martinez	Georgetown University	3.28	1.71	2–4	3.8	−1.57	2.0	99%
William Crary	University of Vermont	3.04	0.04	0–16	3.9	≤−3.00	7.0	>99%
Benjamin Craig	University of Vermont	1.91	-1.09	0–16	3.9	≤−3.00	7.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	37%	upset
1	2	Harvard University	Old Dominion University	38%	upset
1	3	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	42%	upset
1	4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	52%
1	5	Brown University	Tufts University	85%
1	6	SUNY Maritime College	University of Vermont	32%	upset
1	7	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	12%	upset
1	8	Boston College	Georgetown University	67%
1	9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Old Dominion University	86%
1	10	Brown University	Roger Williams University	64%
1	11	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Vermont	92%
1	12	Tufts University	SUNY Maritime College	94%
1	13	Georgetown University	Harvard University	93%
1	14	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	67%
1	15	Brown University	Boston College	86%
1	16	Old Dominion University	University of Vermont	64%
1	17	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	75%
1	18	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	95%
1	19	Georgetown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	51%
1	20	Brown University	Harvard University	97%
1	21	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Vermont	89%
1	22	Boston College	Tufts University	48%	upset
1	23	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	85%
1	24	Roger Williams University	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	25	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	78%
1	26	Georgetown University	University of Vermont	88%
1	27	Tufts University	Harvard University	84%
1	28	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	57%
1	29	Boston College	Roger Williams University	18%	upset
1	30	Old Dominion University	SUNY Maritime College	80%
1	31	Brown University	University of Vermont	97%
1	32	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	59%
1	33	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	49%	upset
1	34	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	6%	upset
1	35	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Old Dominion University	80%
1	36	SUNY Maritime College	Boston College	5%	upset
1	37	Tufts University	University of Vermont	87%
1	38	Brown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	77%
1	39	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	43%	upset
1	40	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	89%
1	41	Boston College	Harvard University	84%
1	42	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	SUNY Maritime College	93%
1	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	59%
1	44	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	95%
1	45	Brown University	Old Dominion University	95%
1	46	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston College	66%
1	47	Georgetown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	68%
1	48	Harvard University	SUNY Maritime College	71%
1	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	34%	upset
1	50	Tufts University	Old Dominion University	79%
1	51	Boston College	University of Vermont	85%
1	52	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	82%
1	53	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Harvard University	87%
1	54	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	55	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	91%
1	56	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston College	61%
1	57	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	43%	upset
1	58	Harvard University	University of Vermont	57%
1	59	Georgetown University	Brown University	23%	upset
1	60	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	SUNY Maritime College	95%
1	61	Boston College	Old Dominion University	76%
1	62	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	28%	upset
1	63	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Harvard University	87%
1	64	Tufts University	Georgetown University	35%	upset
1	65	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	91%
1	66	Brown University	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	97	Brown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	76%
2	67	Georgetown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	56%
2	68	Boston College	Brown University	17%	upset
2	69	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	59%
2	73	Brown University	Georgetown University	77%
2	74	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	41%	upset
2	75	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	40%	upset
2	79	Brown University	Tufts University	82%
2	80	Boston College	Georgetown University	60%
2	81	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	50%
2	85	Tufts University	Boston College	52%
2	86	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	24%	upset
2	87	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	53%
2	91	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	34%	upset
2	92	Tufts University	Georgetown University	33%	upset
2	93	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Brown University	24%	upset
3	70	Roger Williams University	SUNY Maritime College	97%
3	71	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Old Dominion University	79%
3	72	Harvard University	University of Vermont	57%
3	76	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	72%
3	77	SUNY Maritime College	University of Vermont	34%	upset
3	78	Harvard University	Old Dominion University	44%	upset
3	82	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Vermont	86%
3	83	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	90%
3	84	Harvard University	SUNY Maritime College	72%
3	88	Old Dominion University	University of Vermont	63%
3	89	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	SUNY Maritime College	92%
3	90	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	92%
3	94	Old Dominion University	SUNY Maritime College	78%
3	95	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	94%
3	96	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	82%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bears	Seahawks	Eagles	Hoyas	Bears	Jumbos	Engineers	Hawks	Crimson	Monarchs	Privateers	Catamounts
Brown University Bears	11–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	10–2	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	6–5	L	L	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	L	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	8–3	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	8–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	6–5	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5–6	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	5–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	2–9	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	0–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bears	Seahawks	Eagles	Hoyas	Bears	Jumbos
Brown University Bears	2–3	✕	L	L	W	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–3	W	✕	L	L	L	W
Boston College Eagles	4–1	W	W	✕	W	W	L
Georgetown University Hoyas	2–3	L	W	L	✕	W	L
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2–3	W	W	L	L	✕	L
Tufts University Jumbos	3–2	L	L	W	W	W	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Engineers	Hawks	Crimson	Monarchs	Privateers	Catamounts
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
2	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
3	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
4	Seahawks	3-4-5	def.	Bears	1-2-6 DSQ
5	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
6	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
7	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
8	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
9	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
10	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
11	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
12	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
13	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
14	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
15	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
16	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
17	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
18	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
19	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
20	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
21	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
22	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
23	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
24	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
25	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
26	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
27	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
28	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
29	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
30	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
31	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
32	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
33	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
34	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
35	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
36	Privateers	1-5-6	def.	Eagles	2-3-4 RAF
37	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
38	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
39	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
40	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
41	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
42	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
43	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
44	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
45	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
46	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
47	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
48	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
49	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
50	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
51	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Catamounts	1-4-6
52	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
53	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
54	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
55	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
56	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
57	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
58	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
59	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6 DSQ
60	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Privateers	2-5-6
61	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
62	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
63	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
64	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
65	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
66	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
97	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
67	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
68	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
69	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
73	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
74	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
75	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
79	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
80	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
81	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
85	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
86	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
87	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
91	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
92	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
93	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
70	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
71	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
72	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Catamounts	2-4-5
76	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
77	Privateers	1-2-6 DNF	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
78	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
82	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6
83	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
84	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
88	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
89	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
90	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
94	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
95	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
96	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Brown University	Bears	Nathan Allman '16 Patrick Shanahan '19 Pearson Potts '16	Ragna Eide '16 Katherine Sudol '16 Haley Carter '17 Jessica O'Dell '17
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Bradley Adam '17 Chase Quinn '17 Kyle Burgess '17	Hannah Chapman '17 Elleanor Wells '18 Grace Mcdougall '16
Boston College	Eagles	Harry Koeppel '17 Henry Dumke '17 Maxwell Simmons '17 Peter Lynn '19 Wade Waddell '19	Kyla Maclennan '18 Alex Palfrey '17 Fiona Walsh '17 Peter Lynn '19 Brooke Hensley '18
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Aj Reiter '17 Andy Reiter '19 Campbell D'Eliscu '19 Greg Martinez '18 Jack Marshall '18 Roger Dorr '18	Antonia Leggett '19 Hollis Dana '16 Rebecca Fung '19 Claire Mohun '19 Haley Shea '19
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	August Sturm '19 Avery Fanning '16 Kayla Ellis '16 Nikole Barnes '17	Hannah Herring '18 Robert Turley '16 Andrew Britton '16 Anna Morin '19
Tufts University	Jumbos	James Moody '16 John Rolander '17 Scott Barbano '17	Ian Morgan '19 Caroline Ambros '17 Alexander Tong '17 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Cutter O'Connell '18 Joseph Paggi '16 Ty Ingram '18	Christopher Ford '16 Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan '16 Greta Farrell '18
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Mackenzie Bryan '18 Martim Anderson '18 Stewart Draheim '16	Megan Roach '18 Rebecca Anderson '18 Michael Mcbrien '18
Harvard University	Crimson	Jackson Wagner '19 Nick Digiovanni '19 Nick Sertl '18	Olivia Kjorlien '17 Pryiscilla Russo '17 Nomin-Erdene Jagdagdorj '17
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Alec Chicoine '18 Jack Elkin '19 Lee Dumaliang '17	Lily Brady '19 Katelyn Talley '16 Carter Little '18
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	John Lawless '19 Juan Lejarraga '19 Kyle Comerford '19 Matthew Romanuski '16	Matthew Romanuski '16 Christopher Whalen '15 Raquel Riolo '19 Christa Case '18
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Benjamin Craig '17 Jan Kite-Powell '19 William Crary '17	Tijani Marou '18 Sydney Connor '18 Brittney Manning '18

Conditions — 11/07/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1015.1 hPa

Temperature

60°F

↑ 62°F ↓ 56°F

Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.3 kn

avg · max 8.8 kn

Gusts to 18.9 kn

From WNW (300°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover90% Sunshine5.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1015.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Coast Guard — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Coast Guard in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled fleet-race days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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