August Sturm

Rating History

Team Race Rating

Rating	Rank	vs fleet rating	Record
2.30 (fleet 3.17)	unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active)	+0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts	as skipper 51–72 (41%) as crew 7–8 (47%)

Season	Regattas	Skipper W–L	Crew W–L
Spring 2018	6	30–52	—
Spring 2017	3	6–4	7–8
Spring 2016	1	8–13	—
Fall 2015	1	7–3	—

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 11 graded regattas (138 matches) the record is 58–80 against 52.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.0). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.

Date	Regatta	Role	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2018-05-26	LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship	skipper	2.78	2.07	2–13	2.9	−0.71	0.4	89%
2018-04-21	MCSA Team Race Championship	skipper	2.64	3.86	7–1	5.6	+1.22	1.2	23%
2018-04-07	Big Ten Team Race	skipper	2.64	5.64	13–0	10.8	≥+3.00	3.6	7%
2018-03-24	Admiral Moore Team Race	skipper	2.68	2.74	4–10	3.9	+0.06	0.0	59%
2018-03-17	Southern New England Team Race	skipper	2.73	1.85	2–16	2.8	−0.88	0.5	93%
2018-02-24	Mendelblatt Team Race	skipper	2.87	2.18	2–12	2.7	−0.68	0.3	89%
2017-04-08	New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy	crew	4.08	4.02	3–6	3.1	−0.06	0.0	67%
2017-03-26	BU Team Race	skipper	3.09	3.75	6–4	4.7	+0.66	0.6	28%
2017-03-11	John Jackson Memorial Team Race	crew	3.07	4.64	4–2	2.4	+1.56	1.7	14%
2016-03-19	The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta	skipper	2.45	2.74	8–13	6.9	+0.29	0.2	37%
2015-11-07	Hap Moore Team Race	skipper	2.39	2.85	7–3	6.2	+0.47	0.3	42%

Regatta results

Regatta	Role	Div	Races	Avg	Rating
Spring 2017 Team page Season
Vietor Trophy	Skipper	A	7	3.0	4.70
Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies	Skipper	A	13	9.0	3.53
New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy	Crew	TR	11	27%	—
John Jackson Memorial Team Race	Crew	TR	10	70%	—
BU Team Race	Skipper	TR	10	60%	—
Fall 2016 Team page Season
Sister Esther Open	Skipper	A	8	6.4	3.38
Sacred Heart Trophy	Skipper	A	10	1.7	3.80
Oberg Trophy	Skipper	A	12	10.2	3.03
Chris Loder Trophy	Skipper	A	11	7.1	3.32
Captain Hurst Bowl	Skipper	C	8	7.9	3.03
Spring 2016 Team page Season
Thompson Trophy	Crew	B	4	7.0	—
Southern Series 7	Skipper	A	16	6.5	1.59
Southern Series 5	Skipper	A	9	3.0	2.66
The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta	Skipper	TR	21	38%	—
George Morris Trophy	Skipper	B	8	3.5	3.76
Fall 2015 Team page Season
Rose Bowl	Skipper	A	8	14.6	2.52
Oberg Trophy	Skipper	C	7	8.9	2.68
Nickerson Trophy	Skipper	A	7	8.7	2.38
Mt. Hope Bay/Southern 1	Skipper	B	6	7.7	1.98
Lake Champlain Open	Skipper	A	9	8.9	2.46
Hewitt Trophy	Skipper	A	11	8.3	2.73
Hap Moore Team Race	Skipper	TR	16	62%	—
Chris Loder Trophy	Skipper	B	12	6.5	2.76
Captain Hurst Bowl	Skipper	C	13	10.9	2.29

Linked Profiles

League	Name	School	Year
ICSA	August Sturm	University of Michigan	'20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How do skipper ratings work?A log-strength fitted to every race at once, smoothed week to week.
What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
How does a crew rating work?A crew rating is small and uncertain; a worked example on one roster.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.

All notes →