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Thompson Trophy

# SchoolTeam A B C TOT
1 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 113 79 102 294
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 98 101 138 337
3 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 118 97 143 358
4 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 142 94 128 364
5 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 111 120 143 374
6 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 154 162 65 381
7 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 107 133 141 381
8 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 142 129 116 387
9 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 102 156 141 399
10 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 180 151 95 426
11 Boston University Boston University Terriers 132 124 184 440
12 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 130 191 153 474
13 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 131 186 173 490
14 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 174 154 163 491
15 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 174 201 161 536
16 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 208 159 184 551
17 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 234 213 228 675
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 6 8 2 3 9 6 1 8 16 12 4 2 11 8 1 1 98 Martim Anderson '18
Rebecca Anderson '18
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 3 1 8 5 1 12 2 13 6 15 9 10 12 1 2 2 102 Rachel Bryer '17 [1-16]
John Gieseke '18 [1-8]
Hannah Scanlon '18 [9-16]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 13 5 6 14 8 8 5 6 9 7 2 4 9 3 4 4 107 Chase Quinn '17 [1-16]
Grace Papp '20 [1]
Mariah Leffingwell '16 [2-16]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4 4 1 11 4 15 14 1 5 10 12 1 10 4 9 6 111 Avery Fanning '16
Robert Turley '16
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 2 10 3 2 13 1 15 2 13 1 10 15 8 2 5 11 113 Joseph Kiss '17 [1-16]
Charlotte Belling '16 [1-2]
Clara Robertson '17 [3-16]
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 7 14 10 1 6 4 8 5 1 3 5 9 17 5 13 10 118 Andrew Mollerus '16 [1-16]
Jacob Bradt '16 [1-4, 7]
Sydney Karnovsky '16 [5-6, 8-16]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5 6 4 9 14 11 4 3 14 11 1 16 1 11 8 12 130 Greiner Hobbs '18 [1-16]
Christopher Manson-Hing '19 [1-6]
No Show [7-16]
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 8 7 9 4 10 16 7 7 10 2 11 3 4 12 7 14 131 Augie Dale '18 [1-16]
Stephen Guglielmo '19 [1-5]
Kaylie Gallagher '16 [6-16]
Boston University Boston University Terriers 10 3 7 16 7 13 11 10 4 13 3 7 5 17 3 3 132 Ryan Astwood '16
Kayla Lynch '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 9 2 15 8 15 7 10 11 2 6 13 8 7 10 14 5 142 John Rolander '17 [1-16]
Leah Fletcher '17 [1-6]
Emily Shanley-Roberts '18 [7-16]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 14 12 14 7 12 2 6 15 3 5 7 11 15 6 6 7 142 Trevor Long '19 [1]
Ty Ingram '18 [2-16]
Jordan Ladd '17 [1-8]
Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan '16 [9-16]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 12 13 13 13 3 5 12 4 8 14 8 12 2 16 10 9 154 Will La Dow '18
Nicolette Obel '17
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 15 9 5 6 11 17 16 12 17 9 6 6 16 9 12 8 174 Andrew Sheerin '19 [1-16]
Connor West '19 [1-5]
Shira Golub '18 [6-16]
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons DNS DNS 11 10 2 10 3 9 12 4 16 5 13 13 17 13 174 Timothy Siemers '16
Jessica Resnick '16
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 11 16 17 5 14 9 14 7 8 17 13 6 15 11 16 180 Jack Mcguire '17
Hunter Moeller '17
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 11 15 17 12 16 3 13 16 11 16 15 14 3 14 15 17 208 Charlotte List '18
Isabelle Pieper '18
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 16 16 12 15 17 9 17 17 15 17 14 17 14 7 16 15 234 John Nothacker '16
Maura King '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 TOT Sailors
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 1 5 8 5 3 1 1 8 3 2 4 11 7 4 8 8 79 Nicholas Baird '19 [1-16]
Charlotte Belling '16 [1-2]
Christopher Champa '18 [3-4]
Isabelle Rossi De Leon '17 [5-16]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 7 7 9 1 9 9 14 13 10 1 2 5 2 1 1 3 94 Alexander Stewart '17 [1-16]
Jordan Ladd '17 [1-2]
Paige Omura '17 [3-16]
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 4 2 1 12 1 11 8 2 5 7 17 6 8 6 3 4 97 Marek Zaleski '16 [1-16]
Sydney Karnovsky '16 [1-6]
Julia Lord '17 [7-16]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 6 1 10 10 7 15 3 4 12 10 1 1 4 11 5 1 101 Stewart Draheim '16 [1-8]
Mackenzie Bryan '18 [9-16]
Michael Mcbrien '18 [1-8]
Sara Swanson '16 [9-16]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 4 4 8 12 8 5 15 11 11 8 3 9 13 4 2 120 Nikole Barnes '17 [1-8, 15-16]
Austin Lettengarver '19 [9-14]
Austin Lettengarver '19 [1-8]
August Sturm '19 [9-10, 15-16]
Anna Morin '19 [11-14]
Boston University Boston University Terriers 9 11 5 2 8 7 4 6 13 8 6 9 3 9 10 14 124 Ravi Parent '18
Caroline Salas '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 15 13 4 5 12 11 5 6 3 7 4 15 10 12 5 129 Scott Barbano '17 [1-16]
Julia Fuller '17 [1-10]
Caroline Atwood '16 [11-16]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 10 3 6 6 2 4 15 16 1 12 10 13 5 3 15 12 133 Kyle Burgess '17 [1-16]
Kira Allen '18 [1-8]
Grace Mcdougall '16 [9-16]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 5 6 7 7 4 16 2 1 14 6 11 17 12 14 16 13 151 William Hawk '18 [1-16]
Louisa Lindgren '19 [1-2, 7-8, 11-16]
Emily Kushner Salitan '16 [3-6, 9-10]
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 11 13 12 9 11 2 12 3 15 9 3 15 16 5 2 16 154 Andrew Schoene '18
Benjamin Chafee '16
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams DNS DNS 3 3 15 6 9 7 17 15 5 10 10 7 7 6 156 Matthew Coughlin '16 [1-16]
Ian Nannig '19 [1-10]
Kathryn Nota '19 [11-16]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 8 10 15 15 17 5 7 10 2 17 9 7 6 12 9 10 159 Alexandra Maurillo '18 [1-16]
Albert Rodiger '18 [1-10]
Serena Cipullo '17 [11-14]
Elaina Lambright '19 [15-16]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 13 8 2 14 13 10 10 12 8 4 12 12 14 2 11 17 162 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk '17
Cassie Obel '19
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 12 14 14 16 14 17 17 11 9 14 14 8 1 8 6 11 186 Jeremy Herrin '18
Dane Pedersen '19
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 14 16 16 11 10 14 13 14 4 5 16 2 11 16 14 15 191 Connor Swikart '18
Elizabeth Mccabe '18
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 15 9 17 13 6 3 6 17 16 16 13 14 13 17 17 9 201 Sam White '18
Alexandra Fayer '19
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 16 12 11 17 16 13 16 9 7 13 15 16 17 15 13 7 213 John Lawless '19 [1-16]
Garrett Ernst '19 [1-8]
Matthew Romanuski '16 [9-16]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 1 1 3 8 8 6 1 9 4 1 7 4 2 7 2 65 Russell Clarida '19
John Cannistraro '17
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 5 3 3 12 12 7 10 6 10 6 5 6 2 3 1 4 95 Erin Mullins '16
Olivia Diserio '16
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 13 5 8 1 2 1 11 5 6 3 15 10 9 9 3 1 102 Nicolas Hernandez '19 [1-16]
Christopher Champa '18 [1-2]
Caroline Colwell '18 [3-16]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 9 OCS 17 8 9 5 7 2 2 5 2 9 3 1 11 8 116 Casey Gowrie '16 [1-16]
Sam Gates '17 [1-10]
Leah Fletcher '17 [11-16]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 7 6 11 7 1 13 2 11 3 1 3 13 13 14 12 11 128 David Larson '16 [1-10]
Joseph Paggi '16 [11-16]
Ty Ingram '18 [1-2]
Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan '16 [3-10]
Sameena Shaffeeullah '19 [11-16]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 9 5 5 11 6 12 13 17 9 7 4 8 8 13 9 138 Michael Gemperline '17
Hallie Repeta '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 8 2 7 15 7 16 8 8 4 10 4 11 11 13 5 12 141 Liam Mccarthy '19 [1-16]
Kate Bjerregaard '19 [1-6]
Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 [7-14]
Kira Allen '18 [15-16]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams DNS DNS 13 9 14 4 1 7 5 13 12 14 1 5 2 5 141 Caleb Armstrong '16 [1-16]
Ellis Havelock '18 [1-6, 9]
Fiona Christie '17 [7-8, 10-16]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4 7 16 14 5 10 3 9 13 12 6 8 10 10 6 10 143 Kayla Ellis '16
Andrew Britton '16
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 15 13 4 6 6 15 9 10 8 8 10 1 7 7 17 7 143 Nick Sertl '18
Nomin-Erdene Jagdagdorj '17
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 6 14 6 13 15 2 16 4 12 7 8 5 6 16 9 14 153 Charles Miller '19
Haley Okun '18
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 12 15 2 3 12 13 12 16 16 11 2 15 6 10 13 161 Wade Wagner '19 [1-16]
Henry Young '16 [1-6, 9-10]
Gabriella Malek '17 [7-8, 11-16]
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons DNS DNS 2 4 4 3 4 3 7 17 13 16 16 17 4 17 163 Karl Rasmus Sayre '19
Shaughnessy Lindquist '16
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 11 8 9 10 17 11 5 14 15 15 17 12 5 4 14 6 173 Lee Dumaliang '17
Abigail Lockler '18
Boston University Boston University Terriers 10 10 12 11 10 17 15 15 14 11 9 3 14 15 15 3 184 Charles Welsh '18
Danielle Stonely '17
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 12 4 14 17 13 9 14 17 1 2 16 17 12 12 8 16 184 Emilia Clementi '18 [1-16]
Elaina Lambright '19 [1-12]
Albert Rodiger '18 [13-16]
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 14 11 10 16 16 14 DNF 16 11 14 14 15 17 11 16 15 228 James Keegan '16
James Broyles '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers11111212131314141515161617171818
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears1212111110109988776655
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears77889910101111121213131414
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels1313141415151616171718181122
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons14141313121211111010998877
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials151516161717181811223344
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson161615151414131312121111101099
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen17171818112233445566
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers18181717161615151414131312121111
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers334455667788991010
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs1122334455667788
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams8877665544332211
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks2211181817171616151514141313
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks443322111818171716161515
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal5566778899101011111212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos66554433221118181717
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs991010111112121313141415151616

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers11111212131314141515161617171818
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears1212111110109988776655
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears77889910101111121213131414
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels1313141415151616171718181122
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons14141313121211111010998877
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials151516161717181811223344
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson161615151414131312121111101099
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen17171818112233445566
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers18181717161615151414131312121111
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers334455667788991010
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs1122334455667788
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams8877665544332211
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks2211181817171616151514141313
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks443322111818171716161515
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal5566778899101011111212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos66554433221118181717
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs991010111112121313141415151616

Division C

Team1C2C3C4C5C6C7C8C9C10C11C12C13C14C15C16C
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers11111212131314141515161617171818
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears1212111110109988776655
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears77889910101111121213131414
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels1313141415151616171718181122
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons14141313121211111010998877
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials151516161717181811223344
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson161615151414131312121111101099
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen17171818112233445566
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers18181717161615151414131312121111
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers334455667788991010
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs1122334455667788
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams8877665544332211
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks2211181817171616151514141313
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks443322111818171716161515
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal5566778899101011111212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos66554433221118181717
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs991010111112121313141415151616
School / Team SkipperCrew
Boston University Boston University Ryan Astwood '16 Kayla Lynch '16
Terriers Ravi Parent '18 Caroline Salas '18
Charles Welsh '18 Danielle Stonely '17
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Jack Mcguire '17 Hunter Moeller '17
Polar Bears William Hawk '18 [1-16] Louisa Lindgren '19 [1-2, 7-8, 11-16]
Emily Kushner Salitan '16 [3-6, 9-10]
Erin Mullins '16 Olivia Diserio '16
Connecticut College Connecticut College Charlotte List '18 Isabelle Pieper '18
Camels Alexandra Maurillo '18 [1-16] Albert Rodiger '18 [1-10]
Serena Cipullo '17 [11-14]
Elaina Lambright '19 [15-16]
Emilia Clementi '18 [1-16] Elaina Lambright '19 [1-12]
Albert Rodiger '18 [13-16]
Eckerd College Eckerd College Timothy Siemers '16 Jessica Resnick '16
Tritons Andrew Schoene '18 Benjamin Chafee '16
Karl Rasmus Sayre '19 Shaughnessy Lindquist '16
George Washington University George Washington University Andrew Sheerin '19 [1-16] Connor West '19 [1-5]
Shira Golub '18 [6-16]
Colonials Sam White '18 Alexandra Fayer '19
Wade Wagner '19 [1-16] Henry Young '16 [1-6, 9-10]
Gabriella Malek '17 [7-8, 11-16]
Harvard University Harvard University Andrew Mollerus '16 [1-16] Jacob Bradt '16 [1-4, 7]
Sydney Karnovsky '16 [5-6, 8-16]
Crimson Marek Zaleski '16 [1-16] Sydney Karnovsky '16 [1-6]
Julia Lord '17 [7-16]
Nick Sertl '18 Nomin-Erdene Jagdagdorj '17
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Greiner Hobbs '18 [1-16] Christopher Manson-Hing '19 [1-6]
No Show [7-16]
Statesmen Connor Swikart '18 Elizabeth Mccabe '18
Charles Miller '19 Haley Okun '18
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Trevor Long '19 [1]
Ty Ingram '18 [2-16]		 Jordan Ladd '17 [1-8]
Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan '16 [9-16]
Engineers Alexander Stewart '17 [1-16] Jordan Ladd '17 [1-2]
Paige Omura '17 [3-16]
David Larson '16 [1-10]
Joseph Paggi '16 [11-16]		 Ty Ingram '18 [1-2]
Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan '16 [3-10]
Sameena Shaffeeullah '19 [11-16]
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Augie Dale '18 [1-16] Stephen Guglielmo '19 [1-5]
Kaylie Gallagher '16 [6-16]
Monarchs Jeremy Herrin '18 Dane Pedersen '19
Lee Dumaliang '17 Abigail Lockler '18
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Martim Anderson '18 Rebecca Anderson '18
Hawks Stewart Draheim '16 [1-8]
Mackenzie Bryan '18 [9-16]		 Michael Mcbrien '18 [1-8]
Sara Swanson '16 [9-16]
Michael Gemperline '17 Hallie Repeta '19
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College John Nothacker '16 Maura King '19
Privateers John Lawless '19 [1-16] Garrett Ernst '19 [1-8]
Matthew Romanuski '16 [9-16]
James Keegan '16 James Broyles '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Chase Quinn '17 [1-16] Grace Papp '20 [1]
Mariah Leffingwell '16 [2-16]
Seahawks Kyle Burgess '17 [1-16] Kira Allen '18 [1-8]
Grace Mcdougall '16 [9-16]
Liam Mccarthy '19 [1-16] Kate Bjerregaard '19 [1-6]
Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 [7-14]
Kira Allen '18 [15-16]
Stanford University Stanford University Will La Dow '18 Nicolette Obel '17
Cardinal Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk '17 Cassie Obel '19
Russell Clarida '19 John Cannistraro '17
Tufts University Tufts University John Rolander '17 [1-16] Leah Fletcher '17 [1-6]
Emily Shanley-Roberts '18 [7-16]
Jumbos Scott Barbano '17 [1-16] Julia Fuller '17 [1-10]
Caroline Atwood '16 [11-16]
Casey Gowrie '16 [1-16] Sam Gates '17 [1-10]
Leah Fletcher '17 [11-16]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Avery Fanning '16 Robert Turley '16
Bears Nikole Barnes '17 [1-8, 15-16]
Austin Lettengarver '19 [9-14]		 Austin Lettengarver '19 [1-8]
August Sturm '19 [9-10, 15-16]
Anna Morin '19 [11-14]
Kayla Ellis '16 Andrew Britton '16
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rachel Bryer '17 [1-16] John Gieseke '18 [1-8]
Hannah Scanlon '18 [9-16]
Rams Matthew Coughlin '16 [1-16] Ian Nannig '19 [1-10]
Kathryn Nota '19 [11-16]
Caleb Armstrong '16 [1-16] Ellis Havelock '18 [1-6, 9]
Fiona Christie '17 [7-8, 10-16]
Yale University Yale University Joseph Kiss '17 [1-16] Charlotte Belling '16 [1-2]
Clara Robertson '17 [3-16]
Bulldogs Nicholas Baird '19 [1-16] Charlotte Belling '16 [1-2]
Christopher Champa '18 [3-4]
Isabelle Rossi De Leon '17 [5-16]
Nicolas Hernandez '19 [1-16] Christopher Champa '18 [1-2]
Caroline Colwell '18 [3-16]

Conditions — 04/16/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 39%  ·  Pressure 1030.3 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.8 kn
avg  ·  max 11.1 kn
Gusts to 27.6 kn
From NNE (30°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover31% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity39% Pressure1030.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 16 kn · N 7 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Coast Guard: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.18 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.10
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.34 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →