Roger Williams University '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.49 (fleet 3.44) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 65–53 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 13–11 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 8–10 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 18–12 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 6–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 16–12 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 4–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (118 matches) the record is 65–53 against 63.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.4). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-02 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 3.13 | 4.06 | 8–2 | 6.2 | +0.93 | 1.1 | 20% |
| 2017-03-25 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 2.98 | 4.39 | 5–9 | 2.3 | +1.42 | 3.1 | 3% |
| 2016-11-05 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.02 | 2.56 | 8–10 | 10.0 | −0.46 | 0.7 | 89% |
| 2016-03-26 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.00 | 3.14 | 8–8 | 7.5 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 50% |
| 2016-03-12 | Arctic Circle Team Race | skipper | 2.95 | 2.99 | 10–4 | 9.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2015-11-07 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.69 | 2.73 | 6–4 | 5.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2015-04-11 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.68 | 0.19 | 3–5 | 5.8 | −2.49 | 5.0 | >99% |
| 2015-04-04 | Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.59 | 3.03 | 7–3 | 6.1 | +0.44 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 2015-03-28 | Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.67 | 3.20 | 6–4 | 5.0 | +0.53 | 0.4 | 35% |
| 2014-10-19 | Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.60 | 2.04 | 4–4 | 4.9 | −0.55 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.5 | 4.00 |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Gill Coed College Sailing National Championship | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.2 | 3.53 |
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.7 | 2.93 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.2 | 3.71 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 12.6 | 3.01 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 8 | 8.8 | 2.63 |
| 74th Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 3.6 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 8.6 | 3.25 |
| Arctic Circle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 79% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 53% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.5 | 2.64 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 8.4 | 3.02 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 3.3 | 3.62 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.0 | 1.90 |
| 73rd Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 5.0 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 3.5 | 3.48 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.4 | 3.69 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.2 | 2.97 |
| Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.2 | 4.23 |
| 32nd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.2 | 3.81 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.9 | 2.38 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 12.4 | 1.86 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
