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The Mike Horn Trophy

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Boston College Boston College Eagles 8–2
2 Boston University Boston University Terriers 8–2
3 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 6–4
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4–6
5 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 3–7
6 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 5,978 team race matches sailed before 2015-11-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 30 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.474 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.05 ± 0.33: a typical event, more orderly than 38% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Boston College
Eagles		28.35
school +0.14		Caroline Downey / Megan Bamford
Richard Jones / Emily Vasiliou
Jacob Martz / Kendall Van Horne 2.58		64%8–2 (80%)+1.6
2Boston University
Terriers		19.63
school −0.08		Brendan Cook / Lexi Pline 3.40
Hannah Polster / Hannah Callahan 3.48
Charles Welsh / Lily Lichtenstein 2.77		88%8–2 (80%)−0.8
3Roger Williams University
Hawks		38.14
school +0.10		Michael Gemperline / Tyler Killion 2.69
Kelsey Shakin / Brigette Croke
James Kennedy / Hallie Repeta 2.64		59%6–4 (60%)+0.1
4Tufts University
Jumbos		47.59
school +0.15		Logan Russell / Ashley Smith
Jackson Mccoy / Kahler Newsham
Molly Pleskus / Lucy Zwigard 2–4
Molly Pleskus / Bobby Mclaughlin 2–2		47%4–6 (40%)−0.7
5Harvard University
Crimson		56.89
school −0.27, home +0.25		Dylan Farrell / Christine Gosioco 2.15
Taylor Gavula / Catherine Tang
Andrew Puopolo / Emma Wheeler		32%3–7 (30%)−0.2
6Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		65.60
school −0.23		Kyle Joba-Woodruff / Pavlina Karafillis
Sarah Caso / Sophie Goemans
Zachary Hall / Scarlett Koller		10%1–9 (10%)+0.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Boston College8.359.398–26.4+1.051.120%
3Roger Williams University8.148.196–45.9+0.040.063%
6Massachusetts Institute of Technology5.605.641–91.0+0.040.065%
5Harvard University6.896.743–73.2−0.150.071%
4Tufts University7.597.204–64.7−0.390.282%
2Boston University9.638.988–28.8−0.650.490%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Richard JonesBoston College3.324.378–26.4+1.051.120%
Jacob MartzBoston College2.583.628–26.4+1.051.120%
Michael GemperlineRoger Williams University2.692.736–45.9+0.040.063%
James KennedyRoger Williams University2.642.686–45.9+0.040.063%
Kyle Joba-WoodruffMassachusetts Institute of Technology1.501.541–91.0+0.040.065%
Taylor GavulaHarvard University1.871.733–73.2−0.150.071%
Andrew PuopoloHarvard University2.352.213–73.2−0.150.071%
Brendan CookBoston University3.402.758–28.8−0.650.490%
Hannah PolsterBoston University3.482.838–28.8−0.650.490%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Harvard UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology80%
12Roger Williams UniversityBoston University13%upset
13Boston CollegeTufts University67%
14Boston UniversityHarvard University95%
15Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyTufts University10%upset
16Boston CollegeRoger Williams University55%
17Boston UniversityTufts University89%
18Roger Williams UniversityHarvard University78%
19Boston CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology94%
110Roger Williams UniversityTufts University65%
111Boston UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology98%
112Boston CollegeHarvard University81%
113Roger Williams UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology93%
114Tufts UniversityHarvard University66%
115Boston CollegeBoston University22%upset
216Boston UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology98%
217Roger Williams UniversityTufts University64%
218Boston CollegeHarvard University81%
219Boston UniversityRoger Williams University80%
220Harvard UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology78%
221Tufts UniversityBoston College32%upset
222Harvard UniversityRoger Williams University23%upset
223Boston UniversityTufts University87%
224Boston CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology93%
225Tufts UniversityHarvard University65%
226Roger Williams UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology92%
227Boston UniversityBoston College75%
228Tufts UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology87%
229Boston UniversityHarvard University92%
230Boston CollegeRoger Williams University55%

Round 1

TeamRec.EaglesTerriersHawksJumbosCrimsonEngineers
Boston College Eagles5–0✕WWWWW
Boston University Terriers3–2L✕LWWW
Roger Williams University Hawks4–1LW✕WWW
Tufts University Jumbos1–4LLL✕WL
Harvard University Crimson1–4LLLL✕W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1–4LLLWL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.EaglesTerriersHawksJumbosCrimsonEngineers
Boston College Eagles3–2✕LWLWW
Boston University Terriers5–0W✕WWWW
Roger Williams University Hawks2–3LL✕WLW
Tufts University Jumbos3–2WLL✕WW
Harvard University Crimson2–3LLWL✕W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Harvard University Crimson 1-4-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-6
2 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 2-5-6
3 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
4 Boston University Terriers 1-3-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-4-6
5 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
6 Boston College Eagles 1-3-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-4-6
7 Boston University Terriers 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
8 Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 1-5-6
9 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
10 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
11 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
12 Boston College Eagles 1-3-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-4-6
13 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
14 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 1-5-6
15 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
16 Boston University Terriers 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
17 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-4-6
18 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Harvard University Crimson 4-5-6
19 Boston University Terriers 1-4-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-6
20 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
21 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-4-6
22 Harvard University Crimson 1-3-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-4-6
23 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
24 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6
25 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 1-5-6
26 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
27 Boston University Terriers 1-4-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-3-6
28 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
29 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
30 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-5-6

Conditions — 11/07/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1014.0 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.3 kn
avg  ·  max 11.7 kn
Gusts to 22.0 kn
From W (279°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover82% Sunshine5.7 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1014.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Harvard — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Harvard in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled fleet-race days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →