Boston University '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.82 (fleet 3.90) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 53–68 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 15–23 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 8–10 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 8–2 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 11–13 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 10–5 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 1–15 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (121 matches) the record is 53–68 against 54.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-08 | New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.57 | 3.37 | 4–11 | 4.5 | −0.20 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 2017-03-25 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.56 | -0.56 | 1–11 | 5.5 | −4.12 | 10.7 | >99% |
| 2017-03-18 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.46 | 4.27 | 10–1 | 9.1 | +0.81 | 0.5 | 38% |
| 2016-11-05 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.21 | 3.37 | 8–10 | 7.3 | +0.16 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2015-11-07 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 3.48 | 2.83 | 8–2 | 8.8 | −0.65 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 2015-04-04 | Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 3.06 | 3.16 | 5–9 | 4.7 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2015-03-28 | Staake | skipper | 3.14 | 2.83 | 6–4 | 6.5 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2014-11-08 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.89 | 3.83 | 10–5 | 7.3 | +0.94 | 1.9 | 9% |
| 2014-03-08 | TR Invite | skipper | 2.25 | 1.98 | 1–15 | 1.3 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 74% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.7 | 3.22 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.1 | 4.43 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.2 | 4.14 |
| New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.3 | 4.10 |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.0 | 4.10 |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 11 | 91% | — |
| Gill Coed College Sailing National Championship | Skipper | B | 17 | 9.1 | 4.07 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.5 | 4.09 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.2 | 2.83 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.6 | 4.09 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.6 | 3.33 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.4 | 3.98 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.1 | 3.82 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.0 | 3.65 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.0 | 3.11 |
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.0 | 3.55 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.8 | 4.36 |
| Harry Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.6 | 3.71 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.4 | 2.74 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.2 | 4.28 |
| 34th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.7 | 3.57 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.8 | 3.32 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.0 | 3.36 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.4 | 3.22 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.2 | 3.72 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.8 | 3.13 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.3 | 3.73 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.5 | 4.50 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.2 | 2.98 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.9 | 3.97 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.1 | 3.46 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.7 | 2.90 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.7 | 4.54 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.5 | 3.98 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.2 | 3.74 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 5.1 | 3.56 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 6.2 | 3.88 |
| Dark of Night | Skipper | B | 2 | 9.0 | 0.81 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.3 | 3.86 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.2 | 2.36 |
| Staake | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Southern 7 on Salt Pond | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.4 | 2.05 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.3 | 2.64 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.7 | 2.66 |
| Charleston Coed | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.4 | 3.02 |
| Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | A | 11 | 2.4 | 4.23 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.3 | 3.07 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.4 | 2.91 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.2 | 3.08 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.3 | 2.60 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 10.8 | 2.52 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Bowdoin Women's Invitational Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.9 | 2.22 |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.8 | 2.54 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.2 | 2.23 |
| TR Invite | Skipper | TR | 20 | 15% | — |
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 6.9 | 3.07 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.7 | 2.66 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.4 | 2.76 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.2 | 2.35 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.4 | 1.86 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 13.8 | 1.48 |
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.0 | 2.25 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.0 | 1.51 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.1 | 2.09 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.6 | 1.74 |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.2 | 1.58 |
| Bowdoin Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.0 | 2.73 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
