Jan T. Friis Trophy

HostCoast Guard
Date03/25/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	14–0
2	Dartmouth College	Big Green	10–4
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	9–5
4	Boston College	Eagles	8–6
5	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	6–8
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks	5–9
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	6–6
8	Tufts University	Jumbos	6–6
9	Boston University	Terriers	1–11
9	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	1–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 8,016 team race matches sailed before 2017-03-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 50 of 66 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.504 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.19 ± 0.25: a typical event, more orderly than 24% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	12.41 school +0.17	Joseph Kiss / Natalya Doris 3.90 10–0 Ian Barrows / Clara Robertson 4.31 9–0 Malcolm Lamphere / Chandler Gregoire 3.76 9–0 Ian Barrows / Chandler Gregoire 4.41 5–0 Nicholas Baird / Clara Robertson 4.11 5–0 Nicholas Baird / Natalya Doris 4.21 4–0	83%	14–0 (100%)	+2.3
2	Dartmouth College Big Green	5	10.97	Charles Lalumiere / Rebecca Mcelvain 3.74 Robert Floyd / Madeleine Cooney 3.75 7–2 Christopher Williford / Nathaniel Greason 3.63 6–2 Christopher Williford / Sophie Kerr 3.72 4–2 Duncan Williford / Paige Clarke 3.01 3–2	56%	10–4 (71%)	+2.1
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2	11.50 school +0.22	Greiner Hobbs / Anna Flaherty 3.91 Charles Miller / Lindsey Kloc 3.38 Hector Guzman / Maya Weber 3.96	67%	9–5 (64%)	−0.3
4	Boston College Eagles	3	11.44 school +0.21	Harry Koeppel / Hannah Lynn 3.85 Wade Waddell / Emma Perry 3.34 7–3 Charles Sinks / Allison Ferraris 3.98 5–4 Charles Sinks / Henry Dumke 3.89 3–2 Henry Dumke / Emma Perry 3.56 1–3	64%	8–6 (57%)	−0.9
5	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6	10.79 school +0.20	Jack Mcguire / Hunter Moeller 3.59 William Hawk / Louisa Lindgren 3.30 Matthew Kaplan / Dana Bloch 3.66 5–4 Matthew Kaplan / Mary Paz 3.69 1–4	50%	6–8 (43%)	−1.0
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	9	8.83 school +0.08	Michael Gemperline / Beatrice Bellacosa 2.98 Conner Harding / Hallie Repeta 3.28 Ed Lebens / Brigette Croke	16%	5–9 (36%)	+2.7
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7	10.37 school −0.35, home +0.24	Mack Fox / Maddie Ekin 3.04 Nikole Barnes / Anna Morin 4.00 4–3 Nikole Barnes / Austin Lettengarver 4.04 2–3 Dana Rohde / Madelynn Widmeier 3.52 2–3 Austin Lettengarver / Miyako Miller 3.17 4–0 Dana Rohde / Miyako Miller 3.51 0–3	49%	6–6 (50%)	+0.2
8	Tufts University Jumbos	4	10.95 school +0.12	Scott Barbano / Ian Morgan 3.61 Alexander Tong / Lara Dienemann 3.52 John Rolander / Emily Shanley-Roberts 3.68	62%	6–6 (50%)	−1.5
9	Boston University Terriers	8	10.10 school −0.21	Ravi Parent / Caroline Salas 3.70 Robby Gearon / Lexi Pline 3.12 1–9 Hannah Polster / Emily Croteau 3.56 1–9 Hannah Polster / Alex Moreno 3.62 0–2 Michael Sabourin / Andrew Reed 0–2	46%	1–11 (8%)	−4.5
9	University of Wisconsin Badgers	10	6.34 school −0.10	Charles Bocklet / Maggie Houtz 2.58 1–6 Charlie Kutschenreuter / Olivia Staruck 2.02 1–6 Noah Janssen / Brianna Probst 1.55 1–6 Charles Bocklet / Erik Elliott 2.66 0–5 Charlie Kutschenreuter / Mason Engnes 2.22 0–5 Noah Janssen / Alexander Blair 1.58 0–5	2%	1–11 (8%)	+0.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Yale University	12.41	15.41	14–0	11.7	≥+3.00	3.6	7%
9	University of Wisconsin	6.34	8.05	1–11	0.2	+1.71	1.2	19%
6	Roger Williams University	8.83	10.25	5–9	2.3	+1.42	3.1	3%
2	Dartmouth College	10.97	11.79	10–4	7.9	+0.82	1.2	16%
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10.37	10.45	6–6	5.8	+0.08	0.0	58%
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	11.50	11.37	9–5	9.3	−0.13	0.0	71%
4	Boston College	11.44	11.10	8–6	8.9	−0.34	0.2	81%
5	Bowdoin College	10.79	10.41	6–8	7.0	−0.38	0.3	82%
8	Tufts University	10.95	10.24	6–6	7.5	−0.71	0.7	92%
9	Boston University	10.10	5.99	1–11	5.5	−4.12	10.7	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Joseph Kiss	Yale University	3.90	6.90	10–0	8.1	≥+3.00	2.9	12%
Ian Barrows	Yale University	4.31	7.31	14–0	11.7	≥+3.00	3.6	7%
Nicholas Baird	Yale University	4.11	7.11	9–0	7.4	≥+3.00	2.5	16%
Austin Lettengarver	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.17	6.17	4–0	1.6	≥+3.00	5.1	2%
Charles Bocklet	University of Wisconsin	2.58	4.29	1–11	0.2	+1.71	1.2	19%
Charlie Kutschenreuter	University of Wisconsin	2.02	3.73	1–11	0.2	+1.71	1.2	19%
Noah Janssen	University of Wisconsin	1.55	3.26	1–11	0.2	+1.71	1.2	19%
Michael Gemperline	Roger Williams University	2.98	4.39	5–9	2.3	+1.42	3.1	3%
Conner Harding	Roger Williams University	3.28	4.70	5–9	2.3	+1.42	3.1	3%
Ed Lebens	Roger Williams University	2.28	3.69	5–9	2.3	+1.42	3.1	3%
Robert Floyd	Dartmouth College	3.75	5.07	7–2	4.6	+1.31	2.1	9%
Charles Lalumiere	Dartmouth College	3.74	4.56	10–4	7.9	+0.82	1.2	16%
Wade Waddell	Boston College	3.34	3.50	7–3	6.7	+0.17	0.0	56%
Nikole Barnes	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	4.00	4.08	6–6	5.8	+0.08	0.0	58%
Charles Miller	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.38	3.25	9–5	9.3	−0.13	0.0	71%
Harry Koeppel	Boston College	3.85	3.51	8–6	8.9	−0.34	0.2	81%
Jack Mcguire	Bowdoin College	3.59	3.22	6–8	7.0	−0.38	0.3	82%
William Hawk	Bowdoin College	3.30	2.92	6–8	7.0	−0.38	0.3	82%
Scott Barbano	Tufts University	3.61	2.91	6–6	7.5	−0.71	0.7	92%
Alexander Tong	Tufts University	3.52	2.81	6–6	7.5	−0.71	0.7	92%
John Rolander	Tufts University	3.68	2.97	6–6	7.5	−0.71	0.7	92%
Henry Dumke	Boston College	3.56	0.31	1–3	2.2	−3.25	2.2	>99%
Ravi Parent	Boston University	3.70	-0.42	1–11	5.5	−4.12	10.7	>99%
Hannah Polster	Boston University	3.56	-0.56	1–11	5.5	−4.12	10.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Dartmouth College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	27%	upset
1	2	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	14%	upset
1	3	Tufts University	Boston University	68%
1	4	Bowdoin College	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	5	Yale University	Boston College	73%
1	6	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	69%
1	7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Boston University	79%
1	8	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	89%
1	9	Yale University	Tufts University	84%
1	10	Boston College	University of Wisconsin	100%
1	11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston University	48%	upset
1	12	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	60%
1	13	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	75%
1	14	Roger Williams University	University of Wisconsin	92%
1	15	Tufts University	Boston College	34%	upset
1	16	Bowdoin College	Boston University	64%
1	17	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	88%
1	18	Dartmouth College	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	19	Tufts University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	37%	upset
1	20	Boston College	Roger Williams University	93%
1	21	Yale University	Bowdoin College	84%
1	22	Boston University	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	23	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	30%	upset
1	24	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	14%	upset
1	25	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Boston College	52%
1	26	Yale University	University of Wisconsin	100%
1	27	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	46%	upset
1	28	Roger Williams University	Boston University	20%	upset
1	29	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	73%
1	30	Dartmouth College	Boston College	46%	upset
1	31	Tufts University	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	32	Yale University	Roger Williams University	96%
1	33	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Bowdoin College	67%
1	34	Dartmouth College	Boston University	72%
1	35	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	69%
1	36	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	11%	upset
1	37	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	38	Yale University	Dartmouth College	73%
1	39	Bowdoin College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	57%
1	40	Boston College	Boston University	86%
1	41	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	93%
1	42	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	55%
1	43	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	44	Yale University	Boston University	92%
1	45	Boston College	Bowdoin College	62%
4	61	Tufts University	Boston University	68%
4	62	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Wisconsin	98%
4	63	Tufts University	University of Wisconsin	99%
4	64	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston University	48%	upset
4	65	University of Wisconsin	Boston University	2%	upset
4	66	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	31%	upset
6	46	Boston College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	48%	upset
6	47	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	59%
6	48	Yale University	Roger Williams University	96%
6	49	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Dartmouth College	71%
6	50	Boston College	Roger Williams University	93%
6	51	Yale University	Bowdoin College	84%
6	52	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	85%
6	53	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Bowdoin College	67%
6	54	Yale University	Boston College	73%
6	55	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	87%
6	56	Dartmouth College	Boston College	46%	upset
6	57	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	75%
6	58	Boston College	Bowdoin College	62%
6	59	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	93%
6	60	Yale University	Dartmouth College	73%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Green	Statesmen	Eagles	Bears	Hawks	Bears	Jumbos	Terriers	Badgers
Yale University Bulldogs	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	7–2	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	6–3	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	5–4	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–4	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–5	L	L	W	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Boston University Terriers	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bears	Jumbos	Terriers	Badgers
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	2–1	L	✕	W	W
Boston University Terriers	0–3	L	L	✕	L
University of Wisconsin Badgers	1–2	L	L	W	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Green	Statesmen	Eagles	Bears	Hawks
Yale University Bulldogs	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	3–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
2	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
3	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
4	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
6	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
7	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
8	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
9	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
10	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
11	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Terriers	2-4-5
12	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
13	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
14	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
15	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
16	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
17	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
18	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
19	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
20	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
21	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
22	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
23	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
24	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
25	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
26	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
27	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
28	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
29	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
30	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
31	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
32	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
33	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
34	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
35	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
36	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
37	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
38	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
39	Polar Bears	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
40	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
41	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
42	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
43	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
44	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
45	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
61	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
62	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
63	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
64	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
65	Badgers	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
66	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
46	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
47	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
48	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
49	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
50	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
51	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
52	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
53	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
54	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
55	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
56	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
57	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
58	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	1-4-6
59	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
60	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Ian Barrows '17 Joseph Kiss '17 Malcolm Lamphere '18 Nicholas Baird '19	Clara Robertson '17 Chandler Gregoire '17 Natalya Doris '17
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Charles Lalumiere '17 Christopher Williford '19 Duncan Williford '18 Robert Floyd '17	Rebecca Mcelvain '19 Sophie Kerr '17 Nathaniel Greason '17 Paige Clarke '20 Madeleine Cooney '17
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Miller '19 Greiner Hobbs '18 Hector Guzman '20	Lindsey Kloc '19 Anna Flaherty '20 Maya Weber '20
Boston College	Eagles	Charles Sinks '18 Harry Koeppel '17 Henry Dumke '17 Wade Waddell '19	Henry Dumke '17 Allison Ferraris '17 Hannah Lynn '17 Emma Perry '19
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Jack Mcguire '17 Matthew Kaplan '19 William Hawk '18	Hunter Moeller '17 Dana Bloch '17 Mary Paz '17 Louisa Lindgren '19
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Conner Harding '19 Ed Lebens '19 Michael Gemperline '17	Hallie Repeta '19 Brigette Croke '17 Beatrice Bellacosa '17
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Austin Lettengarver '19 Dana Rohde '18 Mack Fox '20 Nikole Barnes '17	Miyako Miller '20 Madelynn Widmeier '19 Maddie Ekin '20 Anna Morin '19 Austin Lettengarver '19
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alexander Tong '17 John Rolander '17 Scott Barbano '17	Lara Dienemann '18 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18 Ian Morgan '19
Boston University	Terriers	Hannah Polster '17 Michael Sabourin '20 Ravi Parent '18 Robby Gearon '19	Emily Croteau '19 Alex Moreno '19 Andrew Reed '18 Caroline Salas '18 Lexi Pline '19
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Charles Bocklet '18 Charlie Kutschenreuter '19 Noah Janssen '19	Maggie Houtz '19 Erik Elliott '17 Olivia Staruck '20 Mason Engnes '17 Brianna Probst '20 Alexander Blair '18

Conditions — 03/25/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 77% · Pressure 1023.0 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 53°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.6 kn

avg · max 8.6 kn

Gusts to 19.0 kn

From NE (40°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine3.4 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1023.0 hPa Rain0.04 in

What this breeze does at Coast Guard — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Coast Guard in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled fleet-race days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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