Roger Williams University '19
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 3.09 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 14 | Fall 2016 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.88 (fleet 3.96) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 167–70 (70%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 6 | 47–30 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 6 | 88–24 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 13–11 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 9–0 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 10–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 16 graded regattas (237 matches) the record is 167–70 against 153.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+13.2). 4 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 17 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-06 | NEISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.95 | 4.33 | 10–8 | 8.4 | +0.38 | 0.4 | 30% |
| 2019-03-30 | 38th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.94 | 3.59 | 6–8 | 7.1 | −0.35 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2019-03-23 | Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.96 | 4.84 | 7–3 | 5.4 | +0.89 | 1.0 | 21% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | skipper | 3.88 | 3.84 | 9–6 | 9.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2019-03-09 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 3.91 | 2.53 | 9–5 | 11.8 | −1.38 | 3.1 | 99% |
| 2019-03-02 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.86 | 6.86 | 6–0 | 5.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 36% |
| 2018-05-26 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.65 | 3.70 | 19–8 | 18.8 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2018-04-07 | New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.61 | 3.63 | 13–5 | 12.9 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2018-03-24 | Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.68 | 3.39 | 11–3 | 11.6 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.67 | 4.66 | 17–3 | 14.2 | +0.99 | 1.9 | 10% |
| 2018-03-10 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 3.62 | 4.46 | 13–1 | 11.9 | +0.84 | 0.6 | 35% |
| 2018-03-03 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.56 | 3.98 | 15–4 | 13.8 | +0.42 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2017-04-02 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 3.54 | 4.47 | 8–2 | 6.2 | +0.93 | 1.1 | 20% |
| 2017-03-25 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.28 | 4.70 | 5–9 | 2.3 | +1.42 | 3.1 | 3% |
| 2016-10-16 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 3.48 | 6.48 | 9–0 | 8.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 47% |
| 2016-03-26 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.72 | 3.73 | 10–5 | 6.8 | +1.01 | 2.3 | 7% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| NEISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 18 | 56% | — |
| NEISA Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.6 | 3.50 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 100% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| 38th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| 2019 Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.9 | 3.96 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.9 | 4.47 |
| The Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.3 | 4.45 |
| Harvard Coed Showcase 2 | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.4 | 4.47 |
| Harry H. Anderson Jr. Regatta | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.9 | 3.59 |
| Fiske-Harriman-Sleigh Trophy Coed Showcase | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.3 | 4.36 |
| The 78th Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.5 | 5.24 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.5 | 3.27 |
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 93% | — |
| New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 27 | 70% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 85% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 2 | 7.0 | 3.75 |
| Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 79% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.9 | 4.72 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.6 | 3.91 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.2 | 4.35 |
| 43rd Henry H.Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.9 | 3.35 |
| 35th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.5 | 3.82 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 9.9 | 3.14 |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | B | 3 | 8.0 | 3.74 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 12 | 6.7 | 3.49 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.4 | 3.94 |
| NEISA Men Singles Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.6 | 3.06 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.2 | 3.11 |
| Harry Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.6 | 3.73 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 100% | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 5.0 | 3.34 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 53% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | D | 18 | 7.0 | 3.44 |
| Southern Series 5 | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.2 | 3.41 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 7 | 8.4 | 2.65 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.8 | 3.53 |
| Mt. Hope Bay/Southern 1 | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.0 | 3.08 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 7.5 | 2.79 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.8 | 2.58 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
