Graham Hall Team Race

HostNavy
Date03/17/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	17–3
2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	16–4
3	Yale University	Bulldogs	15–5
4	Georgetown University	Hoyas	14–6
5	College of Charleston	Cougars	12–8
6	George Washington University	Colonials	11–9
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	9–6
8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	8–7
9	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	8–7
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	5–10
11	Tufts University	Jumbos	5–10
12	Cornell University	Big Red	4–11
13	Fordham University	Rams	4–11
14	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	3–12
15	University of Virginia	Wahoos	3–12
16	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	1–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,042 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 113 of 138 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.449 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.04 ± 0.17: a typical event, more orderly than 46% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	4	11.20 school +0.17	Martim Anderson / Rebecca Anderson 3.64 Mackenzie Bryan / Jennifer Agell 3.69 Conner Harding / Michael Mcbrien 3.67	71%	17–3 (85%)	+2.8
2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	1	11.43 school +0.14	Greiner Hobbs / Haley Okun 4.06 Charles Miller / Lindsey Kloc 3.39 Hector Guzman / Maya Weber 3.82	75%	16–4 (80%)	+0.9
3	Yale University Bulldogs	3	11.21 school +0.14	Nicholas Baird / Graceann Nicolosi 4.05 14–4 Malcolm Lamphere / Sonia Lingos-Utley 3.65 13–5 Nicolas Hernandez / Kira Woods 3.46 9–3 Shawn Harvey / Kira Woods 3.43 5–2 Shawn Harvey / Graceann Nicolosi 3.42 1–1 Shawn Harvey / Claudia Loiacono 3.19 2–0 Shawn Harvey / Sonia Lingos-Utley 3.32 1–0	72%	15–5 (75%)	+0.5
4	Georgetown University Hoyas	6	10.87 school −0.06	Roger Dorr / Haley Shea 3.57 12–6 Sean Segerblom / Meaghan Macrae 3.96 12–6 William Logue / Caroline Teare 3.40 9–5 Jack Marshall / Rebecca Fung 3.47 3–1 Roger Dorr / Claire Mohun 3.54 2–0 Sean Segerblom / Rebecca Fung 3.85 2–0 Jack Marshall / Carolyn Dahl 3.36 2–0	65%	14–6 (70%)	+0.9
5	College of Charleston Cougars	2	11.28 school +0.46	Christophe Killian / Elizabeth Pemberton 3.25 Augie Dale / Katherine Lounsbury 3.68 Stefano Peschiera / Grace Mccarthy 3.87	73%	12–8 (60%)	−2.5
6	George Washington University Colonials	9	9.90 school −0.10	Andrew Sheerin / Matthew Homa 3.23 Derek Poon Tip / Shira Golub 3.06 10–9 Kai Friesecke / Miranda Bakos 3.68 11–8 Kai Friesecke / Andreea Rainey-Pace 3.68 0–1 Derek Poon Tip / Isabel Strachan 3.01 1–0	46%	11–9 (55%)	+1.8
7	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5	10.76 school +0.17, home +0.41	Parker Loftus / Sarah Barkley 3.11 Gary Prieto / Ana Mier 3.62 Peter Hogan / Kelly Milliken 3.49 7–6 Maxwell Brill / Emma Remis 3.02 2–0	71%	9–6 (60%)	−1.6
8	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7	10.28 school +0.55	Bradley Adam / Kate Bjerregaard 3.37 Dane Byerly / Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger 3.25 Edmund Cooper / Kaisey Mccallion 3.09	62%	9–7 (56%)	−0.8
9	Old Dominion University Monarchs	8	9.75 school −0.11	James Jacob / Emily Harrison 2.75 Jeremy Herrin / Carter Little 3.71 7–8 Jack Elkin / Stephen Guglielmo 3.43 6–7 Jack Elkin / Gavin Burkhart 3.39 2–1 Dreugh Phillips / Carter Little 3.06 1–0	52%	8–8 (50%)	−0.2
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	13	8.48 school −0.35	Charles Lomax / Vincent Storino 3.50 Ryan Hunter / Kieran Cullen 2.58 Carrson Pearce / Luke Welker 2.57	31%	5–10 (33%)	+0.4
11	Tufts University Jumbos	10	9.13 school +0.09	Cameron Holley / Ian Morgan 2.98 Jack Bitney / Lara Dienemann 2.95 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk / Emily Shanley-Roberts 3.08	41%	5–10 (33%)	−1.2
12	Cornell University Big Red	11	8.69 school +0.25	Clark Uhl / Diana Otis 3.15 Thomas Balk / Grace Harrison 2.71 4–9 Gerard Eastman / Kimberly Wong 3–7 Gerard Eastman / Grace Harrison 1–2 Thomas Balk / Kimberly Wong 2.72 1–2 Luke Andersen / Kimberly Wong 2.64 1–2	35%	5–11 (31%)	−0.7
13	Fordham University Rams	12	8.55	Matt Cappetta / Annika Ekholm 2.90 Eduardo Mintzias / William Dumke 2.80 3–6 Roberto Stevens / Cortney Rielly 3.03 2–6 Tucker Hersam / Lauren Holderman 2.79 2–6 Brad Seferian / Katherine Jones 2.50 1–6	33%	4–12 (25%)	−1.2
14	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	14	7.14	Nicholas Floyd / Greta Morrissette 2.88 Tanner Probst / Emelia Bartusiak Joseph Laforgia / Lucy Sergeant 4–9 Keen Butcher / Lucy Sergeant 2.40 0–3	18%	4–12 (25%)	+1.1
15	University of Virginia Wahoos	16	6.44 school +0.09	Colin Suvak / Colleen Roney 2.56 Alexander Singh / Dorothy Stump 2.11 Julia Gowell / Waverlee Harvey 2–11 Julia Gowell / Katherine Green 1–2	9%	3–13 (19%)	+1.6
16	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	15	7.49	Kyle Comerford / Timothy Montera 3.23 John Lawless / Brian Buckley 2.35 Hunter Kahler / Aidan Molesky 1.92	18%	1–14 (7%)	−1.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
15	University of Virginia	6.44	7.52	3–13	1.4	+1.08	1.3	15%
1	Roger Williams University	11.20	12.18	17–3	14.2	+0.99	1.9	10%
14	University of Pennsylvania	7.14	7.77	4–12	2.9	+0.62	0.5	30%
6	George Washington University	9.90	10.43	11–9	9.2	+0.52	0.7	24%
2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	11.43	11.74	16–4	15.1	+0.31	0.2	42%
4	Georgetown University	10.87	11.15	14–6	13.1	+0.27	0.2	41%
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	8.48	8.67	5–10	4.6	+0.19	0.1	52%
3	Yale University	11.21	11.37	15–5	14.5	+0.16	0.1	50%
9	Old Dominion University	9.75	9.66	8–8	8.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
12	Cornell University	8.69	8.40	5–11	5.7	−0.29	0.1	78%
8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.28	9.96	9–7	9.9	−0.32	0.2	80%
11	Tufts University	9.13	8.57	5–10	6.2	−0.56	0.5	88%
13	Fordham University	8.55	7.99	4–12	5.2	−0.56	0.5	88%
7	U. S. Naval Academy	10.76	10.10	9–6	10.6	−0.67	0.8	92%
5	College of Charleston	11.28	10.53	12–8	14.5	−0.75	1.4	95%
16	SUNY Maritime College	7.49	5.99	1–14	2.7	−1.50	1.6	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Colin Suvak	University of Virginia	2.56	3.64	3–13	1.4	+1.08	1.3	15%
Alexander Singh	University of Virginia	2.11	3.19	3–13	1.4	+1.08	1.3	15%
Julia Gowell	University of Virginia	1.52	2.60	3–13	1.4	+1.08	1.3	15%
Martim Anderson	Roger Williams University	3.64	4.63	17–3	14.2	+0.99	1.9	10%
Conner Harding	Roger Williams University	3.67	4.66	17–3	14.2	+0.99	1.9	10%
Joseph Laforgia	University of Pennsylvania	2.20	2.97	4–9	2.7	+0.77	0.7	25%
Jack Marshall	Georgetown University	3.47	4.23	5–1	4.4	+0.76	0.3	48%
Andrew Sheerin	George Washington University	3.23	3.76	11–9	9.2	+0.52	0.7	24%
Nicholas Baird	Yale University	4.05	4.40	14–4	13.0	+0.34	0.2	40%
Charles Miller	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.39	3.70	16–4	15.1	+0.31	0.2	42%
Charles Lomax	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	3.50	3.68	5–10	4.6	+0.19	0.1	52%
Carrson Pearce	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	2.57	2.76	5–10	4.6	+0.19	0.1	52%
William Logue	Georgetown University	3.40	3.53	9–5	8.7	+0.13	0.0	54%
Eduardo Mintzias	Fordham University	2.80	2.88	3–6	2.9	+0.08	0.0	61%
Jeremy Herrin	Old Dominion University	3.71	3.57	7–8	7.4	−0.14	0.0	70%
Clark Uhl	Cornell University	3.15	2.86	5–11	5.7	−0.29	0.1	78%
Bradley Adam	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.37	3.06	9–7	9.9	−0.32	0.2	80%
Edmund Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.09	2.77	9–7	9.9	−0.32	0.2	80%
Roberto Stevens	Fordham University	3.03	2.60	2–6	2.4	−0.43	0.1	82%
Gary Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	3.62	2.96	9–6	10.6	−0.67	0.8	92%
Augie Dale	College of Charleston	3.68	2.93	12–8	14.5	−0.75	1.4	95%
Stefano Peschiera	College of Charleston	3.87	3.12	12–8	14.5	−0.75	1.4	95%
John Lawless	SUNY Maritime College	2.35	0.84	1–14	2.7	−1.50	1.6	98%
Keen Butcher	University of Pennsylvania	2.40	-0.60	0–3	0.2	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	Fordham University	92%
1	2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	3	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Tufts University	31%	upset
1	4	Yale University	Cornell University	95%
1	5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	59%
1	6	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	26%	upset
1	7	University of Virginia	Roger Williams University	1%	upset
1	8	College of Charleston	University of Pennsylvania	99%
1	9	Georgetown University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	93%
1	10	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	95%
1	11	Tufts University	Fordham University	65%
1	12	Yale University	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	13	George Washington University	University of Virginia	97%
1	14	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	98%
1	15	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	71%
1	16	Old Dominion University	College of Charleston	19%	upset
1	17	Georgetown University	Tufts University	85%
1	18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Yale University	53%
1	19	George Washington University	Fordham University	80%
1	20	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	21	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	87%
1	22	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	77%
1	23	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	58%
1	24	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	College of Charleston	54%
1	25	Fordham University	University of Virginia	89%
1	26	University of Pennsylvania	SUNY Maritime College	37%	upset
1	27	George Washington University	Tufts University	68%
1	28	U. S. Naval Academy	Yale University	53%
1	29	Roger Williams University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	94%
1	30	College of Charleston	Cornell University	93%
1	31	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	65%
1	32	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	84%
1	33	Tufts University	University of Virginia	94%
1	34	Yale University	University of Pennsylvania	98%
1	35	Roger Williams University	Fordham University	92%
1	36	SUNY Maritime College	College of Charleston	2%	upset
1	37	George Washington University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	81%
1	38	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	90%
1	39	Georgetown University	University of Virginia	99%
1	40	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	99%
1	41	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	89%
1	42	Yale University	College of Charleston	50%
1	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	81%
1	44	Old Dominion University	SUNY Maritime College	91%
1	45	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	University of Virginia	88%
1	46	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	17%	upset
1	47	George Washington University	Georgetown University	27%	upset
1	48	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	65%
1	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	76%
1	50	Yale University	Old Dominion University	78%
1	51	Fordham University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	58%
1	52	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	77%
1	53	Roger Williams University	George Washington University	78%
1	54	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	61%
1	55	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Virginia	98%
1	56	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	88%
1	57	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	93%
1	58	Georgetown University	Yale University	40%	upset
1	59	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	SUNY Maritime College	73%
1	60	George Washington University	Cornell University	77%
1	61	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	48%	upset
1	62	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	96%
1	63	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Virginia	99%
1	64	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	85%
1	65	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	23%	upset
1	66	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	67	Roger Williams University	Yale University	46%	upset
1	68	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Cornell University	45%	upset
1	69	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	82%
1	70	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Virginia	99%
1	71	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
1	72	Tufts University	University of Pennsylvania	87%
1	73	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	75%
1	74	Roger Williams University	Cornell University	92%
1	75	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	95%
1	76	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	51%
1	77	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	53%
1	78	College of Charleston	Tufts University	89%
1	79	University of Virginia	University of Pennsylvania	32%	upset
1	80	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	74%
1	81	Roger Williams University	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	82	Cornell University	Fordham University	54%
1	83	Old Dominion University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	78%
1	84	College of Charleston	George Washington University	80%
1	85	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	97%
1	86	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	52%
1	87	Yale University	Tufts University	90%
1	88	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	56%
1	89	Cornell University	University of Virginia	91%
1	90	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	92%
1	91	College of Charleston	Fordham University	94%
1	92	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	62%
1	93	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	86%
1	94	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Georgetown University	63%
1	95	Yale University	University of Virginia	99%
1	96	Tufts University	Cornell University	59%
1	97	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	28%	upset
1	98	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	80%
1	99	College of Charleston	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	94%
1	100	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	76%
1	101	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	28%	upset
1	102	Tufts University	SUNY Maritime College	84%
1	103	Georgetown University	Cornell University	89%
1	104	Old Dominion University	University of Virginia	96%
1	105	Yale University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	91%
1	106	Roger Williams University	University of Pennsylvania	98%
1	107	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	93%
1	108	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	94%
1	109	Old Dominion University	Tufts University	65%
1	110	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	58%
1	111	George Washington University	Yale University	20%	upset
1	112	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	University of Pennsylvania	78%
1	113	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	59%
1	114	University of Virginia	SUNY Maritime College	26%	upset
1	115	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Tufts University	91%
1	116	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	18%	upset
1	117	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	76%
1	118	Yale University	Fordham University	95%
1	119	George Washington University	University of Pennsylvania	92%
1	120	College of Charleston	University of Virginia	99%
6	124	Georgetown University	George Washington University	73%
6	125	Yale University	Roger Williams University	54%
6	126	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	46%	upset
6	127	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	58%
6	128	College of Charleston	George Washington University	80%
6	129	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	48%	upset
6	130	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	48%	upset
6	131	Yale University	Georgetown University	60%
6	132	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	82%
6	133	Yale University	College of Charleston	51%
6	134	Roger Williams University	George Washington University	78%
6	135	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	37%	upset
6	136	Yale University	George Washington University	80%
6	137	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	41%	upset
6	138	Roger Williams University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	44%	upset
8	122	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	62%
12	123	Cornell University	Fordham University	55%
14	121	University of Pennsylvania	University of Virginia	70%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Statesmen	Bulldogs	Hoyas	Cougars	Colonials	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Monarchs	Mariners	Jumbos	Red	Rams	Quakers	Wahoos	Privateers
Roger Williams University Hawks	13–2	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	15–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	10–5	L	L	✕	L	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	11–4	L	L	W	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	10–5	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	L
George Washington University Colonials	11–4	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	9–6	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	8–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	8–7	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Fordham University Rams	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	3–12	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–14	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Statesmen	Bulldogs	Hoyas	Cougars	Colonials
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	1–4	L	✕	L	L	L	W
Yale University Bulldogs	5–0	W	W	✕	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–2	L	W	L	✕	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	2–3	L	W	L	L	✕	W
George Washington University Colonials	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 8

	Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Monarchs
	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1–0	✕	W
	Old Dominion University Monarchs	0–1	L	✕

Round 12

	Team	Rec.	Red	Rams
	Cornell University Big Red	1–0	✕	W
	Fordham University Rams	0–1	L	✕

Round 14

	Team	Rec.	Quakers	Wahoos
	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1–0	✕	W
	University of Virginia Wahoos	0–1	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
2	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
3	Mariners	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
4	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
5	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
6	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
7	Wahoos	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
8	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
9	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
10	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
11	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
12	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
13	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
14	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
15	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
16	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
17	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
18	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
19	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
20	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
21	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
22	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
23	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
24	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
25	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
26	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
27	Colonials	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
28	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
29	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
30	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
31	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
32	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
33	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
34	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
35	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
36	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
37	Colonials	2-3-5	def.	Mariners	1-4-6
38	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
39	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Wahoos	2-4-6
40	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
41	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
42	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
43	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
44	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
45	Mariners	1-2-6	def.	Wahoos	3-4-5
46	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
47	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
48	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
49	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
50	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
51	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Mariners	2-4-6
52	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
53	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
54	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
55	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
56	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
57	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
58	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
59	Mariners	1-3-5	def.	Privateers	2-4-6
60	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
61	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
62	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
63	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
64	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
65	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
66	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
67	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
68	Mariners	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
69	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Colonials	2-5-6
70	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
71	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
72	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
73	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
74	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
75	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
76	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
77	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
78	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
79	Wahoos	1-3-5	def.	Quakers	2-4-6
80	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
81	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
82	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
83	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
84	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
85	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
86	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
87	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
88	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
89	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Wahoos	3-4-5
90	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
91	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
92	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
93	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
94	Statesmen	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas	2-3-6
95	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
96	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
97	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
98	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
99	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
100	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
101	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
102	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
103	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
104	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
105	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
106	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
107	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
108	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
109	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
110	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
111	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
112	Mariners	1-3-5	def.	Quakers	2-4-6
113	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
114	Wahoos	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
115	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
116	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
117	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
118	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
119	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
120	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
124	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
125	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
126	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6 DNF
127	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
128	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Colonials	2-3-6
129	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
130	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
131	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
132	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
133	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
134	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
135	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Statesmen	2-4-6
136	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
137	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
138	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
122	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
123	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
121	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Conner Harding '19 Mackenzie Bryan '18 Martim Anderson '18	Michael Mcbrien '18 Jennifer Agell '19 Rebecca Anderson '18
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Miller '19 Greiner Hobbs '18 Hector Guzman '20	Lindsey Kloc '19 Haley Okun '18 Maya Weber '20
Yale University	Bulldogs	Malcolm Lamphere '18 Nicholas Baird '19 Nicolas Hernandez '19 Shawn Harvey '22	Sonia Lingos-Utley '22 Graceann Nicolosi '20 Kira Woods '19 Claudia Loiacono '21
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Jack Marshall '18 Roger Dorr '18 Sean Segerblom '20 William Logue '20	Rebecca Fung '19 Carolyn Dahl '18 Haley Shea '19 Claire Mohun '19 Meaghan Macrae '18 Caroline Teare '21
College of Charleston	Cougars	Augie Dale '19 Christophe Killian '18 Stefano Peschiera '18	Katherine Lounsbury '20 Elizabeth Pemberton '18 Grace Mccarthy '18
George Washington University	Colonials	Andrew Sheerin '19 Derek Poon Tip '19 Kai Friesecke '18	Matthew Homa '18 Shira Golub '18 Isabel Strachan '18 Miranda Bakos '18 Andreea Rainey-Pace '20
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gary Prieto '18 Maxwell Brill '20 Parker Loftus '20 Peter Hogan '18	Ana Mier '19 Emma Remis '20 Sarah Barkley '19 Kelly Milliken '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Bradley Adam '17 Dane Byerly '20 Edmund Cooper '17	Kate Bjerregaard '19 Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 Kaisey Mccallion '19
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Dreugh Phillips '21 Jack Elkin '19 James Jacob '18 Jeremy Herrin '18	Carter Little '18 Stephen Guglielmo '19 Gavin Burkhart '20 Emily Harrison '21
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	Carrson Pearce '21 Charles Lomax '18 Ryan Hunter '21	Luke Welker '21 Vincent Storino '18 Kieran Cullen '21
Tufts University	Jumbos	Cameron Holley '19 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk '19 Jack Bitney '19	Ian Morgan '19 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18 Lara Dienemann '18
Cornell University	Big Red	Clark Uhl '19 Gerard Eastman '21 Luke Andersen '18 Thomas Balk '18	Diana Otis '19 Kimberly Wong '19 Grace Harrison '18
Fordham University	Rams	Brad Seferian '19 Eduardo Mintzias '21 Matt Cappetta '19 Roberto Stevens '19 Tucker Hersam '20	Katherine Jones '18 William Dumke '20 Annika Ekholm '20 Cortney Rielly '20 Lauren Holderman '18
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Joseph Laforgia '21 Keen Butcher '18 Nicholas Floyd '19 Tanner Probst '21	Lucy Sergeant '18 Greta Morrissette '21 Emelia Bartusiak '21
University of Virginia	Wahoos	Alexander Singh '19 Colin Suvak '19 Julia Gowell '18	Dorothy Stump '18 Colleen Roney '18 Waverlee Harvey '18 Katherine Green '19
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Hunter Kahler '21 John Lawless '19 Kyle Comerford '19	Aidan Molesky '20 Brian Buckley '21 Timothy Montera '18

Conditions — 03/17/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 52% · Pressure 1013.4 hPa

Temperature

39°F

↑ 42°F ↓ 30°F

Feels like 31°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.7 kn

avg · max 6.6 kn

Gusts to 15.9 kn

From W (261°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover84% Sunshine3.9 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1013.4 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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