James Jacob

Rating History

Team Race Rating

Rating	Rank	vs fleet rating	Record
1.81 (fleet 2.47)	unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active)	+0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts	as skipper 105–98 (52%)

Season	Regattas	Skipper W–L	Crew W–L
Spring 2018	7	47–53	—
Spring 2017	7	58–45	—

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 14 graded regattas (203 matches) the record is 105–98 against 89.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+15.5). 4 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 25 bits of surprise in all.

Date	Regatta	Role	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2018-04-07	Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship	skipper	2.66	2.90	8–13	6.9	+0.24	0.2	38%
2018-03-24	Aaron Szambecki Team Race	skipper	2.69	2.46	7–7	7.7	−0.23	0.1	75%
2018-03-17	Graham Hall Team Race	skipper	2.75	2.67	8–8	8.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
2018-03-10	John Jackson Memorial Team Race	skipper	2.71	3.13	10–7	8.7	+0.42	0.4	32%
2018-03-03	Georgetown Team Race	skipper	2.75	0.75	1–4	2.8	−2.01	2.6	99%
2018-02-24	St. Mary's Quad Team Race	skipper	2.76	3.35	13–11	10.6	+0.59	1.1	16%
2018-02-17	ODU Quad	skipper	2.78	-0.22	0–3	0.7	≤−3.00	1.2	>99%
2017-05-27	LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship	skipper	2.93	3.32	8–7	7.2	+0.39	0.2	40%
2017-04-08	Prosser Trophy	skipper	2.83	4.17	10–5	5.8	+1.34	4.0	2%
2017-04-01	MAISA Team Race Challenge	skipper	2.94	3.43	13–4	11.6	+0.48	0.5	31%
2017-03-25	2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race	skipper	2.75	4.67	18–3	11.8	+1.93	7.8	<1%
2017-03-18	Graham Hall	skipper	2.57	4.21	5–6	2.2	+1.64	3.7	2%
2017-03-11	St. Mary's Team Race Interconference	skipper	2.60	-0.40	0–9	2.1	≤−3.00	3.3	>99%
2017-03-04	GW Team Race	skipper	2.35	2.77	4–11	3.0	+0.42	0.3	36%

Regatta results

Regatta	Role	Div	Races	Avg	Rating
Spring 2018 Team page Season
St. Mary's Quad Team Race	Skipper	TR	9	56%	—
ODU Quad	Skipper	TR	6	33%	—
John Jackson Memorial Team Race	Skipper	TR	17	59%	—
Graham Hall Team Race	Skipper	TR	15	53%	—
Gill Coed National Championships	Skipper	A	2	11.0	3.84
Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal	Skipper	A	2	5.5	4.66
Georgetown Team Race	Skipper	TR	5	40%	—
Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship	Skipper	TR	21	38%	—
Admirals Cup	Skipper	A	10	10.5	3.46
Aaron Szambecki Team Race	Skipper	TR	14	50%	—
Fall 2017 Team page Season
Truxtun Umsted	Skipper	C	13	12.7	2.12
Spring 2017 Team page Season
Thompson Trophy	Skipper	A	13	14.3	2.47
St. Mary's Team Race Interconference	Skipper	TR	9	0%	—
Prosser Trophy	Skipper	TR	14	71%	—
MAISA Team Race Challenge	Skipper	TR	17	76%	—
LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship	Skipper	TR	15	53%	—
GW Team Race	Skipper	TR	15	27%	—
Graham Hall	Skipper	TR	15	40%	—
America Trophy - MAISA Conference Championship	Skipper	A	3	8.7	3.63
2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race	Skipper	TR	21	86%	—

Linked Profiles

League	Name	School	Year
ICSA	James Jacob	Tufts University	'19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How do skipper ratings work?A log-strength fitted to every race at once, smoothed week to week.
What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
How does a crew rating work?A crew rating is small and uncertain; a worked example on one roster.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.

All notes →