| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 13–2 |
| 2 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 11–4 |
| 3 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 10–5 |
| 4 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 6–9 |
| 5 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 4–11 |
| 6 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 1–14 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,487 team race matches sailed before 2017-03-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 30 of 45 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.668 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.62 ± 0.28: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 7% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Fordham University | 9.22 | 10.74 | 10–5 | 5.9 | +1.51 | 4.5 | 1% |
| 4 | George Washington University | 8.51 | 9.46 | 6–9 | 3.6 | +0.95 | 1.7 | 10% |
| 1 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 11.16 | 11.62 | 13–2 | 12.2 | +0.46 | 0.3 | 43% |
| 5 | Old Dominion University | 8.32 | 8.74 | 4–11 | 3.0 | +0.42 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2 | Georgetown University | 10.87 | 10.71 | 11–4 | 11.4 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 6 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 10.11 | 6.47 | 1–14 | 8.9 | −3.64 | 17.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Holz | Fordham University | 3.16 | 4.67 | 10–5 | 5.9 | +1.51 | 4.5 | 1% |
| Alecsander Tayler | Fordham University | 3.40 | 4.92 | 10–5 | 5.9 | +1.51 | 4.5 | 1% |
| Sam White | George Washington University | 2.80 | 3.75 | 6–9 | 3.6 | +0.95 | 1.7 | 10% |
| Charles Miller | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 3.27 | 3.73 | 13–2 | 12.2 | +0.46 | 0.3 | 43% |
| Lee Dumaliang | Old Dominion University | 2.95 | 3.37 | 4–11 | 3.0 | +0.42 | 0.3 | 36% |
| Andy Reiter | Georgetown University | 3.30 | 3.13 | 11–4 | 11.4 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 73% |
| William Logue | Georgetown University | 3.38 | 3.21 | 11–4 | 11.4 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Roberto Stevens | Fordham University | 2.75 | 1.31 | 1–2 | 2.0 | −1.44 | 1.1 | 97% |
| Carolyn Smith | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.23 | -0.41 | 1–14 | 8.9 | −3.64 | 17.7 | >99% |
| Patrick Tara | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.05 | -0.59 | 1–14 | 8.9 | −3.64 | 17.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Statesmen | Hoyas | Rams | Colonials | Monarchs | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Statesmen | Hoyas | Rams | Colonials | Monarchs | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 4–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 4–1 | W | W | ✕ | L | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 2–3 | L | L | W | ✕ | L | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 1–4 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | L |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Statesmen | Hoyas | Rams | Colonials | Monarchs | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 4–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 3–2 | W | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 2–3 | L | L | W | ✕ | L | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 2–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Statesmen | 2-4-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 1-3-6 OCS |
| 2 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Colonials | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Colonials | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Statesmen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Colonials | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Colonials | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hoyas | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Colonials | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 44 | |
Rams | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 2-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | Charles Miller '19 Greiner Hobbs '18 Hector Guzman '20 |
Lindsey Kloc '19 Sarah Warren '18 Maya Weber '20 |
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | Andy Reiter '19 Sean Segerblom '20 William Logue '20 |
Hannah Hess '19 Claire Mohun '19 Albert Kraus '17 |
|
Fordham University | Rams | Alecsander Tayler '17 Matt Cappetta '19 Roberto Stevens '19 Will Holz '17 |
Katherine Jones '18 Cortney Rielly '20 Makena Masterson '19 |
|
George Washington University | Colonials | Rhodes Garner '20 Sam White '18 Wade Wagner '19 |
Zachary Lehan '20 Sarah Noyes '20 Gabriella Malek '17 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | Dreugh Phillips '21 James Jacob '18 Lee Dumaliang '17 |
Gavin Burkhart '20 Dane Pedersen '19 Stephen Guglielmo '19 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Carolyn Smith '17 Liam Mccarthy '19 Patrick Tara '17 |
Julia Monro '17 Dyson Lord '19 Kaisey Mccallion '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
