Fordham University '19
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 88.57 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.114 rating points from 26 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.57 (fleet 3.53) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 82–106 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 5 | 32–31 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 12–26 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 5 | 34–33 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 4–16 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 14 graded regattas (188 matches) the record is 82–106 against 82.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 20 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-25 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.27 | 2.93 | 6–9 | 6.7 | −0.33 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 2019-04-06 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.21 | 3.75 | 6–8 | 4.4 | +0.54 | 0.6 | 25% |
| 2019-03-23 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.21 | 3.97 | 8–2 | 7.1 | +0.75 | 0.5 | 39% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | skipper | 3.09 | 3.63 | 8–7 | 6.7 | +0.55 | 0.5 | 30% |
| 2019-03-09 | St. Mary's Team Race InterConference | skipper | 3.11 | 3.16 | 4–5 | 3.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.90 | 2.34 | 4–12 | 5.2 | −0.56 | 0.5 | 88% |
| 2018-03-10 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.90 | 2.47 | 6–11 | 7.2 | −0.43 | 0.4 | 84% |
| 2018-03-03 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.97 | 3.00 | 2–3 | 2.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2017-04-08 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.04 | 2.81 | 5–9 | 5.6 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2017-04-01 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.02 | 3.26 | 12–5 | 11.3 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2017-03-25 | NEISA/MAISA Team Race | skipper | 2.72 | 2.88 | 7–11 | 6.4 | +0.16 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2017-03-11 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.71 | 0.62 | 1–5 | 2.9 | −2.09 | 2.8 | 99% |
| 2017-03-04 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.61 | 4.89 | 9–3 | 3.9 | +2.29 | 8.5 | <1% |
| 2016-03-19 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.33 | 0.77 | 4–16 | 9.3 | −1.56 | 5.8 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race InterConference | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.3 | 3.52 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| America Trophy | Crew | A | 3 | 5.7 | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Crew | A, B | 16 | 7.2 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Crew | A | 6 | 7.3 | — |
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.8 | 3.80 |
| Jesuit Invitational | Skipper | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 12.4 | 3.51 |
| The Coed Showcase A Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 13.3 | 2.25 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.6 | 3.53 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 35% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| America Trophy | Crew | B | 3 | 6.3 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Crew | A, B | 6 | 9.2 | — |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.6 | 3.12 |
| St. Mary's Fall InterConference | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.2 | 3.38 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta 2018 | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.9 | 4.03 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.4 | 3.13 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.6 | 3.64 |
| NEISA/MAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 39% | — |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 17 | 71% | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.8 | 2.47 |
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | A | 3 | 11.7 | 3.08 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.5 | 2.74 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.8 | 3.31 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.8 | 2.23 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 8 | 7.1 | 3.13 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.1 | 3.23 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 20% | — |
| Mosbacher, Owen, Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.6 | 1.70 |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.2 | 3.01 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.9 | 2.79 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.2 | 2.11 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.0 | 2.44 |
| Central Fall Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.7 | 3.06 |
| 33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.4 | 3.07 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Matt Cappetta |  The Bishop's School |
'14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
