Prosser Trophy

HostSt. Mary's
Date04/06/2019
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	12–2
2	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	11–3
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	8–6
4	Fordham University	Rams	6–8
5	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	5–9
6	George Washington University	Colonials	5–9
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	5–9
8	Cornell University	Big Red	4–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 13,407 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 37 of 56 matches (66%) with a log-loss of 0.577 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.04 ± 0.31: a typical event, more orderly than 46% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	1	11.78 school +0.16	Andy Reiter / Haley Shea 3.84 Sean Segerblom / Rebecca Fung 4.07 William Logue / Caroline Teare 3.70	82%	12–2 (86%)	+0.6
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3	10.89 school +0.35	Parker Loftus / Sally Johnson 3.49 Connor Bayless / Ana Mier 3.63 Maxwell Brill / Emma Remis 3.38 7–1 Jc Hermus / Kimmie Leonard 3.46 4–2	63%	11–3 (79%)	+2.2
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2	10.93 school +0.14	Charles Miller / Lindsey Kloc 3.69 Hector Guzman / Maya Weber 3.87 Kyle Easton / Aidan Morgan 3.21	64%	8–6 (57%)	−0.9
4	Fordham University Rams	7	9.63 school +0.24	Tucker Hersam / Annika Ekholm 2.95 Matt Cappetta / Jacqueline Tobin 3.21 Brad Seferian / Cortney Rielly 3.21	32%	6–8 (43%)	+1.6
5	Old Dominion University Monarchs	6	9.64 school +0.05	Jack Elkin / Abigail Tutt 3.58 Dreugh Phillips / Makalynne Dyer 3.24 Bridget Groble / Emily Harrison 2.76	32%	5–9 (36%)	+0.6
6	George Washington University Colonials	5	10.34 school +0.14	Andrew Sheerin / Zachary Lehan 3.77 Derek Poon Tip / Clare Cassidy-Gardner 3.30 Matt Logue / Michael Houllahan 3.12	49%	5–9 (36%)	−1.9
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4	10.39 school +0.39, home +0.39	Liam Mccarthy / Kaisey Mccallion 3.27 Leo Boucher / Ashley Wagner 3.14 Lewis Cooper / Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger 3.16	50%	5–9 (36%)	−2.0
8	Cornell University Big Red	8	9.53 school +0.19	Clark Uhl / Adeline Sutton 3.47 Gabby Rizika / Diana Otis 2.87 Brooke Shachoy / Kimberly Wong	29%	4–10 (29%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	U. S. Naval Academy	10.89	11.77	11–3	8.8	+0.88	1.3	16%
4	Fordham University	9.63	10.17	6–8	4.4	+0.54	0.6	25%
1	Georgetown University	11.78	12.08	12–2	11.4	+0.31	0.1	51%
5	Old Dominion University	9.64	9.84	5–9	4.4	+0.20	0.1	47%
8	Cornell University	9.53	9.49	4–10	4.1	−0.04	0.0	63%
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	10.93	10.62	8–6	8.9	−0.31	0.2	80%
6	George Washington University	10.34	9.71	5–9	6.9	−0.63	0.8	92%
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.39	9.71	5–9	7.0	−0.67	1.0	93%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Maxwell Brill	U. S. Naval Academy	3.38	5.10	7–1	5.0	+1.73	2.3	10%
Andy Reiter	Georgetown University	3.84	4.14	12–2	11.4	+0.31	0.1	51%
William Logue	Georgetown University	3.70	4.01	12–2	11.4	+0.31	0.1	51%
Jc Hermus	U. S. Naval Academy	3.46	3.58	4–2	3.9	+0.12	0.0	63%
Clark Uhl	Cornell University	3.47	3.43	4–10	4.1	−0.04	0.0	63%
Gabby Rizika	Cornell University	2.87	2.83	4–10	4.1	−0.04	0.0	63%
Charles Miller	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.69	3.38	8–6	8.9	−0.31	0.2	80%
Andrew Sheerin	George Washington University	3.77	3.14	5–9	6.9	−0.63	0.8	92%
Lewis Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.16	2.48	5–9	7.0	−0.67	1.0	93%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	33%	upset
1	2	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	77%
1	3	Georgetown University	Cornell University	91%
1	4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	36%	upset
1	5	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	63%
1	6	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	89%
1	7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	68%
1	8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	81%
1	9	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	72%
1	10	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	49%	upset
1	11	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	54%
1	12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	79%
1	13	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	80%
1	14	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	79%
1	15	George Washington University	Fordham University	67%
1	16	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	78%
1	17	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	30%	upset
1	18	Georgetown University	Fordham University	90%
1	19	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	79%
1	20	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	36%	upset
1	21	Fordham University	Cornell University	53%
1	22	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	32%	upset
1	23	Georgetown University	George Washington University	81%
1	24	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	50%
1	25	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	50%	upset
1	26	Cornell University	George Washington University	31%	upset
1	27	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	64%
1	28	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	70%
2	29	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	33%	upset
2	30	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	77%
2	31	Georgetown University	Cornell University	90%
2	32	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	63%
2	33	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	63%
2	34	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	89%
2	35	Fordham University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	32%	upset
2	36	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	20%	upset
2	37	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	28%	upset
2	38	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	51%
2	39	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	48%	upset
2	40	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	79%
2	41	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	80%
2	42	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	79%
2	43	Fordham University	George Washington University	33%	upset
2	44	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	78%
2	45	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	70%
2	46	Georgetown University	Fordham University	90%
2	47	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	79%
2	48	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	64%
2	49	Fordham University	Cornell University	52%
2	50	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	32%	upset
2	51	George Washington University	Georgetown University	19%	upset
2	52	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	50%	upset
2	53	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	50%	upset
2	54	George Washington University	Cornell University	69%
2	55	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	37%	upset
2	56	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	70%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Statesmen	Rams	Monarchs	Colonials	Seahawks	Red
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–4	L	L	✕	W	W	L	L	W
Fordham University Rams	2–5	L	L	L	✕	W	L	L	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	3–4	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–5	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	L
Cornell University Big Red	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Statesmen	Rams	Monarchs	Colonials	Seahawks	Red
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–2	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–2	W	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5–2	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	L
Fordham University Rams	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L
George Washington University Colonials	2–5	W	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–4	L	W	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Cornell University Big Red	2–5	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
2	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
3	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
4	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
5	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
6	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
7	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
8	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
9	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
10	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
11	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
12	Statesmen	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
13	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
14	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Big Red	2-4-5
15	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
16	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
17	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
18	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
19	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
20	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
21	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
22	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
23	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
24	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
25	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
26	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
27	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
28	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
29	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
30	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
31	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
32	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
33	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
34	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
35	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
36	Big Red	1-3-6	def.	Statesmen	2-4-5
37	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
38	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
39	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
40	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
41	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
42	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
43	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Colonials	2-5-6
44	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
45	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
46	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
47	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
48	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Colonials	2-5-6
49	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
50	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
51	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
52	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
53	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
54	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
55	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-4-6
56	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Andy Reiter '19 Sean Segerblom '20 William Logue '20	Haley Shea '19 Rebecca Fung '19 Caroline Teare '21
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Connor Bayless '21 Jc Hermus '22 Maxwell Brill '20 Parker Loftus '20	Ana Mier '19 Kimmie Leonard '22 Emma Remis '20 Sally Johnson '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Miller '19 Hector Guzman '20 Kyle Easton '20	Lindsey Kloc '19 Maya Weber '20 Aidan Morgan '21
Fordham University	Rams	Brad Seferian '19 Matt Cappetta '19 Tucker Hersam '20	Cortney Rielly '20 Jacqueline Tobin '20 Annika Ekholm '20
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Bridget Groble '22 Dreugh Phillips '21 Jack Elkin '19	Emily Harrison '21 Makalynne Dyer '22 Abigail Tutt '21
George Washington University	Colonials	Andrew Sheerin '19 Derek Poon Tip '19 Matt Logue '22	Zachary Lehan '20 Clare Cassidy-Gardner '21 Michael Houllahan '20
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Leo Boucher '22 Lewis Cooper '21 Liam Mccarthy '19	Ashley Wagner '20 Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 Kaisey Mccallion '19
Cornell University	Big Red	Brooke Shachoy '22 Clark Uhl '19 Gabby Rizika '20	Kimberly Wong '19 Adeline Sutton '21 Diana Otis '19

Conditions — 04/06/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 80% · Pressure 1023.2 hPa

Temperature

53°F

↑ 58°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.1 kn

avg · max 8.8 kn

Gusts to 18.9 kn

From N (11°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover53% Sunshine8.4 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1023.2 hPa

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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