Fordham University '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.48 (fleet 3.37) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 79–91 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 6 | 38–37 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 5 | 19–33 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 22–21 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 13 graded regattas (168 matches) the record is 78–90 against 67.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+10.3). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 19 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-25 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.33 | 3.00 | 6–9 | 6.7 | −0.33 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 2019-04-06 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.21 | 3.74 | 6–8 | 4.4 | +0.54 | 0.6 | 25% |
| 2019-03-23 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.22 | 3.97 | 8–2 | 7.1 | +0.75 | 0.5 | 39% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | skipper | 3.15 | 3.69 | 8–7 | 6.7 | +0.55 | 0.5 | 30% |
| 2019-03-09 | St. Mary's Team Race InterConference | skipper | 3.11 | 3.16 | 4–5 | 3.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2019-03-02 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 3.08 | 3.15 | 6–6 | 5.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2018-03-31 | Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.33 | 1.09 | 4–8 | 6.6 | −1.24 | 2.3 | 98% |
| 2018-03-24 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.37 | 2.49 | 8–9 | 7.7 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.50 | 0.63 | 1–6 | 2.4 | −1.86 | 1.7 | 99% |
| 2018-03-10 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.52 | 2.89 | 5–9 | 3.9 | +0.38 | 0.3 | 35% |
| 2017-04-02 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 2.57 | 4.96 | 7–3 | 1.8 | +2.39 | 9.5 | <1% |
| 2017-03-25 | NEISA/MAISA Team Race | skipper | 2.41 | 2.57 | 7–11 | 6.4 | +0.16 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2017-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.02 | 3.28 | 8–7 | 4.2 | +1.26 | 3.6 | 2% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race InterConference | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.6 | 3.43 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.8 | 3.46 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.0 | 4.46 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.5 | 3.12 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.2 | 4.43 |
| Oyster Bowl Fleet 1 | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.0 | 0.99 |
| Jesuit Invitational | Skipper | A | 1 | 9.0 | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.5 | 2.79 |
| The Coed Showcase A Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 14.5 | 2.23 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 12 | 9.2 | 3.41 |
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 3 | 8.7 | 3.46 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.9 | 3.39 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 47% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | D | 13 | 12.4 | 2.54 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 14.0 | 1.89 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.0 | 2.95 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.8 | 1.93 |
| Jesuit Interconference | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.8 | 3.48 |
| 35th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.5 | 2.36 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| NEISA/MAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 39% | — |
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | C | 3 | 16.0 | 0.72 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Jesuit Interconference | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.7 | 3.51 |
| David Lee Arnoff | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.4 | 2.31 |
| 34th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.6 | 2.59 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.0 | 2.67 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.1 | 1.64 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.3 | 1.97 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Brad Seferian |  Wayland High School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
