| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 14–4 |
| 2 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 10–8 |
| 3 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 9–9 |
| 4 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 6–9 |
| 5 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 7–11 |
| 6 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 5–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,016 team race matches sailed before 2017-03-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 36 of 51 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.588 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.07 ± 0.35: a typical event, more orderly than 50% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fordham University | 8.18 | 8.34 | 7–11 | 6.4 | +0.16 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 6 | Roger Williams University | 8.04 | 8.11 | 5–10 | 4.8 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 4 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 8.26 | 8.29 | 6–9 | 5.9 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 1 | Yale University | 9.92 | 9.86 | 14–4 | 14.2 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 3 | Boston University | 8.69 | 8.61 | 9–9 | 9.3 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2 | Boston College | 9.14 | 9.02 | 10–8 | 10.5 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Dimarchi | Yale University | 3.06 | 3.37 | 9–2 | 8.5 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 2.32 | 2.35 | 6–9 | 5.9 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Drake Lyon | Boston College | 2.81 | 2.68 | 10–8 | 10.5 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Christopher Champa | Yale University | 2.22 | 1.69 | 7–4 | 8.2 | −0.53 | 0.5 | 88% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Bulldogs | Eagles | Terriers | Statesmen | Rams | Hawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale University Bulldogs | 4–1 | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 3–2 | L | W | ✕ | W | L | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 2–3 | W | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 2–3 | L | L | W | W | ✕ | L |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bulldogs | Eagles | Terriers | Statesmen | Rams | Hawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale University Bulldogs | 4–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 2–3 | L | ✕ | W | L | W | L |
| Boston University Terriers | 3–2 | W | L | ✕ | W | W | L |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 3–2 | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–2 | L | W | W | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bulldogs | Eagles | Terriers | Statesmen | Rams | Hawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale University Bulldogs | 6–2 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 5–3 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | L |
| Boston University Terriers | 3–5 | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 1–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 5–3 | L | L | W | W | ✕ | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 1–4 | L | W | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Terriers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Statesmen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
Eagles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 1-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Eagles | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Statesmen | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Terriers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Eagles | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Statesmen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 1-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Terriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Terriers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Hawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 2-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Terriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 2-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Terriers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Statesmen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-3-6 |
| 31 | |
Eagles | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Terriers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Rams | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Terriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Rams | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 2-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Terriers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 43 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-5 |
| 44 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-5 |
| 48 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-3-6 |
| 50 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Yale University | Bulldogs | Casey Klingler '18 Christopher Champa '18 Dylan Dimarchi '20 Nicolas Hernandez '19 |
Isabelle Rossi De Leon '17 Amelia Dobronyi '17 Caroline Colwell '18 |
|
Boston College | Eagles | Colin Brego '20 Drake Lyon '18 Thomas Walden '20 |
Elizabeth Matheson '20 Caroline Downey '19 Fiona Walsh '17 |
|
Boston University | Terriers | Josh Dochoda '20 Lydia Grasberger '18 Reed Lorimer '18 |
Charles Honke '20 Meredith Harrington '18 Hannah Davis '19 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | Connor Swikart '18 Noah Barrengos Barrengos '18 Pierre Thibodeau '20 |
Jessica Lietz '20 Emily Lorimer '20 Haley Okun '18 |
|
Fordham University | Rams | Brad Seferian '19 Matt Cappetta '19 Tucker Hersam '20 |
Emma Archard '18 Brigid Murphy '20 William Dumke '20 |
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks | Daniel Petrovic '19 Peter Neal '20 Preston Duclos '19 |
Alden Crowe '19 Kristi Dolan '20 Kylie Freitas '20 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
