Hobart and William Smith Colleges '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.33 (fleet 3.21) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–11 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 4–2 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 6–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 10–11 against 10.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-09 | St. Mary's Team Race InterConference | skipper | 2.66 | 2.49 | 4–2 | 4.2 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 75% |
| 2017-03-25 | NEISA/MAISA Team Race | skipper | 2.82 | 2.85 | 6–9 | 5.9 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.0 | — |
| Jesuit Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.5 | 3.21 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial | Skipper | B | 14 | 3.0 | 3.32 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race InterConference | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.8 | 2.27 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Top 9 Regatta Coed | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.6 | 0.59 |
| Jesuit Invitational | Skipper | A | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.2 | 3.60 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.1 | 3.05 |
| Cayuga Lake Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.4 | 3.03 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.1 | 3.55 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.4 | 3.73 |
| Jesuit Interconference | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.2 | 4.02 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.1 | 4.20 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.6 | 2.81 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.3 | 3.10 |
| NEISA/MAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.6 | 3.25 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 10.5 | 2.95 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.0 | 2.82 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Peter Thibodeau |  Tabor Academy |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
