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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 19 21 40
2 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 55 55 110
3 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 74 47 121
4 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 95 46 141
5 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 62 81 143
6 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 116 27 143
7 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 68 81 149
8 University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Panthers 71 108 179
9 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 67 121 188
10 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 68 120 188
11 University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 83 113 196
12 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 86 118 204
13 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 138 95 233
14 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 161 129 290
15 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 157 159 316
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 8 1 1 19 Pierre Thibodeau '20 [1-4]
Michael Munger '20 [5-11]
Gabriel Mccollester '23 [1-4]
Tory Mileti '22 [5-11]
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 2 10 3 10 3 8 3 2 1 2 11 55 Connor Mraz '23
Jorge Zreik '22
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 5 7 8 5 7 5 5 4 10 4 2 62 Owen Ward '22
Jack Murray '22
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 4 3 5 11 9 3 6 10 2 11 3 67 Katarina Catallo '20
Helen Bechler '22
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 7 4 4 4 6 2 4 11 6 10 10 68 Jeremy Mccauley '20
Kristin Hess '22
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 11 6 9 3 8 4 7 6 3 5 6 68 Stewart Gurnell '23
Andrew Vernon '20
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Panthers 3 8 10 13 4 10 1 5 7 3 7 71 Stanley Galloway '22
Madeline Love '23
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 9 2 7 6 11 6 8 3 12 6 4 74 Christopher Magno '22
Brock Diaz '23
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 12 5 6 7 2 7 11 12 4 9 8 83 Scott Mckinney '21 [1-11]
Feiyang Deng '20 [1-6]
Cathal Brannigan '21 [7-11]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 6 9 2 2 12 11 9 7 9 7 12 86 Cole Daitch '20
Julie Coffman '22
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 8 13 11 8 5 12 12 8 5 8 5 95 Constantyn Van Der Voort '23
Maria Torregrosa '21
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 10 11 13 12 10 9 10 9 11 12 9 116 Madeline Delvescovo '20 [1-11]
Sarah Schon '24 [1-2]
Haley Clemson '20 [3-11]
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 13 12 12 9 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 138 Alix Trébaol '21 [1-11]
Alison Keenan '22 [1-6]
Isabelle Wagler '23 [7-11]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 14 14 14 14 15 14 14 14 14 15 15 157 Dane Brazinski '21 [1-3]
William Harrington '23 [4-11]
Regina Trejo '21 [1-3]
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 15 15 15 15 14 15 15 15 15 14 13 161 Clara Bartram '22 [1-2]
James Nichols '21 [3-4]
Hannah Lamb '23 [5-11]
James Nichols '21 [1-2]
Clara Bartram '22 [3-4]
Alexa Zammit '22 [5-11]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 1 1 4 1 2 1 4 3 1 1 21 Charles Kilvert '20
Alice Mitchell '22
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 1 2 2 3 4 1 5 2 1 2 4 27 Toby Sullivan '24
Lindsey Winter '20
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 3 3 3 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 46 Nathan Whisner '23
Grace Holloway '21
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 8 13 6 1 2 3 3 1 5 3 2 47 Reid Shanabrook '22
Samuel Elder '23
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 4 6 4 6 3 4 7 11 2 5 3 55 Anne Sidamon-Eristoff '20 [1-11]
Adrienne Mandelbaum '20 [1-6, 9-11]
Adam Mcclain '21 [7-8]
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 5 5 5 7 10 11 6 7 6 11 8 81 Brian Tiernan '21
Cameron Hunter '21
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 7 9 7 8 11 7 2 6 9 8 7 81 William Sunkler '20
Andrew Tran '23
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 14 12 DSQ 2 8 12 8 3 7 7 6 95 Sean Lee '23 [1-11]
Caroline Spiggle '23 [1-6]
Alison Keenan '22 [7-11]
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Panthers 10 7 11 11 6 6 11 8 14 13 11 108 Geoffrey Wells '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Bryce Merrill '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Mckenzie Brown '21 [1-4, 9-11]
Bryce Merrill '21 [5-6]
Geoffrey Wells '19 [7-8]
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 11 15 13 9 9 8 10 13 10 6 9 113 Bartholomew Skala '23 [1-2, 9-11]
Sean Kilcullen '20 [3-4]
Eric Elias '22 [5-8]
Molly Raichle '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Chloe Campbell '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Feiyang Deng '20 [9-11]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 9 11 9 14 13 14 9 9 11 9 10 118 Natalie Jones '20
Anna O'Connell '22
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 15 4 10 10 7 9 12 12 12 15 14 120 Jonathan Gorman '21 [1-6, 9-11]
Samantha Mislinski '19 [7-8]
Kyra Gilmore '21 [1-6, 9-11]
Ryan Magill '22 [7-8]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 6 8 8 12 14 10 14 14 13 10 12 121 Matthew Weisenfluh '20 [1-11]
Sarah Besecky '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Annie Fuhrman '21 [3-4, 7-8]
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 13 10 12 13 12 13 13 10 8 12 13 129 Henry Jensen '23
Emily Robinson '22
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 12 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 15 159 Charlotte Smith '22
Erin Splaine '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights779911111313151515
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions11335577999
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons22446688101010
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen33557799111111
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps88101012121414111
University of PittsburghUniversity of Pittsburgh Panthers99111113131515222
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers4466881010121212
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets10101212141411333
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves5577991111131313
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange668810101212141414
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats121214141133555
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos11111313151522444
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies131315152244666
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen1414113355777
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe1515224466888

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights88101012121414111
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions22446688101010
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons33557799111111
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen4466881010121212
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps99111113131515222
University of PittsburghUniversity of Pittsburgh Panthers10101212141411333
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers5577991111131313
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets11111313151522444
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves668810101212141414
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange779911111313151515
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats131315152244666
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos121214141133555
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies1414113355777
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen1515224466888
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe11335577999
School / Team SkipperCrew
Columbia University Columbia University Alix Trébaol '21 [1-11] Alison Keenan '22 [1-6]
Isabelle Wagler '23 [7-11]
Lions Sean Lee '23 [1-11] Caroline Spiggle '23 [1-6]
Alison Keenan '22 [7-11]
Drexel University Drexel University Madeline Delvescovo '20 [1-11] Sarah Schon '24 [1-2]
Haley Clemson '20 [3-11]
Dragons Toby Sullivan '24 Lindsey Winter '20
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Pierre Thibodeau '20 [1-4]
Michael Munger '20 [5-11]		 Gabriel Mccollester '23 [1-4]
Tory Mileti '22 [5-11]
Statesmen Charles Kilvert '20 Alice Mitchell '22
Princeton University Princeton University Connor Mraz '23 Jorge Zreik '22
Tigers Anne Sidamon-Eristoff '20 [1-11] Adrienne Mandelbaum '20 [1-6, 9-11]
Adam Mcclain '21 [7-8]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Jeremy Mccauley '20 Kristin Hess '22
Seawolves Jonathan Gorman '21 [1-6, 9-11]
Samantha Mislinski '19 [7-8]		 Kyra Gilmore '21 [1-6, 9-11]
Ryan Magill '22 [7-8]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Dane Brazinski '21 [1-3]
William Harrington '23 [4-11]		 Regina Trejo '21 [1-3]
Orange Charlotte Smith '22 Erin Splaine '23
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Clara Bartram '22 [1-2]
James Nichols '21 [3-4]
Hannah Lamb '23 [5-11]		 James Nichols '21 [1-2]
Clara Bartram '22 [3-4]
Alexa Zammit '22 [5-11]
Black Knights Henry Jensen '23 Emily Robinson '22
University of Maryland University of Maryland Cole Daitch '20 Julie Coffman '22
Terps Natalie Jones '20 Anna O'Connell '22
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Stanley Galloway '22 Madeline Love '23
Panthers Geoffrey Wells '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Bryce Merrill '21 [3-4, 7-8]		 Mckenzie Brown '21 [1-4, 9-11]
Bryce Merrill '21 [5-6]
Geoffrey Wells '19 [7-8]
University of Rochester University of Rochester Scott Mckinney '21 [1-11] Feiyang Deng '20 [1-6]
Cathal Brannigan '21 [7-11]
Yellowjackets Bartholomew Skala '23 [1-2, 9-11]
Sean Kilcullen '20 [3-4]
Eric Elias '22 [5-8]		 Molly Raichle '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Chloe Campbell '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Feiyang Deng '20 [9-11]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Katarina Catallo '20 Helen Bechler '22
Wahoos Matthew Weisenfluh '20 [1-11] Sarah Besecky '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Annie Fuhrman '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Villanova University Villanova University Owen Ward '22 Jack Murray '22
Wildcats Brian Tiernan '21 Cameron Hunter '21
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Christopher Magno '22 Brock Diaz '23
Hokies Reid Shanabrook '22 Samuel Elder '23
Washington College Washington College Stewart Gurnell '23 Andrew Vernon '20
Shoremen William Sunkler '20 Andrew Tran '23
William and Mary William and Mary Constantyn Van Der Voort '23 Maria Torregrosa '21
Tribe Nathan Whisner '23 Grace Holloway '21

Conditions — 10/19/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1018.2 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.1 kn
avg  ·  max 3.5 kn
Gusts to 9.3 kn
From SE (129°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover48% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1018.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 5 kn* · S 11 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hobart & William: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.31 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 14 labelled days at Hobart & William, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →