Princeton University '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.59 (fleet 3.59) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 25–48 (34%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 23–27 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 2–13 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 0–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (73 matches) the record is 25–48 against 26.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.64 | 3.18 | 14–7 | 12.5 | +0.53 | 0.6 | 28% |
| 2023-03-11 | Wood Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.69 | 2.66 | 2–12 | 2.0 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2023-03-04 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 2.61 | 2.40 | 7–8 | 7.4 | −0.21 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2022-03-19 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.27 | 1.01 | 2–13 | 4.8 | −1.25 | 2.3 | 98% |
| 2019-03-09 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 1.61 | -1.39 | 0–8 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.5 | 3.85 |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 2.8 | 4.39 |
| The Grant | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.8 | 3.74 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 16 | 3.1 | 3.37 |
| Connecticut Valley Dinghy Championship Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.2 | 3.25 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.0 | 3.74 |
| 85th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.1 | 3.86 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 7 | 11.3 | 2.95 |
| New York Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.2 | 3.33 |
| MAISA Match Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.3 | 3.59 |
| Kings Point Open Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.6 | 2.39 |
| The John Quinn Regatta | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.3 | 2.50 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.5 | 2.62 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.6 | 2.23 |
| The Grant | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.4 | 3.31 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.9 | 3.38 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.5 | 2.04 |
| America Trophy - MAISA Open Dinghy Championships | Skipper | A | 13 | 12.2 | 2.81 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.2 | 2.81 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.5 | 2.79 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.8 | 2.58 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.9 | 3.03 |
| John Quinn | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.8 | 3.13 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.6 | 3.22 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.5 | 2.83 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.5 | 2.83 |
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 13 | 12.8 | 2.48 |
| Princeton Fall Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.6 | 2.65 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.9 | 2.59 |
| NYM Fall Open | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.9 | 2.23 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 5.8 | 2.71 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.0 | 2.67 |
| The John Quinn | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.4 | 3.32 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
| OCC Spring Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.8 | 3.12 |
| Leroy Grant | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.9 | 2.28 |
| Army Spring Open | Skipper | A | 2 | 1.5 | 3.17 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.0 | 2.28 |
| Coho Memorial | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.8 | 3.07 |
| Central Late Fall | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.3 | 2.67 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
