| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 14–1 |
| 2 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 12–3 |
| 3 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 8–7 |
| 4 |  |
Christopher Newport University | Captains | 6–9 |
| 5 |  |
Washington College | Shoremen | 3–12 |
| 6 |  |
Princeton University | Tigers | 2–13 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 16,901 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 45 matches (51%) with a log-loss of 0.923 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.91 ± 0.31: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 0% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgetown University | 5.24 | 9.67 | 14–1 | 4.3 | +4.43 | 24.8 | <1% |
| 2 | U. S. Naval Academy | 6.70 | 8.03 | 12–3 | 9.5 | +1.33 | 2.2 | 9% |
| 4 | Christopher Newport University | 5.53 | 5.60 | 6–9 | 5.8 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 6 | Princeton University | 5.20 | 3.95 | 2–13 | 4.8 | −1.25 | 2.3 | 98% |
| 5 | Washington College | 5.65 | 4.39 | 3–12 | 6.3 | −1.26 | 2.9 | 99% |
| 3 | Cornell University | 8.91 | 5.88 | 8–7 | 14.3 | −3.02 | 17.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Fox | Georgetown University | 0.88 | 5.30 | 14–1 | 4.3 | +4.43 | 24.8 | <1% |
| Joe Coyne | Georgetown University | 2.01 | 6.19 | 5–1 | 0.9 | +4.19 | 12.7 | <1% |
| Nathaniel Winters | Georgetown University | 1.30 | 4.30 | 9–0 | 3.5 | ≥+3.00 | 11.4 | <1% |
| Tanner Kelly | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.28 | 3.61 | 12–3 | 9.5 | +1.33 | 2.2 | 9% |
| Connor Mraz | Princeton University | 2.27 | 1.01 | 2–13 | 4.8 | −1.25 | 2.3 | 98% |
| Bryan Lawrence | Princeton University | 1.18 | -0.07 | 2–13 | 4.8 | −1.25 | 2.3 | 98% |
| Alex Heim | Washington College | 1.33 | 0.07 | 3–12 | 6.3 | −1.26 | 2.9 | 99% |
| Lilly Myers | Cornell University | 2.69 | -0.33 | 8–7 | 14.3 | −3.02 | 17.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Midshipmen | Red | Captains | Shoremen | Tigers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 2–3 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 1–4 | L | L | W | ✕ | L | L |
| Washington College Shoremen | 1–4 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | L |
| Princeton University Tigers | 2–3 | L | L | L | W | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Midshipmen | Red | Captains | Shoremen | Tigers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 5–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Washington College Shoremen | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Princeton University Tigers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Midshipmen | Red | Captains | Shoremen | Tigers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 3–2 | L | W | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 3–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Washington College Shoremen | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Princeton University Tigers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Big Red | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Shoremen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Captains | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Tigers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Tigers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Midshipmen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-3-6 |
| 12 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Captains | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Captains | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Big Red | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Captains | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 2-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Captains | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Captains | 1-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Shoremen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-5-6 DNF,DNF |
| 26 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Big Red | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Captains | 2-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 1-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Captains | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 1-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Captains | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Big Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-5 |
| 40 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Captains | 2-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Captains | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | James Fox '25 Joe Coyne '23 John Patrick Panarella '22 Nathaniel Winters '22 |
Marguerite Montagner '25 Rebekah Morrison '23 Louisa Buckingham '24 Elizabeth Fortunato '23 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Louis Margay '22 Robert Ziman '25 Tanner Kelly '25 |
Faith Southwick '23 Elizabeth Linsdell '23 Hunter Anderson '24 |
|
Cornell University | Big Red | Bridget Green '25 Brooke Shachoy '22 Lilly Myers '23 |
Jana Laurendeau '23 Amelia Neumann '25 Lilly Bjerke '25 |
|
Christopher Newport University | Captains | Brian Fox '23 David Grace '23 Luke Hayes '22 |
Alexandria Brooks '22 Kiara Templeton '24 Ellie Mcfall '24 Julia Burns '22 |
|
Washington College | Shoremen | Alex Heim '24 Max Shapiro '25 Stewart Gurnell '23 |
Benjamin Francis '25 Jonathan Kelly '23 Andrew Tran '23 |
|
Princeton University | Tigers | Bryan Lawrence '24 Connor Mraz '23 Jasper Waldman '25 |
Myles Mcknight '23 Nelson Chow '23 Calif Chen '23 Isabella Impalli '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
