Georgetown University '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.29 (fleet 3.12) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–1 (96%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 18–0 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 5–1 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 23–1 against 18.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.44 | 5.44 | 18–0 | 17.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 2022-03-19 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.01 | 6.19 | 5–1 | 0.9 | +4.19 | 12.7 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Chesapeake Invitational | Skipper | C | 5 | 6.8 | -1.53 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| Robert P. Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.2 | 1.87 |
| GW Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.2 | 0.90 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Oyster Bowl - Pearl | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 1.91 |
| Chesapeake Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.5 | 3.31 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
