Washington College Team Race

HostWashington College
Date03/18/2023
TypeRegional
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	21–0
2	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	14–7
3	Princeton University	Tigers	14–7
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	13–8
5	Washington College	Shoremen	12–9
6	University of Virginia	Wahoos	6–15
7	SUNY Stony Brook	Seawolves	3–18
8	University of Delaware	Blue Hens	1–20

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 19,847 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 73 of 84 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.274 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.13 ± 0.21: a typical event, more orderly than 57% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	1	8.40 school +0.25	Joe Coyne / Rebekah Morrison 2.44 18–0 Daniel Hughes / Elizabeth Fortunato 18–0 Enzo Menditto / Margot Gordon 15–0 Benjamin Smith / Adelia Derose 9–0 Enzo Menditto / Vaughn Slatoff 3–0	96%	21–0 (100%)	+0.8
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3	5.91 school +0.35	Ava Farley / Linnea Forsberg 2.04 Isabella Fadullon / Hunter Anderson Robert Ziman / Margo Cicero 1.97	65%	14–7 (67%)	+0.3
3	Princeton University Tigers	4	5.47 school −0.21	Connor Mraz / Kate Feiner 2.64 Asher Green / Virginia Cobbs 1.95 Bryan Lawrence / Isabel Kim 1.10 8–7 William Roberts / Isabel Kim 0.58 6–0	59%	14–7 (67%)	+1.5
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2	6.17 school +0.24	Jonathan Weed / Elizabeth Crane 2.20 Max Kleha / Lillian Newman 1.82 Henry Haddon / Maya Bricahcek	69%	13–8 (62%)	−1.5
5	Washington College Shoremen	5	5.23 school −0.21, home +0.41	Jonathan Kelly / Andrew Tran 1.02 Joseph Bonacci / Emma Macturk 1.43 Stewart Gurnell / Rachel Morgen 2.49	54%	12–9 (57%)	+0.7
6	University of Virginia Wahoos	6	4.23	Andrew Montague / Lila Gibson Maxwell Penders / Laura Rhodes Benjamin Garretson / Emma Sullivan	38%	6–15 (29%)	−2.1
7	SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves	7	1.96 school −0.29	Brendan Strein / Margaret Myers-Aldous Jessica Schaefer / Morgan Bittmann Gerrit Bittmann / Rose Von Eckartsberg 0.63	15%	3–18 (14%)	−0.2
8	University of Delaware Blue Hens	8	0.25 school −0.24	Pearce Bragaw / Ian Kaplan 0.46 David Berson / John Fulkerson 0.61 Elise Singletary / Tyler Meyer	3%	1–20 (5%)	+0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Georgetown University	8.40	11.40	21–0	20.2	≥+3.00	1.1	45%
8	University of Delaware	0.25	0.91	1–20	0.6	+0.65	0.2	46%
3	Princeton University	5.47	6.00	14–7	12.5	+0.53	0.6	28%
5	Washington College	5.23	5.47	12–9	11.3	+0.24	0.1	44%
2	U. S. Naval Academy	5.91	6.03	14–7	13.7	+0.12	0.0	55%
7	SUNY Stony Brook	1.96	1.79	3–18	3.2	−0.17	0.0	77%
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	6.17	5.63	13–8	14.5	−0.55	0.6	89%
6	University of Virginia	4.23	3.10	6–15	8.1	−1.13	1.6	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
William Roberts	Princeton University	0.58	3.58	6–0	5.9	≥+3.00	0.2	87%
Joe Coyne	Georgetown University	2.44	5.44	18–0	17.2	≥+3.00	1.1	46%
Pearce Bragaw	University of Delaware	0.46	1.11	1–20	0.6	+0.65	0.2	46%
Elise Singletary	University of Delaware	-0.88	-0.23	1–20	0.6	+0.65	0.2	46%
Connor Mraz	Princeton University	2.64	3.18	14–7	12.5	+0.53	0.6	28%
Asher Green	Princeton University	1.95	2.48	14–7	12.5	+0.53	0.6	28%
Bryan Lawrence	Princeton University	1.10	1.61	8–7	6.6	+0.50	0.5	30%
Jonathan Kelly	Washington College	1.02	1.26	12–9	11.3	+0.24	0.1	44%
Joseph Bonacci	Washington College	1.43	1.67	12–9	11.3	+0.24	0.1	44%
Ava Farley	U. S. Naval Academy	2.04	2.16	14–7	13.7	+0.12	0.0	55%
Brendan Strein	SUNY Stony Brook	0.66	0.49	3–18	3.2	−0.17	0.0	77%
Jessica Schaefer	SUNY Stony Brook	0.52	0.34	3–18	3.2	−0.17	0.0	77%
Gerrit Bittmann	SUNY Stony Brook	0.63	0.46	3–18	3.2	−0.17	0.0	77%
Max Kleha	St. Mary's College of Maryland	1.82	1.28	13–8	14.5	−0.55	0.6	89%
Andrew Montague	University of Virginia	1.38	0.24	6–15	8.1	−1.13	1.6	97%
Maxwell Penders	University of Virginia	0.90	-0.23	6–15	8.1	−1.13	1.6	97%
Benjamin Garretson	University of Virginia	1.35	0.21	6–15	8.1	−1.13	1.6	97%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Princeton University	SUNY Stony Brook	97%
1	2	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	46%	upset
1	3	Georgetown University	University of Virginia	99%
1	4	Washington College	University of Delaware	99%
1	5	Princeton University	U. S. Naval Academy	42%	upset
1	6	Georgetown University	SUNY Stony Brook	100%
1	7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Washington College	71%
1	8	University of Virginia	University of Delaware	98%
1	9	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	93%
1	10	Princeton University	Washington College	59%
1	11	University of Virginia	SUNY Stony Brook	90%
1	12	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Delaware	100%
1	13	Georgetown University	Washington College	93%
1	14	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Virginia	86%
1	15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Princeton University	63%
1	16	SUNY Stony Brook	University of Delaware	84%
1	17	University of Virginia	Washington College	25%	upset
1	18	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	92%
1	19	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Stony Brook	98%
1	20	Princeton University	University of Delaware	99%
1	21	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Virginia	88%
1	22	Washington College	SUNY Stony Brook	97%
1	23	Georgetown University	Princeton University	95%
1	24	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Delaware	100%
1	25	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Stony Brook	99%
1	26	Princeton University	University of Virginia	80%
1	27	U. S. Naval Academy	Washington College	66%
1	28	Georgetown University	University of Delaware	100%
2	29	Princeton University	SUNY Stony Brook	96%
2	30	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	56%
2	31	Georgetown University	University of Virginia	99%
2	32	Washington College	University of Delaware	99%
2	33	U. S. Naval Academy	Princeton University	58%
2	34	Georgetown University	SUNY Stony Brook	100%
2	35	Washington College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	28%	upset
2	36	University of Virginia	University of Delaware	98%
2	37	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	94%
2	38	Princeton University	Washington College	59%
2	39	University of Virginia	SUNY Stony Brook	91%
2	40	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Delaware	100%
2	41	Georgetown University	Washington College	94%
2	42	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Virginia	83%
2	43	Princeton University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	36%	upset
2	44	SUNY Stony Brook	University of Delaware	85%
2	45	Washington College	University of Virginia	71%
2	46	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	92%
2	47	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Stony Brook	98%
2	48	Princeton University	University of Delaware	99%
2	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Virginia	87%
2	50	Washington College	SUNY Stony Brook	96%
2	51	Georgetown University	Princeton University	96%
2	52	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Delaware	100%
2	53	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Stony Brook	98%
2	54	Princeton University	University of Virginia	78%
2	55	U. S. Naval Academy	Washington College	66%
2	56	Georgetown University	University of Delaware	100%
3	57	Princeton University	SUNY Stony Brook	96%
3	58	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	57%
3	59	Georgetown University	University of Virginia	99%
3	60	Washington College	University of Delaware	99%
3	61	U. S. Naval Academy	Princeton University	57%
3	62	Georgetown University	SUNY Stony Brook	100%
3	63	Washington College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	27%	upset
3	64	University of Virginia	University of Delaware	98%
3	65	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	94%
3	66	Washington College	Princeton University	40%	upset
3	67	SUNY Stony Brook	University of Virginia	9%	upset
3	68	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Delaware	100%
3	69	Georgetown University	Washington College	94%
3	70	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Virginia	82%
3	71	Princeton University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	35%	upset
3	72	University of Delaware	SUNY Stony Brook	15%	upset
3	73	Washington College	University of Virginia	70%
3	74	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	92%
3	75	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Stony Brook	98%
3	76	Princeton University	University of Delaware	99%
3	77	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Virginia	86%
3	78	Washington College	SUNY Stony Brook	96%
3	79	Georgetown University	Princeton University	96%
3	80	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Delaware	100%
3	81	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Stony Brook	98%
3	82	Princeton University	University of Virginia	77%
3	83	Washington College	U. S. Naval Academy	34%	upset
3	84	Georgetown University	University of Delaware	100%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Tigers	Seahawks	Shoremen	Wahoos	Seawolves	Hens
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Princeton University Tigers	5–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Washington College Shoremen	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Delaware Blue Hens	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Tigers	Seahawks	Shoremen	Wahoos	Seawolves	Hens
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Princeton University Tigers	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–3	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Washington College Shoremen	4–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Delaware Blue Hens	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Tigers	Seahawks	Shoremen	Wahoos	Seawolves	Hens
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–3	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W
Princeton University Tigers	4–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–3	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Washington College Shoremen	6–1	L	W	W	W	✕	W	W	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L
University of Delaware Blue Hens	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Tigers	1-3-6	def.	Seawolves	2-4-5
2	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
3	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
4	Shoremen	1-2-3	def.	Blue Hens	4-5-6
5	Tigers	2-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-4-6
6	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
7	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
8	Wahoos	1-3-4	def.	Blue Hens	2-5-6
9	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
10	Tigers	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
11	Wahoos	1-4-5	def.	Seawolves	2-3-6
12	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Blue Hens	4-5-6
13	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Shoremen	1-5-6
14	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
15	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Tigers	2-5-6
16	Seawolves	1-3-4	def.	Blue Hens	2-5-6
17	Wahoos	1-4-5	def.	Shoremen	2-3-6
18	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
19	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
20	Tigers	1-2-4	def.	Blue Hens	3-5-6 DNF
21	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
22	Shoremen	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
23	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Tigers	1-4-6
24	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Blue Hens	4-5-6 DNS,DNS
25	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
26	Tigers	1-3-4	def.	Wahoos	2-5-6
27	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Shoremen	2-4-5
28	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Blue Hens	4-5-6
29	Tigers	1-2-5	def.	Seawolves	3-4-6
30	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
31	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
32	Shoremen	1-2-3	def.	Blue Hens	4-5-6 DNS
33	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Tigers	2-4-5
34	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
35	Shoremen	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
36	Wahoos	1-3-4	def.	Blue Hens	2-5-6 DNS
37	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
38	Tigers	1-2-6	def.	Shoremen	3-4-5
39	Wahoos	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
40	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Blue Hens	1-5-6 DNS,DNS
41	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Shoremen	2-5-6
42	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Wahoos	2-4-6
43	Tigers	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
44	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Blue Hens	3-4-6 DNS
45	Shoremen	1-3-5	def.	Wahoos	2-4-6
46	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
47	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
48	Tigers	1-2-3	def.	Blue Hens	4-5-6 DNS
49	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
50	Shoremen	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
51	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Tigers	3-5-6
52	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Blue Hens	4-5-6 DNS
53	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
54	Tigers	1-2-6	def.	Wahoos	3-4-5
55	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Shoremen	2-3-6
56	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Blue Hens	4-5-6 DNS
57	Tigers	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
58	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
59	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
60	Shoremen	1-2-4	def.	Blue Hens	3-5-6
61	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Tigers	1-4-6
62	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
63	Shoremen	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
64	Wahoos	1-3-4	def.	Blue Hens	2-5-6
65	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
66	Shoremen	2-3-4	def.	Tigers	1-5-6
67	Seawolves	2-3-5	def.	Wahoos	1-4-6
68	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Blue Hens	4-5-6
69	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
70	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Wahoos	1-4-6
71	Tigers	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
72	Blue Hens	1-3-6 DNS	def.	Seawolves	2-4-5
73	Shoremen	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6 DNF
74	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
75	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
76	Tigers	1-2-4	def.	Blue Hens	3-5-6
77	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
78	Shoremen	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6 DNS
79	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Tigers	1-5-6
80	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Blue Hens	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
81	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
82	Tigers	1-3-6	def.	Wahoos	2-4-5
83	Shoremen	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
84	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Blue Hens	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Benjamin Smith '26 Daniel Hughes '25 Enzo Menditto '26 Joe Coyne '23	Adelia Derose '26 Elizabeth Fortunato '23 Margot Gordon '26 Vaughn Slatoff '26 Rebekah Morrison '23
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Ava Farley '26 Isabella Fadullon '25 Robert Ziman '25	Linnea Forsberg '25 Hunter Anderson '24 Margo Cicero '26
Princeton University	Tigers	Asher Green '24 Bryan Lawrence '24 Connor Mraz '23 William Roberts '26	Virginia Cobbs '25 Isabel Kim '24 Kate Feiner '26
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Henry Haddon '25 Jonathan Weed '26 Max Kleha '25	Maya Bricahcek '26 Elizabeth Crane '26 Lillian Newman '25
Washington College	Shoremen	Jonathan Kelly '23 Joseph Bonacci '25 Stewart Gurnell '23	Andrew Tran '23 Emma Macturk '23 Rachel Morgen '26
University of Virginia	Wahoos	Andrew Montague '25 Benjamin Garretson '24 Maxwell Penders '25	Lila Gibson '26 Emma Sullivan '23 Laura Rhodes '24
SUNY Stony Brook	Seawolves	Brendan Strein '23 Gerrit Bittmann '24 Jessica Schaefer '23	Margaret Myers-Aldous '25 Rose Von Eckartsberg '25 Morgan Bittmann '24
University of Delaware	Blue Hens	David Berson '26 Elise Singletary '26 Pearce Bragaw '23	John Fulkerson '26 Tyler Meyer '24 Ian Kaplan '25

Conditions — 03/18/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 44% · Pressure 1009.5 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 50°F ↓ 42°F

Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.2 kn

avg · max 10.5 kn

Gusts to 23.1 kn

From WNW (284°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover55% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1009.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Washington College — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Washington College in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled fleet-race days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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