Princeton University '24
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 88.64 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.113 rating points from 32 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.79 (fleet 2.52) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–45 (34%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 2–20 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 21–25 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (68 matches) the record is 23–45 against 25.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-16 | Washington College Open Team Race | skipper | 1.98 | -1.02 | 0–7 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 4.3 | >99% |
| 2024-03-02 | Navy Team Race Invite | skipper | 1.88 | 1.40 | 2–13 | 2.9 | −0.48 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2023-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.95 | 2.48 | 14–7 | 12.5 | +0.53 | 0.6 | 28% |
| 2023-03-11 | Wood Trophy Team Race | skipper | 1.91 | 1.98 | 2–10 | 1.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2023-03-04 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 1.70 | 1.36 | 5–8 | 5.6 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Tiger 2v2 Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 83% | — |
| Princeton Spring Open | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.8 | 2.78 |
| Navy Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Grant Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.4 | 2.22 |
| America Trophy - Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.8 | 2.93 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| WAR MEMORIAL | Skipper | B | 8 | 13.2 | 1.75 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.5 | 2.19 |
| New York Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.6 | 2.65 |
| KP Open Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.3 | — |
| David Lee Arnoff | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 1.54 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invitational | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.2 | 2.19 |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.5 | 2.79 |
| The Grant | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.8 | 2.87 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.8 | 2.71 |
| Delaware River Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 1.2 | 3.86 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.7 | 2.72 |
| 85th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 14.5 | 2.13 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.9 | 2.04 |
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 4 | 13.0 | 1.97 |
| Princeton Fall Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 1.7 | 2.89 |
| New York Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.7 | 1.90 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.3 | 2.60 |
| Kings Point Open Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 15.3 | — |
| The John Quinn Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.8 | 2.05 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.5 | -1.15 |
| The Grant | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.4 | 2.16 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.2 | 2.17 |
| America Trophy - MAISA Open Dinghy Championships | Skipper | B | 9 | 13.7 | 1.67 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.2 | 1.82 |
| McCurdy Memorial | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.0 | — |
| John Quinn | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.0 | 2.38 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Asher Green |  Corona del Mar High School |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
