| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 12–3 |
| 2 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 11–4 |
| 3 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 11–4 |
| 4 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 7–8 |
| 5 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 2–13 |
| 6 |  |
Princeton University | Tigers | 0–15 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 22,017 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 31 of 45 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.674 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.67 ± 0.30: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 7% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 5.63 | 8.34 | 12–3 | 5.0 | +2.71 | 12.8 | <1% |
| 2 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 6.72 | 7.61 | 11–4 | 8.7 | +0.88 | 1.4 | 14% |
| 4 | Cornell University | 6.33 | 6.14 | 7–8 | 7.6 | −0.19 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 6 | Princeton University | 4.99 | 4.51 | 2–13 | 2.9 | −0.48 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 3 | U. S. Naval Academy | 8.56 | 7.17 | 11–4 | 13.7 | −1.39 | 3.1 | 99% |
| 5 | Fordham University | 6.21 | 4.13 | 2–13 | 7.1 | −2.09 | 7.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 1.72 | 4.42 | 12–3 | 5.0 | +2.71 | 12.8 | <1% |
| Max Kleha | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 1.88 | 2.76 | 11–4 | 8.7 | +0.88 | 1.4 | 14% |
| Nathan Jensen | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.07 | 2.95 | 11–4 | 8.7 | +0.88 | 1.4 | 14% |
| Ossian Kamal | Princeton University | 1.86 | 1.39 | 2–13 | 2.9 | −0.48 | 0.3 | 83% |
| Bryan Lawrence | Princeton University | 1.11 | 0.63 | 2–13 | 2.9 | −0.48 | 0.3 | 83% |
| Asher Green | Princeton University | 1.88 | 1.40 | 2–13 | 2.9 | −0.48 | 0.3 | 83% |
| Trenton Shaw | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.69 | 1.29 | 11–4 | 13.7 | −1.39 | 3.1 | 99% |
| Lucas Thress | Fordham University | 1.76 | -0.32 | 2–13 | 7.1 | −2.09 | 7.0 | >99% |
| Aidan Lane | Cornell University | 1.78 | -1.22 | 0–3 | 1.8 | ≤−3.00 | 3.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Statesmen | Seahawks | Midshipmen | Red | Rams | Tigers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 4–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–1 | W | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Princeton University Tigers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Statesmen | Seahawks | Midshipmen | Red | Rams | Tigers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 4–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 3–2 | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 3–2 | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 1–4 | W | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Princeton University Tigers | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Statesmen | Seahawks | Midshipmen | Red | Rams | Tigers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 4–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 4–1 | W | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Princeton University Tigers | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Statesmen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-3-6 |
| 4 | |
Seahawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-6 |
| 5 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Big Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Big Red | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Red | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Statesmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Statesmen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-3-6 |
| 18 | |
Big Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Tigers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Statesmen | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Midshipmen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-3-6 |
| 27 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Statesmen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Big Red | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 2-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Statesmen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-3-6 |
| 35 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Tigers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-3-6 |
| 38 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 44 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26 Owen Harrod '26 Thomas Walker '24 |
Valyn Mogensen '26 Laura Therien '26 Ella Donaldson '27 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Henry Haddon '25 Jonathan Weed '26 Max Kleha '25 Nathan Jensen '27 |
Emily Shioutakon '26 Mary Govan '27 Brooke Bertrand '25 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Hugh Carty '27 Teddy Martin '27 Trenton Shaw '24 |
Eleanor Niehoff '26 Mary Dwyer '27 Fiona Cullen '27 |
|
Cornell University | Big Red | Aidan Lane '24 J.J. Smith '24 Kit Harned '27 Pilar Cundey '27 |
Maeve Katics '26 Boris Bialer '26 Kate Moran '27 Wynne Williams '27 |
|
Fordham University | Rams | Elizabeth Cutler '24 Lizzie Cochran '27 Lucas Thress '26 |
Ashley Abboud '26 Rebecca Keller '25 Caroline Newton '27 |
|
Princeton University | Tigers | Asher Green '24 Bryan Lawrence '24 Ossian Kamal '26 |
Chai Mauliola '24 Cora Lecates '26 Kate Feiner '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
