Hobart and William Smith Colleges '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.21 (fleet 2.94) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.08 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 25–12 (68%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 15–7 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 10–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (37 matches) the record is 25–12 against 15.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+9.1). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 15 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-16 | Washington College Open Team Race | skipper | 2.54 | 1.88 | 3–4 | 3.7 | −0.66 | 0.3 | 89% |
| 2024-03-02 | Navy Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.11 | 4.82 | 12–3 | 5.0 | +2.71 | 12.8 | <1% |
| 2022-03-19 | Kings Point Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.12 | 3.13 | 10–5 | 7.2 | +1.01 | 2.0 | 8% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Navy Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.3 | 3.20 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| KP Open Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.2 | -0.42 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Open Invite | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.0 | 3.48 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| 2023 Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.1 | 1.79 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Seneca Showdown | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.2 | 3.00 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.2 | 0.48 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Kings Point Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Big Red Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.8 | 3.02 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Seneca Skirmish | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.6 | 2.48 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Thomas Walker |  Brookline High |
'19 |
| ISSA | Thomas Walker |  Dartmouth High School |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
