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Seneca Showdown

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 32 32
2 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 41 41
3 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 48 48
4 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 54 54
5 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 6 62 62
6 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5 70 70
7 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 8 78 78
8 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 7 80 80
9 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 89 89
10 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 90 90
11 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 98 98
12 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 100 100
13 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 102 102
14 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 7 110 110
15 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 6 146 146
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 1 4 4 3 3 1 1 9 4 2 32 Bridget Green '25
Lucija Ruzevic '24
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 2 1 9 6 2 2 4 2 6 7 41 Heather Kerns '24
Francis Martocci '24
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 5 7 1 11 1 4 3 1 2 13 48 Lauren Ehnot '24
Sophia Fogarty '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 3 2 2 1 6 11 9 4 8 8 54 Pete Mcgriff '24
Elijah Goldman '26
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 6 7 8 5 4 11 5 2 12 3 5 62 Thomas Walker '24
John Deely '26
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5 11 3 7 9 4 3 10 5 14 4 70 Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26
Zachary Anson '24
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 8 6 6 8 5 7 13 7 3 9 14 78 Aidan Lane '24
Peter Jordan '23
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 7 4 5 3 2 9 7 14 14 13 9 80 Owen Harrod '26
Juliana Victor '26
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 10 9 6 8 5 6 12 10 12 11 89 Collin Porter '23
Frances Depke '25
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 13 12 12 7 10 9 5 11 5 6 90 Sophia Peck '26
Clara Hewson '24
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 8 10 10 14 8 10 13 6 7 12 98 Elizabeth Starck '25
Anna Mcbride '24
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 15 13 14 10 13 12 11 8 1 3 100 Jennifer Permenter '25
Isabel Dhar '23
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 12 11 15 12 12 15 6 7 11 1 102 Maya Conway '26
Rocco Cappetta '24
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 7 9 14 11 13 14 8 8 13 10 10 110 Ethan Stoffman '24
Lilly Bjerke '25
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 6 14 15 13 15 15 14 15 15 15 15 146 Ava Grace Sannino '26
Susie Foster '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 11111111111
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 23333333333
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 35555555555
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 47777777777
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 59999999999
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 611111111111111111111
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 713131313131313131313
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 815151515151515151515
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 12222222222
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 24444444444
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 36666666666
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 48888888888
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 510101010101010101010
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 612121212121212121212
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 714141414141414141414

Conditions — 10/22/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1020.6 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From S (170°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1020.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 15 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Hobart & William: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.00
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 14 labelled days at Hobart & William, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →