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Seneca Skirmish

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 11 11
2 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 13 13
3 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 17 17
4 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 23 23
5 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons 3 32 32
6 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 33 33
7 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 35 35
8 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 6 37 37
9 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons 2 38 38
10 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4 50 50
11 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 53 53
12 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons 1 56 56
13 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 5 60 60
14 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 7 67 67
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 2 3 3 2 1 11 Will Murray '24
Aidan Morgan '21
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 1 2 4 3 3 13 Richard Gleason '24
Katherine Klempen '22
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 3 5 1 4 4 17 John Mckenna '24
Patrick York '24
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 6 1 5 5 6 23 Blake Stackpoole '22
Tory Mileti '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons 3 7 6 7 7 5 32 Ella Withington '22
Cailin Gensler '21
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 5 4 13 9 2 33 Thomas Walker '24
Tess Weber '23
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 10 8 9 1 7 35 Lars Osell '24
Marshall Cho '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 6 9 9 2 6 11 37 Patrick Modin '23
Christopher Geraci '24
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons 2 4 7 10 8 9 38 Camille Mcgriff '22
Sarah Smith '22
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4 13 10 6 11 10 50 Christopher Adkins '23
Alyssa Davis '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 12 12 11 10 8 53 Aidan Brown '24
Jordan Rendzio '24
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons 1 11 11 8 13 13 56 Caroline Martocci '22
Anna Mcbride '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 5 8 14 12 14 12 60 Connor Murphy '23
Ruby Redmond '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 7 14 13 14 12 14 67 Aiden Keister '24
Kristy Nilsson '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Herons 111111
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Herons 222222
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Herons 333333
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 144444
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 255555
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 366666
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 477777
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 188888
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 299999
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 31010101010
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 41111111111
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 51212121212
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 61313131313
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 71414141414

Conditions — 04/24/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 38%  ·  Pressure 1013.3 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From WSW (237°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover60% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity38% Pressure1013.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn · W 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hobart & William: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.00
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.61 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 14 labelled days at Hobart & William, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →