Hobart and William Smith Colleges '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.44 (fleet 3.31) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.05 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–11 (59%) as crew 2–2 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 6–6 | 2–2 |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 10–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (31 matches) the record is 18–13 against 11.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.6). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-11 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.51 | 3.90 | 6–6 | 2.8 | +1.39 | 3.3 | 3% |
| 2023-03-04 | Georgetown Team Race | crew | 2.77 | 3.63 | 2–2 | 1.3 | +0.85 | 0.4 | 41% |
| 2022-03-19 | Kings Point Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.38 | 3.39 | 10–5 | 7.2 | +1.01 | 2.0 | 8% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| Georgetown Team Race | Crew | TR | 4 | 75% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Top 9 Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.7 | 1.37 |
| Kings Point Open Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.7 | 1.24 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.4 | 1.14 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.7 | 1.09 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Kings Point Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Top 9 MAISA Coed Regatta | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.4 | 2.27 |
| Oyster Bowl - Pearl | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.4 | 3.73 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.6 | 3.28 |
| Cayuga Lake Invite | Skipper | C | 14 | 6.9 | 2.13 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Seneca Skirmish | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.6 | 4.23 |
| 2021 Gill College Sailing Coed Nationals | Skipper | B | 4 | 14.5 | 2.05 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
