Kings Point Team Race Invite

HostKings Point
Date03/19/2022
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	13–2
2	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	10–5
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	10–5
4	Fordham University	Rams	5–10
5	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	4–11
6	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	3–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,901 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 34 of 45 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.535 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.06 ± 0.29: a typical event, more orderly than 36% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1	8.26 school +0.39	Caden Scheiblauer / Julia Christie 2.64 Trenton Shaw / Isabella Fadullon 2.58 Cooper Walshe / Catherine Aitken 2.55 10–2 Jack Carminati / Catherine Aitken 2.44 3–0	79%	13–2 (87%)	+1.2
2	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	2	7.87 school +0.23	Amanda Majernik / Amelia Popp 2.76 Madeleine Rice / Caroline Dannacher 2.14 Torrey Chisari / Ella Marsden 2.56 8–1 Sofia Segalla / Ella Marsden 2.87 2–4	74%	10–5 (67%)	−1.0
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4	6.86 school +0.05	Richard Gleason / Francis Martocci Thomas Walker / Rachel Duggan Collin Porter / Hannah Davis	48%	10–5 (67%)	+2.8
4	Fordham University Rams	3	7.11 school +0.17	Peter Lobaugh / Margot Dugan 2.30 Patrick Dolan / Roberto Lugones 2.50 Beckett Kumler / Griffin Sisk 2.05	55%	5–10 (33%)	−3.2
5	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	6	5.55 school −0.27	Nick Chisari / Mark Modzelewski 2.79 Ben Hosford / Shawn Tirone 1.36 Finn Rauch / Eileen Mehrkens 1–8 Finn Rauch / John Donnelly 3–3	19%	4–11 (27%)	+1.1
6	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	5	5.86 school −0.24, home +0.32	John Mckenna / Maeve Jackson 2.48 Lars Osell / Rachel Beisswenger Patrick Mccarron / Ryleigh Benson	26%	3–12 (20%)	−0.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	6.86	7.86	10–5	7.2	+1.01	2.0	8%
1	U. S. Naval Academy	8.26	8.90	13–2	11.8	+0.63	0.5	34%
5	SUNY Maritime College	5.55	6.03	4–11	2.9	+0.48	0.4	31%
2	University of Pennsylvania	7.87	7.50	10–5	11.0	−0.38	0.3	83%
6	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	5.86	5.45	3–12	3.9	−0.40	0.3	82%
4	Fordham University	7.11	5.99	5–10	8.2	−1.12	2.5	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Jack Carminati	U. S. Naval Academy	2.44	5.44	3–0	1.6	≥+3.00	2.6	14%
Richard Gleason	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.38	3.39	10–5	7.2	+1.01	2.0	8%
Torrey Chisari	University of Pennsylvania	2.56	3.24	8–1	7.3	+0.69	0.3	45%
Trenton Shaw	U. S. Naval Academy	2.58	3.21	13–2	11.8	+0.63	0.5	34%
Ben Hosford	SUNY Maritime College	1.36	1.85	4–11	2.9	+0.48	0.4	31%
Cooper Walshe	U. S. Naval Academy	2.55	2.38	10–2	10.3	−0.17	0.0	76%
Amanda Majernik	University of Pennsylvania	2.76	2.38	10–5	11.0	−0.38	0.3	83%
Madeleine Rice	University of Pennsylvania	2.14	1.76	10–5	11.0	−0.38	0.3	83%
John Mckenna	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	2.48	2.08	3–12	3.9	−0.40	0.3	82%
Lars Osell	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	1.81	1.41	3–12	3.9	−0.40	0.3	82%
Patrick Mccarron	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	0.99	0.59	3–12	3.9	−0.40	0.3	82%
Beckett Kumler	Fordham University	2.05	0.93	5–10	8.2	−1.12	2.5	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	73%
1	2	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	82%
1	3	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	51%
1	4	Fordham University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	82%
1	5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	19%	upset
1	6	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	94%
1	7	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	89%
1	8	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	76%
1	9	SUNY Maritime College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	24%	upset
1	10	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	66%
1	11	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	82%
1	12	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	SUNY Maritime College	56%
1	13	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	43%	upset
1	14	SUNY Maritime College	University of Pennsylvania	10%	upset
1	15	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	92%
2	16	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	73%
2	17	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	82%
2	18	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	52%
2	19	Fordham University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	77%
2	20	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	76%
2	21	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	94%
2	22	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	86%
2	23	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	77%
2	24	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	79%
2	25	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	65%
2	26	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	80%
2	27	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	40%	upset
2	28	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	46%	upset
2	29	University of Pennsylvania	SUNY Maritime College	90%
2	30	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	91%
3	31	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	73%
3	32	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	82%
3	33	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	53%
3	34	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Fordham University	24%	upset
3	35	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	74%
3	36	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	94%
3	37	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	85%
3	38	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	77%
3	39	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	81%
3	40	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	65%
3	41	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	21%	upset
3	42	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	38%	upset
3	43	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	48%	upset
3	44	University of Pennsylvania	SUNY Maritime College	90%
3	45	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	U. S. Naval Academy	9%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Quakers	Statesmen	Rams	Privateers	Mariners
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	2–3	L	✕	L	W	L	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–2	L	W	✕	W	L	W
Fordham University Rams	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	2–3	L	W	W	L	✕	L
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	1–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Quakers	Statesmen	Rams	Privateers	Mariners
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Quakers	Statesmen	Rams	Privateers	Mariners
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–2	✕	W	L	W	W	L
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4–1	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	1–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	2–3	W	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
2	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
3	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
4	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
5	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
6	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
7	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
8	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
9	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
10	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
11	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
12	Mariners	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
13	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
14	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
15	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
16	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
17	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
18	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
19	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
20	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
21	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
22	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
23	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
24	Statesmen	2-3-5	def.	Privateers	1-4-6
25	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
26	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
27	Privateers	1-3-4	def.	Mariners	2-5-6
28	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
29	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
30	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
31	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
32	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Privateers	2-4-6
33	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Quakers	2-4-5
34	Mariners	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
35	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
36	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
37	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
38	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
39	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
40	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
41	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
42	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
43	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
44	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
45	Mariners	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Caden Scheiblauer '23 Cooper Walshe '25 Jack Carminati '22 Trenton Shaw '24	Julia Christie '24 Catherine Aitken '24 Isabella Fadullon '25
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Amanda Majernik '22 Madeleine Rice '24 Sofia Segalla '25 Torrey Chisari '24	Amelia Popp '25 Caroline Dannacher '25 Ella Marsden '24
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Collin Porter '23 Richard Gleason '24 Thomas Walker '24	Hannah Davis '24 Francis Martocci '24 Rachel Duggan '25
Fordham University	Rams	Beckett Kumler '24 Patrick Dolan '25 Peter Lobaugh '24	Griffin Sisk '23 Roberto Lugones '24 Margot Dugan '24
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Ben Hosford '25 Finn Rauch '23 Nick Chisari '23	Shawn Tirone '25 John Donnelly '25 Eileen Mehrkens '25 Mark Modzelewski '23
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	John Mckenna '24 Lars Osell '24 Patrick Mccarron '25	Maeve Jackson '25 Rachel Beisswenger '22 Ryleigh Benson '25

Conditions — 03/19/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 85% · Pressure 1009.0 hPa

Temperature

59°F

↑ 63°F ↓ 53°F

Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.6 kn

avg · max 9.4 kn

Gusts to 17.9 kn

From SSE (159°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover81% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1009.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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