Fordham University '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.27 (fleet 3.19) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.04 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 20–31 (39%) as crew 1–1 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 3–8 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 14–21 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (51 matches) the record is 20–31 against 27.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−7.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-16 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.54 | 1.93 | 2–4 | 2.6 | −0.62 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 2024-03-09 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.41 | 1.06 | 1–4 | 1.9 | −1.35 | 0.8 | 96% |
| 2023-04-08 | Prosser Trophy - MAISA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.46 | 3.66 | 3–2 | 1.8 | +1.21 | 1.1 | 22% |
| 2022-03-19 | Kings Point Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.05 | 0.93 | 5–10 | 8.2 | −1.12 | 2.5 | 99% |
| 2022-03-05 | Navy Team Race Invite | skipper | 1.77 | 0.91 | 9–11 | 12.8 | −0.85 | 2.4 | 98% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Beckett Kumler |  Culver Academies |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
