| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 6–1 |
| 2 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 5–2 |
| 3 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
George Washington University | Buff and Blue | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 2–5 |
| 8 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 1–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 20,956 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 20 of 29 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.551 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.06 ± 0.38: a typical event, more orderly than 36% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fordham University | 8.02 | 8.72 | 3–4 | 2.1 | +0.70 | 0.5 | 33% |
| 1 | Georgetown University | 10.23 | 10.83 | 6–1 | 5.4 | +0.60 | 0.2 | 50% |
| 6 | George Washington University | 7.52 | 8.01 | 2–5 | 1.4 | +0.49 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 2 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 9.74 | 10.14 | 6–2 | 5.4 | +0.40 | 0.2 | 49% |
| 7 | Old Dominion University | 7.83 | 7.97 | 2–5 | 1.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 3 | University of Pennsylvania | 9.53 | 9.57 | 5–3 | 4.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 4 | U. S. Naval Academy | 9.65 | 9.16 | 4–3 | 4.7 | −0.49 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 8 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 8.71 | 6.78 | 1–6 | 3.2 | −1.93 | 2.7 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beckett Kumler | Fordham University | 2.46 | 3.66 | 3–2 | 1.8 | +1.21 | 1.1 | 22% |
| Kenneth Corsig | Fordham University | 2.91 | 3.61 | 3–4 | 2.1 | +0.70 | 0.5 | 33% |
| Owen Hennessey | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.46 | 3.95 | 2–5 | 1.4 | +0.49 | 0.2 | 45% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | George Washington University | 1.98 | 2.47 | 2–5 | 1.4 | +0.49 | 0.2 | 45% |
| Noyl Odom | Old Dominion University | 2.57 | 2.71 | 2–5 | 1.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | Old Dominion University | 2.36 | 2.49 | 2–5 | 1.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Samuel Gavula | University of Pennsylvania | 2.85 | 2.89 | 5–3 | 4.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 64% |
| Cooper Walshe | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.90 | 2.41 | 4–3 | 4.7 | −0.49 | 0.2 | 85% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Seahawks | Quakers | Midshipmen | Rams | Blue | Monarchs | Statesmen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 6–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 6–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 5–3 | W | L | ✕ | W | L | W | L | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 3–4 | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W | L | W |
| George Washington University Buff and Blue | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 2–5 | L | L | W | L | W | L | ✕ | L |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Quakers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Buff and Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Quakers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Rams | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Rams | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-3-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Rams | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 1-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Statesmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Buff and Blue | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Quakers | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
