| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 3–1 |
| 2 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 2–2 |
| 4 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 2–2 |
| 5 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 19,057 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 7 of 12 matches (58%) with a log-loss of 0.723 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.76 ± 0.53: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 5% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 8.05 | 9.62 | 3–2 | 1.5 | +1.57 | 1.8 | 13% |
| 4 | Fordham University | 7.65 | 8.82 | 2–3 | 1.0 | +1.17 | 0.9 | 24% |
| 1 | Georgetown University | 9.90 | 10.00 | 4–1 | 3.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 3 | University of Pennsylvania | 9.85 | 8.80 | 3–2 | 3.9 | −1.05 | 0.7 | 95% |
| 5 | Cornell University | 8.52 | 5.52 | 0–4 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 3.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Corsig | Fordham University | 2.73 | 3.90 | 2–3 | 1.0 | +1.17 | 0.9 | 24% |
| Edward Cook | Georgetown University | 2.94 | 3.05 | 4–1 | 3.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 72% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Statesmen | Quakers | Rams | Red | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 3–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 2–2 | W | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 2–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Quakers | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Quakers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Red | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Quakers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | Edward Cook '23 Mariner Fagan '24 Mateo Di Blasi '25 Scott Mais '23 |
Audrey Fung '24 Xavier Stoldt '26 Emily Panarella '24 Diego Escobar '25 Spencer Kriegstein '25 Addi Harris '24 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '26 Nicholas Sessions '24 Will Murray '24 |
Richard Gleason '24 Rachel Duggan '25 Tess Weber '23 Frances Depke '25 Anna Mcbride '24 |
|
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | Christopher Sharpless '23 Javier Garcon '25 Jordan Bruce '24 |
Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse '26 Joshua Zeelander '24 Shaanti Choi-Bose '24 |
|
Fordham University | Rams | Kenneth Corsig '23 Patrick Dolan '25 Peter Lobaugh '24 |
Kristen Healy '24 Beckett Kumler '24 Lauren Miller '23 Bella Rabeni '24 |
|
Cornell University | Big Red | Bridget Green '25 Hayden Earl '25 Lauren Ehnot '24 Meredith Moran '23 |
Gabbi Delbello '23 Lucija Ruzevic '24 Sophia Mulvania '26 Amelia Neumann '25 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
