Georgetown University '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.91 (fleet 4.07) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.04 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 31–20 (61%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 8–4 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 15–12 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 8–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (51 matches) the record is 31–20 against 35.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-27 | College Sailing Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.94 | 2.34 | 1–2 | 1.4 | −0.60 | 0.1 | 87% |
| 2023-03-11 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.00 | 2.52 | 3–1 | 3.2 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 89% |
| 2023-03-04 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 2.94 | 3.05 | 4–1 | 3.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2022-03-26 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.96 | 2.72 | 2–2 | 2.2 | −0.24 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 2022-03-12 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.03 | 2.95 | 4–1 | 4.0 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 2022-03-05 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 2.89 | 2.36 | 9–9 | 10.8 | −0.53 | 0.7 | 89% |
| 2020-02-29 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 2.30 | 1.23 | 8–4 | 10.2 | −1.07 | 1.8 | 98% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
