| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 5–2 |
| 3 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 4–3 |
| 4 |  |
Connecticut College | Camels | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 4–3 |
| 6 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 3–4 |
| 7 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Mariners | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 19,442 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 31 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.409 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.09 ± 0.38: a typical event, more orderly than 33% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Williams University | 9.61 | 12.61 | 7–0 | 4.7 | ≥+3.00 | 4.3 | 4% |
| 5 | Fordham University | 7.92 | 8.99 | 4–5 | 2.8 | +1.07 | 1.0 | 20% |
| 7 | SUNY Maritime College | 5.67 | 5.90 | 1–6 | 0.9 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 79% |
| 2 | University of Pennsylvania | 9.80 | 9.83 | 5–2 | 5.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 3 | Georgetown University | 9.86 | 9.71 | 6–3 | 6.2 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 4 | Connecticut College | 9.68 | 8.98 | 5–4 | 6.1 | −0.70 | 0.5 | 90% |
| 6 | Boston College | 9.82 | 7.91 | 3–4 | 5.1 | −1.90 | 2.8 | 99% |
| 8 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 4.57 | 1.57 | 0–7 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos De Castro | Roger Williams University | 3.23 | 6.23 | 7–0 | 4.7 | ≥+3.00 | 4.3 | 4% |
| Kenneth Corsig | Fordham University | 2.80 | 3.87 | 4–5 | 2.8 | +1.07 | 1.0 | 20% |
| Ben Hosford | SUNY Maritime College | 1.52 | 1.75 | 1–6 | 0.9 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 79% |
| Edward Cook | Georgetown University | 3.00 | 2.52 | 3–1 | 3.2 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 89% |
| Thomas Whittemore | Connecticut College | 3.22 | 2.53 | 5–4 | 6.1 | −0.70 | 0.5 | 90% |
| Walter Henry | Connecticut College | 2.93 | 2.23 | 5–4 | 6.1 | −0.70 | 0.5 | 90% |
| Thomas Green | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 2.21 | -0.79 | 0–7 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Sunrae Sturmer | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 1.19 | -1.81 | 0–7 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Quakers | Hoyas | Camels | Rams | Eagles | Privateers | Mariners | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 7–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 5–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–3 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W |
| Connecticut College Camels | 4–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 4–3 | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 3–4 | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners | 0–7 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Camels | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| Connecticut College Camels | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Camels | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Camels | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Quakers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Camels | 2-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Camels | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Camels | 2-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Privateers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Hawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 2-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Camels | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Camels | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
