Boston College '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.25 (fleet 4.62) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.09 ± 0.14 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 227–127 (64%) as crew 7–1 (88%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 9 | 72–48 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 7 | 38–45 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 6 | 78–21 | 7–1 |
| Spring 2021 | 5 | 39–13 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 27 graded regattas (361 matches) the record is 233–128 against 238.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.1). 4 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 10 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 31 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-28 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.65 | 3.65 | 12–7 | 12.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2024-04-25 | ICSA Open Team Racing National Championship | skipper | 3.68 | 2.98 | 6–9 | 8.1 | −0.71 | 1.0 | 93% |
| 2024-04-13 | NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy | skipper | 3.39 | 3.21 | 11–6 | 11.5 | −0.18 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 2024-04-06 | NEISA Open Team Race Championship/Fowle | skipper | 3.31 | 3.42 | 8–10 | 7.6 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 51% |
| 2024-03-30 | The 41st Silver Grey Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.38 | 1.59 | 2–10 | 5.8 | −1.78 | 4.5 | >99% |
| 2024-03-23 | The Duplin Trophy | skipper | 3.42 | 2.57 | 8–4 | 9.4 | −0.84 | 0.9 | 94% |
| 2024-03-16 | Women's SNETR | skipper | 3.36 | 6.36 | 12–0 | 10.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.0 | 23% |
| 2024-03-09 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.35 | 4.16 | 6–1 | 5.3 | +0.81 | 0.4 | 44% |
| 2024-03-02 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.34 | 4.33 | 7–1 | 6.1 | +1.00 | 0.6 | 37% |
| 2023-04-29 | Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.23 | 3.18 | 8–8 | 8.2 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2023-04-15 | NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship | skipper | 3.16 | 2.97 | 8–8 | 8.6 | −0.19 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 2023-04-01 | The 40th Grey Lynne Marchiando Team Races | skipper | 3.12 | 2.75 | 5–9 | 5.9 | −0.37 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 2023-03-25 | Jan Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.14 | 2.56 | 5–11 | 6.6 | −0.57 | 0.7 | 89% |
| 2023-03-18 | Southern NE Team Race | skipper | 3.13 | 2.67 | 5–4 | 5.9 | −0.46 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2023-03-11 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.27 | 1.36 | 3–4 | 5.1 | −1.90 | 2.8 | 99% |
| 2023-03-05 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.33 | 3.82 | 4–1 | 3.7 | +0.49 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 2022-05-16 | College Sailing Team Race National Championship | crew | 3.31 | 5.08 | 7–1 | 4.7 | +1.77 | 2.6 | 7% |
| 2022-04-23 | Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.24 | 3.60 | 12–4 | 11.0 | +0.37 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 2022-04-02 | NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy | skipper | 3.04 | 4.04 | 18–3 | 15.1 | +0.99 | 2.0 | 9% |
| 2022-03-26 | Seahawk Women's Team Race InterConference | skipper | 3.26 | 2.75 | 13–5 | 14.5 | −0.52 | 0.6 | 89% |
| 2022-03-19 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 3.35 | 2.17 | 10–8 | 13.9 | −1.18 | 3.5 | 99% |
| 2022-03-05 | Green Wave Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.31 | 4.83 | 24–1 | 21.5 | +1.51 | 2.3 | 9% |
| 2021-04-25 | NEISA Team Race Championship for Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.02 | 4.10 | 8–4 | 5.6 | +1.08 | 1.9 | 10% |
| 2021-04-02 | BC Team Race | skipper | 3.06 | 2.15 | 7–8 | 9.5 | −0.91 | 1.6 | 96% |
| 2021-03-27 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 3.04 | 6.04 | 10–0 | 9.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 2021-03-14 | SMC Spring Fling Team Race | skipper | 2.92 | 3.38 | 9–1 | 8.6 | +0.46 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 2021-03-07 | St. Mary's TR Opener | skipper | 2.69 | 5.69 | 5–0 | 4.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 32% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Colleen O'Brien |  Rumson-Fair Haven |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
