Jan Friis Team Race

HostRoger Williams
Date03/25/2023
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	17–2
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	14–5
3	Harvard University	Crimson	13–6
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	11–8
5	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	7–9
6	Brown University	Bears	5–11
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	5–11
8	Boston College	Eagles	5–11
9	Tufts University	Jumbos	1–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 20,149 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 62 of 78 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.419 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.31 ± 0.22: an orderly event, more orderly than 77% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.30 school +0.27	Teddy Nicolosi / Anisha Arcot 3.57 Jack Egan / Nathan Sih 3.92 15–2 Carmen Cowles / Benjamin Markert 3.67 9–0 Stephan Baker / Meredith Ryan 3.40 4–2 Stephan Baker / Benjamin Markert 3.46 4–0 Jack Egan / Catherine Webb 3.87 2–0	79%	17–2 (89%)	+2.0
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	11.19 school +0.29, home +0.40	Carlos De Castro / Carly Kiss 3.49 Aidan Hoogland / Molly Matthews 3.51 12–5 Cameron Wood / Michaela Odonnell 3.50 6–5 Cameron Wood / Grace Woodcock 3.44 8–0 Aidan Hoogland / Hank Bailey 3.41 2–0	78%	14–5 (74%)	−0.8
3	Harvard University Crimson	3	10.78 school +0.25	Lachlain Mcgranahan / Christopher Wang 3.89 11–6 Mitchell Callahan / Grace Li 3.19 10–5 Dylan Ascencios / Alexandra Dorofeev 3.52 6–5 Dylan Ascencios / Tyler Masuyama 3.40 5–1 Dylan Ascencios / Eric Hansen 3.34 2–0 Lachlain Mcgranahan / Tyler Masuyama 3.93 2–0 Mitchell Callahan / Aidan Pesce 3.13 2–0 Eric Hansen / Grace Li 2.80 1–1	69%	13–6 (68%)	−0.2
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4	9.63 school −0.07	Colman Schofield / Charles Mason 3.35 Daniel Unangst / Jack Farrell 3.30 Matthew Kickhafer / Charles Pohl 3.02	45%	11–8 (58%)	+2.5
5	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5	9.28 school +0.06	Thomas Hall / Hattie Slayton 3.24 Christopher Lukens / Timmy Gee 3.08 6–4 Thibault Antonietti / Meghan Gonzalez 2.92 6–4 Christopher Lukens / Kique Ruiz 3.00 1–5 Thibault Antonietti / Timmy Gee 2.91 1–5	42%	7–9 (44%)	+0.3
6	Brown University Bears	8	8.95 school +0.18	Jed Bell / Menasha Leport 2.93 Hunter Zonnenberg / Hannah Sellers 2.96 3–9 Leyton Borcherding / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 2.96 4–8 Thomas Styron / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 2.69 1–3 Hunter Zonnenberg / Brianna Ross 2.86 2–2	35%	5–11 (31%)	−0.6
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	7	9.09	Maks Groom / Wendy Wu 3.00 3–9 Julius Heitkoetter / Abigail Vanlonkhuyzen 2.73 2–8 Sam Bruce / Maaya Prasad 3.44 2–8 Julius Heitkoetter / Jemma Schroder 2.69 3–3 Maks Groom / Nicholas Abate 2.92 2–2 Sam Bruce / Alexander Horne 3.33 2–2 Sam Bruce / Nicholas Abate 3.41 1–1	38%	5–11 (31%)	−1.0
8	Boston College Eagles	6	9.26 school +0.21	Colleen O'Brien / John (Jack) Plavan 3.14 Peter Busch / Lily Ornstein 2.99 Peter Joslin / Sara Schumann 2.87	41%	5–11 (31%)	−1.6
9	Tufts University Jumbos	9	7.36 school +0.08	Bryan Trammell / Leo Terry 2.61 Adrien Bellanger / Cecilia Adams 2.28 Jack Flores / Matthew Caplan 2.35	10%	1–15 (6%)	−0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Yale University	11.30	12.26	17–2	15.0	+0.96	1.3	17%
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	9.63	10.35	11–8	8.5	+0.72	1.3	14%
5	Bowdoin College	9.28	9.38	7–9	6.7	+0.10	0.0	54%
3	Harvard University	10.78	10.72	13–6	13.2	−0.05	0.0	65%
6	Brown University	8.95	8.72	5–11	5.6	−0.22	0.1	74%
2	Roger Williams University	11.19	10.93	14–5	14.8	−0.26	0.1	78%
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	9.09	8.71	5–11	6.0	−0.38	0.3	82%
9	Tufts University	7.36	6.82	1–15	1.6	−0.54	0.2	83%
8	Boston College	9.26	8.69	5–11	6.6	−0.57	0.7	89%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.67	6.67	9–0	7.5	≥+3.00	2.4	17%
Thibault Antonietti	Bowdoin College	2.92	3.02	7–9	6.7	+0.10	0.0	54%
Dylan Ascencios	Harvard University	3.52	3.46	13–6	13.2	−0.05	0.0	65%
Jed Bell	Brown University	2.93	2.71	5–11	5.6	−0.22	0.1	74%
Aidan Hoogland	Roger Williams University	3.51	3.25	14–5	14.8	−0.26	0.1	78%
Carlos De Castro	Roger Williams University	3.49	3.23	14–5	14.8	−0.26	0.1	78%
Bryan Trammell	Tufts University	2.61	2.07	1–15	1.6	−0.54	0.2	83%
Adrien Bellanger	Tufts University	2.28	1.74	1–15	1.6	−0.54	0.2	83%
Peter Joslin	Boston College	2.87	2.30	5–11	6.6	−0.57	0.7	89%
Thomas Styron	Brown University	2.69	1.07	1–3	2.2	−1.63	1.3	98%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Yale University	Harvard University	64%
1	2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	17%	upset
1	3	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	55%
1	4	Brown University	Boston College	45%	upset
1	5	Yale University	Tufts University	98%
1	6	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	41%	upset
1	7	Bowdoin College	Brown University	57%
1	8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston College	60%
1	9	Harvard University	Tufts University	97%
1	10	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	91%
1	11	Roger Williams University	Boston College	87%
1	12	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	58%
1	13	Yale University	Brown University	92%
1	14	Boston College	Tufts University	87%
1	15	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	85%
1	16	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	70%
1	17	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	85%
1	18	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	83%
1	19	Yale University	Boston College	88%
1	20	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	82%
1	21	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	91%
1	22	Roger Williams University	Brown University	89%
1	23	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	46%	upset
1	24	Yale University	Bowdoin College	88%
1	25	Brown University	Harvard University	21%	upset
1	26	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	98%
1	27	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	63%
1	28	Boston College	Bowdoin College	51%
1	29	Yale University	Roger Williams University	49%	upset
1	30	Brown University	Tufts University	79%
1	31	Harvard University	Boston College	83%
1	32	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	82%
1	33	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	89%
1	34	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	88%
1	35	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	78%
1	36	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	45%	upset
2	37	Yale University	Harvard University	64%
2	38	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	83%
2	39	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	45%	upset
2	40	Brown University	Boston College	44%	upset
2	41	Yale University	Tufts University	98%
2	42	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	59%
2	43	Bowdoin College	Boston College	49%	upset
2	44	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	70%
2	45	Harvard University	Tufts University	97%
2	46	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	91%
2	47	Roger Williams University	Brown University	89%
2	48	Bowdoin College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	42%	upset
2	49	Yale University	Boston College	88%
2	50	Tufts University	Brown University	21%	upset
2	51	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	85%
2	52	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston College	59%
2	53	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	85%
2	54	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	83%
2	55	Yale University	Brown University	92%
2	56	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	82%
2	57	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	90%
2	58	Roger Williams University	Boston College	87%
2	59	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	55%
2	60	Yale University	Bowdoin College	88%
2	61	Boston College	Harvard University	17%	upset
2	62	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	98%
2	63	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	63%
2	64	Bowdoin College	Brown University	57%
2	65	Roger Williams University	Yale University	52%
2	66	Boston College	Tufts University	87%
2	67	Harvard University	Brown University	79%
2	68	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	82%
2	69	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	89%
2	70	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	87%
2	71	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	78%
2	72	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	54%
4	73	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	83%
4	74	Yale University	Harvard University	64%
4	75	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	41%	upset
4	76	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Yale University	18%	upset
4	77	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	78%
4	78	Yale University	Roger Williams University	48%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hawks	Crimson	Bears	Bears	Bears	Engineers	Eagles	Jumbos
Yale University Bulldogs	8–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–3	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	6–2	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	6–2	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W
Brown University Bears	4–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Boston College Eagles	2–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
Tufts University Jumbos	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hawks	Crimson	Bears	Bears	Bears	Engineers	Eagles	Jumbos
Yale University Bulldogs	7–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	8–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	5–3	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–4	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	L
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–5	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L	W
Boston College Eagles	3–5	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Tufts University Jumbos	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hawks	Crimson	Bears
Yale University Bulldogs	2–1	✕	W	W	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	1–2	L	✕	L	W
Harvard University Crimson	2–1	L	W	✕	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	1–2	W	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
2	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
3	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
4	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
6	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
7	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
8	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
9	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
10	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
11	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
12	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6 DNF
13	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
14	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
15	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
16	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
17	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
18	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
19	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
20	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
21	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
22	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
23	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6 DNF
24	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
25	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
26	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
27	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
28	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-5
29	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
30	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
31	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
32	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
33	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
34	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
35	Crimson	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
36	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Engineers	1-4-6
37	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
38	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6 DNF
39	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
40	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
41	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
42	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
43	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
44	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
45	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
46	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
47	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
48	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
49	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
50	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
51	Crimson	2-3-5	def.	Engineers	1-4-6
52	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
53	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
54	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
55	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
56	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
57	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
58	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
59	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
60	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
61	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
62	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
63	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
64	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
65	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
66	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
67	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
68	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
69	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
70	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
71	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
72	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
73	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
74	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
75	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
76	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
77	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
78	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carmen Cowles '25 Jack Egan '25 Stephan Baker '26 Teddy Nicolosi '24	Benjamin Markert '23 Nathan Sih '25 Catherine Webb '23 Meredith Ryan '23 Anisha Arcot '23
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Aidan Hoogland '24 Cameron Wood '22 Carlos De Castro '26	Molly Matthews '23 Hank Bailey '24 Michaela Odonnell '24 Grace Woodcock '23 Carly Kiss '25
Harvard University	Crimson	Dylan Ascencios '24 Eric Hansen '23 Lachlain Mcgranahan '24 Mitchell Callahan '26	Alexandra Dorofeev '25 Tyler Masuyama '23 Eric Hansen '23 Grace Li '25 Christopher Wang '23 Aidan Pesce '26
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Colman Schofield '25 Daniel Unangst '24 Matthew Kickhafer '23	Charles Mason '23 Jack Farrell '23 Charles Pohl '26
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Christopher Lukens '23 Thibault Antonietti '24 Thomas Hall '25	Kique Ruiz '26 Timmy Gee '25 Meghan Gonzalez '23 Hattie Slayton '23
Brown University	Bears	Hunter Zonnenberg '23 Jed Bell '23 Leyton Borcherding '25 Thomas Styron '24	Hannah Sellers '26 Brianna Ross '26 Menasha Leport '25 Caroline Keeffe-Jones '26
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Julius Heitkoetter '25 Maks Groom '24 Sam Bruce '24	Abigail Vanlonkhuyzen '23 Jemma Schroder '24 Nicholas Abate '25 Wendy Wu '23 Alexander Horne '26 Maaya Prasad '22
Boston College	Eagles	Colleen O'Brien '24 Peter Busch '26 Peter Joslin '26	John (Jack) Plavan '23 Lily Ornstein '26 Sara Schumann '25
Tufts University	Jumbos	Adrien Bellanger '25 Bryan Trammell '23 Jack Flores '25	Cecilia Adams '23 Leo Terry '25 Matthew Caplan '25

Conditions — 03/25/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 75% · Pressure 1018.6 hPa

Temperature

41°F

↑ 43°F ↓ 39°F

Feels like 32°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.0 kn

avg · max 14.9 kn

Gusts to 22.4 kn

From E (99°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.0 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1018.6 hPa Rain0.15 in Snow0.06 in

What this breeze does at Roger Williams — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Roger Williams in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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