Tufts University '23
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.96 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 50 | Fall 2022 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.37 (fleet 3.34) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.05 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 38–58 (40%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 4 | 15–33 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 15–9 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 2 | 8–16 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (96 matches) the record is 38–58 against 42.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-08 | Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.59 | 2.73 | 6–2 | 5.8 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2023-03-25 | Jan Friis Team Race | skipper | 2.61 | 2.07 | 1–15 | 1.6 | −0.54 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2023-03-11 | Wood Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.68 | 1.71 | 5–9 | 7.2 | −0.97 | 1.5 | 96% |
| 2023-03-05 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 2.75 | 1.42 | 3–7 | 5.4 | −1.33 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 2022-04-09 | Mystic Lake TR | skipper | 2.27 | 4.02 | 12–2 | 7.9 | +1.75 | 4.7 | 1% |
| 2022-04-02 | Yale TR @ Connecticut College | skipper | 2.26 | 1.73 | 1–5 | 1.5 | −0.52 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2022-03-05 | Hap Moore | skipper | 2.35 | 2.50 | 2–2 | 1.9 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2021-10-30 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 2.28 | 1.65 | 4–5 | 5.2 | −0.63 | 0.6 | 90% |
| 2021-10-23 | Norman G. Reid Team Race | skipper | 1.96 | 1.42 | 4–11 | 5.5 | −0.53 | 0.6 | 88% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.6 | 3.15 |
| Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| Jan Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 6% | — |
| 85th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.8 | 3.25 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.7 | 3.62 |
| Rudi Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.4 | 3.46 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.5 | 2.58 |
| Montotype Trophy - NEISA Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.6 | 3.60 |
| The Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.0 | 4.34 |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.0 | 3.12 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale TR @ Connecticut College | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Spring Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.8 | 2.66 |
| Mystic Lake TR | Skipper | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| Hap Moore | Skipper | TR | 16 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Ester | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.6 | 2.47 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.9 | 1.14 |
| Norman G. Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Montotype Trophy - NEISA Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.3 | 3.44 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.5 | 3.42 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.6 | 2.20 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Men's Open Singlehanded National Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 19.2 | 3.25 |
| Dinghy Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.6 | 1.66 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.0 | 3.87 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.4 | 1.46 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.3 | 1.57 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.9 | 3.11 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.6 | 2.49 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.0 | 3.15 |
| The Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 6.5 | 2.61 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.1 | 2.33 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
