Dinghy Invite

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 67
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 68
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbros 71
4 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 113
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbabies 126
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbo Ladies 132
7 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 158
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya B 1 4 7 3 1 1 2 19 Saurabh Pal '24
George Sidamon-Eristoff '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbros A 5 1 3 2 4 2 9 26 Trevor Davis '24
Alessandra Torres '24
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 3 5 9 1 6 3 1 28 Patrick Mulcahy '23
Delilah Roberts '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 2 3 5 10 3 8 8 39 Bryan Trammell '23
Cecilia Adams '23
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 A 9 7 6 8 5 4 6 45 Claire Havig '21
Jillian Galloway '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbros B 12 8 1 4 7 10 3 45 Connor Rosow '24
Adelaide Straub '24
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya A 13 10 2 5 2 7 10 49 Niall Sheridan '23
Sara Morrison '23
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbabies B 10 14 4 9 9 6 4 56 Amelia Carlson '24
Dorothy Waskow '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbo Ladies B 8 12 11 7 8 5 13 64 Ege Ozgul '23
Paige Tyler '22
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 A 7 11 13 6 13 9 7 66 Jonathan Chance '23 [1-7]
Alex Kitay '23 [1-6]
Elijah Berger '21 [7]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbo Ladies A 6 2 12 12 10 14 12 68 Lera Anders '22
Rose O'Neal '22
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 B 4 6 14 11 11 11 11 68 Christine Reimer '24
Eliza Jevon '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbabies A 11 9 8 13 12 12 5 70 Samantha Jensen '24 [1-4]
Madeline Simms '23 [5-7]
Hailey Mckelvie '22 [1-4]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 B 14 13 10 14 14 13 14 92 Preston Anderson '22 [1-4]
Noah Lipnick '21 [5-7]
Elijah Berger '21 [1-6]
Alex Kitay '23 [7]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (39 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 11111111
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 22222222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbabies4444444
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya7777777
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbo Ladies5555555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos3333333
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbros8888888

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 111111111111111
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 212121212121212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbabies14141414141414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya17171717171717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbo Ladies16161616161616
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos13131313131313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbros18181818181818

Conditions — 04/18/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1007.7 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.0 kn
avg  ·  max 9.5 kn
Gusts to 19.4 kn
From NW (313°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1007.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.05 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.36 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →