| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 8–1 |
| 2 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 4–5 |
| 3 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 4–5 |
| 4 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 2–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 15,849 team race matches sailed before 2021-10-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 18 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.579 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.05 ± 0.55: a typical event, more orderly than 47% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yale University Bulldogs | 1 | 8.50 school +0.20, home +0.35 | Christophe Chaumont / Sydney Zoehrer 2.35 Megan Grimes / Alexandra Contomichalos 2.65 Nicholas Davies / Becca Rose 2.88 | 65% | 8–1 (89%) | +2.1 |
| 2 | Brown University Bears | 3 | 8.27 school +0.20 | Jed Bell / Charlotte Costikyan 2.84 Brielle Willoughby / Emilia Ruth Thomas Styron / Izzy Cox | 58% | 4–5 (44%) | −1.2 |
| 3 | Tufts University Jumbos | 2 | 8.27 school +0.06 | Connor Sheridan / Harper Mckerrow 2.93 Bryan Trammell / Adelaide Straub 2.28 Trevor Davis / Henry Tindall 2.94 | 58% | 4–5 (44%) | −1.2 |
| 4 | University of Rhode Island Rams | 4 | 6.83 school −0.25 | Henry Lee / Jack Honan 2.10 Joshua Bartoszuk / Anika Martz 2.17 Ben Rosenberg / Halle Peterlin 2.69 | 18% | 2–7 (22%) | +0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yale University | 8.50 | 10.01 | 8–1 | 5.9 | +1.52 | 2.0 | 12% |
| 4 | University of Rhode Island | 6.83 | 7.10 | 2–7 | 1.6 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 3 | Tufts University | 8.27 | 7.63 | 4–5 | 5.2 | −0.63 | 0.6 | 90% |
| 2 | Brown University | 8.27 | 7.63 | 4–5 | 5.3 | −0.64 | 0.6 | 90% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Davies | Yale University | 2.88 | 4.40 | 8–1 | 5.9 | +1.52 | 2.0 | 12% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | University of Rhode Island | 2.17 | 2.44 | 2–7 | 1.6 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Ben Rosenberg | University of Rhode Island | 2.69 | 2.96 | 2–7 | 1.6 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Bryan Trammell | Tufts University | 2.28 | 1.65 | 4–5 | 5.2 | −0.63 | 0.6 | 90% |
| Jed Bell | Brown University | 2.84 | 2.20 | 4–5 | 5.3 | −0.64 | 0.6 | 90% |
| Thomas Styron | Brown University | 2.13 | 1.49 | 4–5 | 5.3 | −0.64 | 0.6 | 90% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Bulldogs | Bears | Jumbos | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale University Bulldogs | 2–1 | ✕ | W | W | L |
| Brown University Bears | 1–2 | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 2–1 | L | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 1–2 | W | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bulldogs | Bears | Jumbos | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale University Bulldogs | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 1–2 | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 1–2 | L | W | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bulldogs | Bears | Jumbos | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale University Bulldogs | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Rams | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Yale University | Bulldogs | Christophe Chaumont '23 Megan Grimes '24 Nicholas Davies '24 |
Sydney Zoehrer '24 Alexandra Contomichalos '22 Becca Rose '22 |
|
Brown University | Bears | Brielle Willoughby '24 Jed Bell '23 Thomas Styron '24 |
Emilia Ruth '23 Charlotte Costikyan '24 Izzy Cox '23 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos | Bryan Trammell '23 Connor Sheridan '22 Trevor Davis '24 |
Adelaide Straub '24 Harper Mckerrow '23 Henry Tindall '25 |
|
University of Rhode Island | Rams | Ben Rosenberg '23 Henry Lee '24 Joshua Bartoszuk '25 |
Halle Peterlin '24 Jack Honan '23 Anika Martz '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
